This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, August 23
- Year-to-Date Record: 138-139-1
- Prior Article: 1-3 (-3.25 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Use the RotoWire MLB odds page to ensure you have the best odds when placing bets on the best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Houston Astros 
at Baltimore Orioles 
It is hard to go against the Orioles as home dogs, but this is an extremely lopsided pitching matchup and the Orioles are just 9-11 this month while the Astros are 13-6.
Hunter Brown is one of my favorites, and I will go back to him again in this spot. Since June 8th, Brown is third in WAR at 2.5, just behind Michael King and Chris Sale. Cade Povich has a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He is only pitching because of all the injuries to the Orioles' pitching staff.
Povich could have a short leash in a game in which the Astros then get to go up against the Orioles' awful bullpen. Their team total over is also in play.
This is a very low price to pay for the Astros on the road. I have it priced more in the -130 to -140 range.
MLB Picks for Astros at Orioles
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-115 BetMGM)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Boston Red Sox 
I usually look at backing the Red Sox against a right-handed pitcher either on the Moneyline, game total over or team total over. But the total in this game is 9.5 and even up to 10 in some spots, which is too rich for me.
This game also features another one of my favorite pitchers to back in Ryne Nelson. He's been the fourth-best pitcher in baseball since July 1st, according to WAR because he limits walks and home runs. Brayan Bello has pitched much better lately but he struggles at home against left-handed bats. The Diamondbacks have been the hottest offense in baseball against right-handers at 145 wRC+ this month.
Baseball is a game of high variance and pain at times (look at my results over the last few articles), but it is also a game of value. This line should be more in the even price range, so grab the Diamondbacks.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Red Sox
- Diamondbacks ML for 1 unit (+114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Kansas City Royals 
The Royals are a top-three offense at home and rank second in wRC+ against righties in the last month. They are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games with an average of 5.0 runs per game.
Taijuan Walker has allowed at least three runs in seven out of his last eight starts and has some gross numbers in that stretch. Since May 22, Walker has an ERA of 6.13, a 1.56 WHIP, a 4.8 BB/9 and a 2.3 HR/9.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Royals
- Royals OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros ML for 1 unit (-115 BetMGM)
- Dbacks ML for 1 unit (+114 FanDuel)
- Royals OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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