This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Sunday, Aug. 27
The MLB season is rounding turn four and heading for the stretch run and many teams maintain realistic playoff aspirations. In the NL, the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers lead their respective divisions by double digits in games and are the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series. However, there are six teams within 6.5 games of each other fighting earn one of the three wild card berths. Currently, the Philadelphia Phillies, led by a scorching hot Bryce Harper and a reignited Trea Turner, are the top wild card team with a three-game lead over the Chicago Cubs and a 3.5-game lead over the resurgent Arizona Diamondbacks.
In the AL, all division championships are up for grabs except perhaps the Central, which the Minnesota Twins, who are only four games over .500, lead by six games over the fledgling Cleveland Guardians. The Baltimore Orioles have the top record in the AL at 81-48 and are winners of four straight and seven of their last 10 games, but they lead by just three games over the Tampa Bay Rays. Then there is the Wild West with three teams in a dead heat entering Sunday's action. The Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners and reigning world champion Houston Astros all have won 73 games, but the Rangers and Mariners have 56 losses, while the Astros have 58.
In the AL Wild card race, the Rays enjoy a five-game lead over the Rangers and Mariners. Chasing these three teams that own the three wild card berths are the Astros, who are a single game behind, the Toronto Blue Jays, who are 2.5 games behind, and the Boston Red Sox, who are just 4.5 games back with about 30 to 35 games remaining on their schedules. So, the race to finish may be one of the most exciting in MLB history.
Will the 
Diamondbacks and 
Reds Both Make the Playoffs?
The Reds will look to even their four-game series against the host Diamondbacks on Sunday. The Diamondbacks won the first two games of the series by scores of 3-2 in Game 1 and 10-8 in Game 2 and extended their win streak to six games. The Reds responded with grit in a must-win situation Saturday by the final of 8-7 in 11 innings, scoring the winning run on a balk.
The Reds trailed 4-0 through five innings and found a way to tie the game and send it to extra innings. The Reds seemingly were on the verge of a win after scoring three runs in the top of the 10th inning. Still, the Diamondbacks rallied back with three runs of their own, with the tying run being scored on a sacrifice fly to deep center by Christian Walker that off the bat appeared to be a game-winning walk-off home run. The drama of this game is a snapshot of what is in store for MLB fans over the remainder of the season, and for the Reds and Diamondbacks fans, they get to do it all over again Sunday.
Despite the heavy use of their bullpen, the Reds unit has done quite well, posting a 2.96 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over their last five games. The same cannot be said of the Diamondbacks relievers, who have struggled to a 5.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over their previous five games. In a game that both managers will look to win, the bullpen edge goes to the Reds.
What Do We Need to Know About the Starting Pitchers?
The Reds will send right-hander Graham Ashcraft to the hill to make his 25th start. He is 7-8 on the season with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, recording 100 strikeouts and 50 walks over 134 innings of work. However, he has pitched his best baseball recently, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with 19 strikeouts and a much better five walks allowed over his last three starts.
The Diamondbacks will have newcomer Slade Cecconi on the hill, who is making his third start. He allowed two earned runs in each of his previous two starts but completed fewer than five innings in each one. He is primarily a fastball and slider pitcher but will occasionally mix in a change and curve, accounting for 10 percent of his pitches thrown. He does not throw hard and his spin rates are average at the MLB level, and I do believe the Reds will get to him early in this game. Whichever team gets the opponent's starter out of the game will have a significant advantage in winning the game.
Supporting Trends and Angles
Reds starter Ashcraft is 11-6, making a whopping 13 units per unit bet using the moneyline, when priced as a road underdog in all starts made over the past two seasons.
Ashcraft is 6-0, making 11 units-per-unit wagered, when starting on the road on Sundays over the past two seasons.
The Reds are 33-18, making 21 units, when facing a team with a bullpen posting an ERA of 4.20 or higher on the season.
The Diamondbacks are 12-6 in going under the posted total following games in which they used six or more pitchers this season.
The Reds are 9-4-1 in hitting the under following a game this season in which they used six or more pitchers.
My best bet on this matchup is to play the Under, currently priced at 9 runs. I also recommend betting 80 percent of your bet size pre-flop and then looking to add 20 percent if there is a run scored in the first inning. I also like betting one unit that there will be a first-inning run scored.
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Reds at Diamondbacks Under 9 runs (DraftKings -105)
- Reds at Diamondbacks Over 0.5 runs scored in the first inning (DraftKings -130)
