This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Props for Saturday, Aug. 19
Saturdays are for winners. It's a crucial AL West matchup happening this weekend. Time to get back in the winner's circle.
Seattle Mariners (+136) @ Houston Astros (-162) | Over/Under 8
This has become one of the better matchups over the last couple of seasons. Seattle turned towards an upward trajectory in 2021, but leveling up has eluded them a bit. They face the team that broke their hearts in the playoffs last season, the Houston Astros. The Astros no doubt have been the big brother in this division rivalry, but don't sleep on the little brother.
The M's pulled out a close 2-0 victory on Friday night behind a stellar pitching performance from Bryce Miller. They now hand the ball to Logan Gilbert, or the modern day Pennywise lookalike. Gilbert is coming off a bad outing against the Royals, so tonight looks like a great opportunity to bounce back. Gilbert has definitely had more success on the road (3.51 ERA) than at home (4.15) this season. In his last start at Houston on July 9th, he spun a marvelous seven innings, allowing only three hits and one earned run. He's also working on five consecutive quality starts (regular season) against the defending World Champs. Does he live by the Vince Carter meme of "I got one more in me?"
There have been few teams hotter than Seattle over the last month. Having won 12 of their last 15 games, the Mariners have surged back into the thick of the AL playoff race and even have an outside shot at the division, sitting five games back. This is what Astros' stud Framber Valdez has to put up with tonight. Valdez has been good but not great in 2023. In his last six starts, Valdez has surrendered at least four earned runs five times and at least five runs on three occasions. Framber has definitely been better at home this season (2.44 ERA) compared to his 4.43 road ERA. How Valdez deals with Julio Rodriguez will be key this evening. Over the course of J-Rod's career, he's 0-9 against the Southpaw, seeing tons of changeups and breaking stuff. Rodriguez has collected an astonishing 13 hits over his last 16 at-bats, so if the Astros want to keep Seattle at bay, it starts with him.
Seattle has been my World Series pick since the preseason, and after a lot of lollygagging, they're finally making their move. Taking down Houston is no easy feat, but the M's definitely have the horses to do it. The Mermen are only 2.5 games behind Houston in the division race, and a series win would certainly go a long way in gaining ground. I think the boys from the Pacific Northwest keep this gravy train rolling.
Pick: Mariners moneyline (DraftKings +136)
