This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Free Expert Picks for Saturday, Sept. 9
The Major League Baseball regular season is down to the final 20 to 23 games for the 30 teams involved. The Baltimore Orioles currently have the best record in the American League with 88 wins and 51 losses and have outscored their opponents by 112 runs on the season. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games and on a current five-game-winning streak, which has increased their American League East division lead to four games over the Tampa Bay Rays.
In the American League wild-card race, the Tampa Bay Rays or near certainty to make the playoffs enjoying a 7.5 game lead over the Seattle Mariners, who have a minuscule one-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays and a 1.5 game lead over the Texas Rangers. Three of those four teams will earn the three available wild-card spots.
In the National League, the Atlanta Braves have the best record in the league and in all of baseball with 92 wins and have won seven of their last 10 games. Next in line are the Los Angeles Dodgers with 86 wins, who lead the National League West by a comfortable 13 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the National League Central, the Cincinnati Reds have been slowly fading out of playoff contention and are currently three games over .500, winning five of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the surging Chicago Cubs are now 10 games over .500 and only three games behind divisional leader Milwaukee Brewers, who have 78 wins.
In the NL wild-card race, the Philadelphia Phillies have the top spot with 77 wins and a four-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently hold the third wild-card berth. Sandwiched in between are the Chicago Cubs, who sit in the second wild-card slot. However, there are three teams chasing down the Arizona Diamondbacks for that third spot, including the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins. So there will be an abundance of excitement and drama for fans of these playoff contenders down the home stretch.
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The Cubs Are a Real Contender
The Chicago Cubs will be hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday in an extremely important game and series for each team, given the tight playoff picture discussed above. Let's get right to the analytics and betting systems that support a best-bet opportunity on the Cubs using the moneyline.
Betting on the moneyline on home teams when (a) their last game featured a total of three or fewer runs, (b) their opponent scored two or fewer runs in their previous game and (c) the game has a posted total of seven or fewer runs has earned a solid 66-50 record (57 percent), averaging a -108 wager and earning an 11 percent ROI in games played over the past five seasons. If our home team is a favorite of -150 or more, the record improves to 25-12 for 68 percent winning bets and a 15 percent ROI over the past five seasons.
The Diamondbacks are coming off a 1-0 win Friday night in Chicago, setting the stage for the system mentioned above to be in effect. The total for this game is currently priced at seven runs. This best-bet opportunity on the Chicago Cubs to bounce back with a win today is not disqualified if the total rises to 7.5 runs. I'm expecting the Chicago Cubs to bounce back with a solid offensive performance and betting them using the moneyline on Saturday.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Cubs
- Cubs Moneyline (PointsBet -140)
