This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks and Props for
Friday, July 19
YTD 114-111-1
Prior article 1-2 ( -1.30 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Houston Astros 
at Seattle Mariners 
Sometimes there are pitchers that you just gravitate to and have success with. For me, Hunter Brown has been that guy. His season-long stats are misleading because of his rough April, but from May 5 on he has been lights out. In 13 starts and 75 innings, Brown has a 2.75 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
While the Mariners are strong at home (30-18), they are just 11-7 since June 1. Luis Castillo has much better splits at home versus on the road, like most Mariners pitchers (2.98 ERA/1.04 WHIP against 4.11 ERA/1.30 WHIP). Both pitchers are in good spots, but this Mariners' lineup just does not hit, which is why I like the Astros getting about EVEN money on the road in a low-scoring game.
The last five out of six games in this series have gone UNDER. Seattle's record at home is 31-17 to the UNDER. Both pitching staffs are fully rested, which also has me leaning toward the UNDER.
MLB Picks for Astros at Mariners
- Astros ML for 1.5 unit (BetMGM +100)
- Astros/Mariners UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -102)
Boston Red Sox 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
The Red Sox are playing better baseball right now, with a 21-9 record in their last 30 games, while the Dodgers are 3-7 in their last 10 and just .500 in their last 30. The Red Sox are also 10-2 on the road in their last 12.
The splits are also favoring the Red Sox, as they are 41-27 against right-handed pitching, while the Dodgers crush lefties, but struggle against righties (31-31).
I do worry about Nick Pivetta giving up the long ball, which is why I am also on the OVER in this game. I expect a close game and would even think it will be a one-run game decided last in the 5-4 range.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Dodgers
- Red Sox/Dodgers OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +108)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Texas Rangers 
The Orioles have hit a bit of a rough patch lately, going 3-7 in their last 10 and are just 14-16 in their last 30. But they have been strong on the road and against right-handed pitching all season. Plus, you get the All-Star Game starting pitcher in Corbin Burnes at a short price on the road.
It is hard to get a read on the Rangers, who could be buyers or sellers in the next two weeks, but Nathan Eovaldi has been solid in his last seven starts.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Rangers
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -120)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros ML for 1.5 unit (BetMGM +100)
- Astros/Mariners UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -102)
- Red Sox/Dodgers OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +108)
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -120)
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