Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As promised, the Minor League Barometer will start to mix in evaluations and profiles of some lesser-known prospects. To start off, here are a few with stellar starts to the season who should be talked about more.

• Joey Loperfido in the Astros organization has already notched five homers at Triple-A
• Don't look now, but the Dodgers may have yet another pop-up teenaged prospect in Zyhir Hope. Acquired in the Michael Busch deal last offseason from the Cubs, Hope has gone 5-for-12 (.417) with three home runs in three games at Low-A.
• Baltimore pitching prospect Cade Povich should be getting more publicity. He fanned 171 batters in 2023 and has looked even more polished in two starts thus far at Triple-A.
• Noah Schultz recorded 10 of 12 outs via the strikeout during his High-A debut in the White Sox system. He offers incredible pure stuff, though questions remain about his health.

Let's take a look at some other neophytes making headlines in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Heston Kjerstad, OF, BAL – As if the Baltimore organization didn't already have enough elite hitting coming through the pipeline, Kjerstad is off to a scalding start at Triple-A Norfolk hitting .462 with six homers and 25 RBI through nine games. The Norfolk lineup is filled with great prospect performances with Jackson Holliday, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers also raking so far. With Austin Hays and Anthony Santander struggling, it may only be a matter of time before the youth movement is in full effect for the Orioles.

Wilfred Veras, OF, CHW – Vargas has the chance to be one of 2024's breakout prospects. He displayed flashes at the end of last year where he batted .309 with six home runs, 30 RBI and six steals across 38 Double-A appearances. Vargas also turned 21 years of age in the offseason. He returned to Double-A and has already clubbed two homers through three games while going 6-for-11. In a shallow White Sox farm system, Vargas could gain some serious helium with continued success.

Colby Thomas, OF, OAK – A third-round pick out of Mercer in 2022, the knock on Thomas was the level of competition he faced at the collegiate level in the Southern Conference. However, he had a solid first full campaign splitting time between Low-A and Double-A slashing .286/.351/.493 with 18 home runs, 83 RBI and 25 steals over 126 outing. Thomas started 2024 at Double-A, where he's gone 5-for-12 with two home runs and one steal in three contests. Perhaps more importantly, he'd drawn two walks without any strikeouts. Thomas was punched out 146 times last year while only managing 37 free passes. If he can show a little more patience at the dish, he could emerge as an intriguing up-and-comer.

Christian Scott, P, NYM – The Mets' top pitching prospect dazzled during the spring after rocketing up three levels in 2023. Scott fanned nine batters over four innings in his debut at Triple-A Syracuse. Given the Mets' rotation injuries, he could make his MLB premiere sooner rather than later, especially if the club continue to struggle.

CHECK STATUS

Justin Foscue, 2B/3B, TEX – The injury to Josh Jung opened the door for Foscue to make his MLB debut, where he recorded his first hit on Sunday. He crushed 18 homers and stole 14 bases at Triple-A in 122 contests last season. Foscue's best asset is his handle of the strike zone having accumulated more walks (85) than strikeouts (70). He should receive some unanticipated playing time due to Jung's injury, though it remains to be seen how productive he can be from a fantasy perspective as he only offers mediocre power and below-average speed.  Add in Foscue's limitations in the field, and he'll essentially need to hit for a high average to make for a worthwhile everyday contributor.

Owen Murphy, P, ATL – Murphy excelled in his first start of the season at High-A Rome. The 20-year-old only gave up two hits over 6.2 scoreless innings while issuing one walk and striking out eight. Murphy produced a decent, albeit unspectacular, first full campaign last year in 2023 by posting a 4.72 ERA mostly at Low-A. He flashed strikeout potential, but allowed a few too many baserunners. A first-rounder from 2022, expectations are still high for Murphy to develop into a potential ace, yet he remains inconsistent and is unlikely to be rushed to the bigs.

Ryan Bliss, SS, SEA – Bliss was acquired in last year's Paul Sewald deal and has boasted an intriguing power/speed combination despite his 5'7" frame. He's racked up 23 home runs across 128 combined games between Double-A and Triple-A while also stealing 55 bags. So far in 2024, Bliss already has five swipes from nine games at Triple-A, though has yet to go deep and is only batting .226. The sample size is small, though it may be difficult to expect him to hit for average, and 20-plus homers may also be generous. Bliss is more likely to fill a super-utility role than anything else, yet it's still too early to firmly envision his permanent spot in Seattle.

DOWNGRADE

Walker Jenkins, OF, MIN – Jenkins left Low-A Fort Wayne's opener due to a hamstring issue. He battled a quad strain during spring training, so this is certainly not an ideal start for one of the top overall prospects. Jenkins got a taste of Low-A last year and proceeded to go 20-for-51 (.392) with one homer, two steals and almost as many walks (4) as strikeouts (6) during a 12-game span. While the injury isn't considered serious, the Twins could decide to play it safe with him in the short-term. Jenkins' upside remains tantalizing, but health is the main thing, especially with the way other Minnesota phenoms (Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis) have struggled with to stay healthy.

Chase Hampton, P, NYY – Arguably the Yankees' top pitching prospect will start the season on the DL due to a shoulder ailment. Hampton burst onto the scene last year where he fanned 77 batters in only 47 innings at High-A. He received a quick promotion to Double-A, where he was slightly more hittable but still finished with 68 punchouts over 59.2 frames. Once healthy, Hampton is expected to resume at that level. With the Yankees trading four arms in the Juan Soto deal - including Drew Thorpe - Hampton's development and health could be vital for the Bronx Bombers as early as 2024.  

Kevin McGonigle, SS, DET – A compensatory pick in last year's draft, McGonigle hit the ground running in 73 at-bats between rookie ball and A-ball hitting .315 with a .452 OBP with a homer and eight stolen bases. Perhaps most impressively, he registered far more walks (18) than strikeouts (10). Unfortunately, McGonigle injured his hamstring during the spring and still hasn't returned.  With the eventual graduation from prospect status of Colt Keith and Parker Meadows, McGonigle is one of Detroit's best hitting phenoms, but will have to wait to start accumulating stats.