This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets,Expert Picks for
Tuesday, April 9
YTD 13-14 (-2.26 units)
Prior article 1-4 (-3.20 units)
Prior article review
Cubs UNDER 0.5 runs F3 — Weather played a huge role in why I made this pick along with Bobby Miller's stuff to potentially blow through the Cubs' lineup the first time. But Miller got rocked in the second inning making this a terrible call. Hindsight is that this play had a razor-thin margin of error and I will probably not look to do something like this again.
Rays OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (ESPN BET -120)/Alternative BET Rays/Rockies OVER 6.5 runs F5 (FanDuel -105) Another weather play as the wind was blowing out and high temperatures along with a bad starting pitcher in Austin Gomber. The thing to remember in baseball is that even the worst teams will win 35-40 percent of their games and that goes for starting pitchers as well. Even the worst starting pitchers will have a few good games.
The game ended up with 17 runs and the Rockies winning, 10-7. If I had played this on the full game and not F5, it would have cashed.
Red Sox ML The sole win on Friday came through as Boston won, 8-6, so it would have covered the run line along with the F5. The Red Sox are a team I will only play on the ML right now because their offense is tough to predict and their pitching has been incredible.
Brewers/Mariners UNDER 7.5 I almost ALWAYS take the F5 in this situation with two strong starting pitchers, favorable weather/parks and weaker lineups, but I did not. I went full game and that cost me. There was a total of three runs in F5, and eight runs in the 6th-9th innings. Lesson learned — stick with your gut
Reds ML I picked on the right pitcher in Jose Quintana, who had four strikeouts, five hits, four walks in 5.2 innings with only 55 percent strikes. The Reds just could not take advantage of his terrible outing, especially in their home ballpark which is top 3 for offense as they left 23 runners on base, scoring just two runs.
MLB fans can get ready for the season with the BetMGM bonus code to get a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
Houston Astros 
at Kansas City Royals 
One of my system plays is taking a strong starting pitcher when they are home dogs. The Royals fit that today with Cole Ragans on the bump at +110. I like what I have seen out of this Royals lineup so far as they hit the ball hard (first), barrel percent (first) and limit strikeouts (12th). On the flip side, the Astros are still struggling early on and I like the value on the home dog here.
My projections have this as one of the lower-scoring games on the slate, especially in the first five innings yet the total is 8.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Astros at Royals
- Royals ML for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
Baseball fans in North Carolina can cash in on thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this MLB season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new players $250 in bonus bets after making a first bet of at least $10.
Philadelphia Phillies 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
Going back to another system play that I have relied on consistently over the last few years in this article — Two strong starting pitchers with a relatively close moneyline (between 100 and 150) and total under eight is a PLAY ON the UNDER F5.
We get that here with Zack Wheeler against Sonny Gray. The Phillies are -135, and the total is 7.5. This is a top-three pitching matchup on the slate. Wheeler has been dominant in his two starts with a 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 15:1 K:BB in 12 innings. Gray might not be long for this game, as it is his first start of the season. Even more reason I like the F5 UNDER.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Cardinals
- Phillies/Cardinals UNDER 4 runs F5 for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -120)
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Minnesota Twins 
We need to remember that while the Dodgers should win 100 to 110 games, they will also lose 55-60 games as well. That being said, you need to pick your spots taking them. This is one of those spots as we get a reduced line on the road against a very weak-hitting Minnesota Twins team and questionable starting pitcher.
This is the biggest pitching mismatch in the slate with Tyler Glasnow against Louie Varland. The Twins are fourth worst in strikeout rate (26.3) and third worst in wRC+ (74). The Dodgers' three losses this year have come when they allowed eight, nine and six runs. This Twins' offense can barely put up three runs in a game.
See the recap for a bonus SGP on this game.
MLB Picks for at Dodgers at Twins
- Dodgers -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -118)
Washington Nationals 
at San Francisco Giants 
I went against Josiah Gray in his first two starts and both were dreadful from the first pitch. His lack of command and confidence (body language showed he was defeated before the game even started). The Giants are a lineup that will just continue to contact rate you to death and in their ballpark that spells doom for Gray. I like Kyle Harrison long term, but not enough to take the Giants on the run line or moneyline in this spot.
Most books have this total at 8.5, but DraftKings was at eight and that has me leaning on the Giants' team total full game and F5 (split unit). I have been laying off hitter props for now because of the high variance, but if you wanted to sprinkle a little on the Giants hitters I would look at Michael Conforto, LaMonte Wade Jr.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Giants
- Giants OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (ESPN BET +105)
- Giants OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals ML for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Phillies/Cardinals UNDER 4 runs F5 for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -120)
- Dodgers -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -118)
- Giants OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (ESPN BET +105)
- Giants OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
- SGP BONUS - Shohei Ohtani 4+ total bases; Glasnow 7+ strikeouts; Dodgers -1.5 for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +425)
