Farm Futures: FYPD Mock, Tiers

I took part in a four-person, eight-round mock First-Year Player Draft with Chris Clegg, Eric Cross and Chris Welsh for the Toolshed Podcast earlier this week, so I wanted to share the results and the prep I did for it. As many of you know, the second half of January is dedicated to FYPD content, as the teenage international prospects sign Jan. 15 and I release my updated top 400 prospect rankings, FYPD top 100 and FYPD Blueprint article at that time. I also know some of you do your FYPDs earlier or just have an insatiable appetite for FYPD content, so hopefully this is helpful. For this exercise, J-15 prospects weren't considered, but free agents from Asia like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga were eligible to be taken.

FYPD Mock Results

I went best-player available (highest ranked player) for my first six picks, landing Walker Jenkins, Paul Skenes, Colt Emerson, Kyle Teel, Brayden Taylor and Tai Peete. But with five of my first six picks being used on hitters, I took lower-ranked players within the same tier to add some high-upside pitching (Josh Knoth, Blake Wolters). The idea with that prep-righty double-up is that one of them will probably suffer a significant injury on the path to the majors, but if one of them stays healthy, they have the upside to be a top-five pitching prospect in the game before graduating.

Aside from my own picks, I loved the value on Matt Shaw at No. 7, Bryce Eldridge at No. 16 and Cole Carrigg at No. 26 overall.

Early FYPD Tiers

I have another 30 or so 2023 draftees ranked on the top 400, but I won't end up with many shares of players from this draft class who aren't in these initial five tiers. J-15 prospects and non-FYPD prospects who helped their stock late in the year will be options in the middle rounds of FYPDs as well, and there is enough variance in rankings/perception that I should be able to get guys I have ranked in the top 50 of my top 100 through the end of an FYPD.

From the podcast I did with Chris, Eric and Chris, it was clear to me that I'm higher than everyone on Walker Jenkins (MIN) and lower Dylan Crews (WAS). My evaluation is that Jenkins is essentially the player Crews was promised to be, except Jenkins is three years younger and had better overall data than Crews at Single-A this year. You can't go wrong with anyone from the first two tiers, and in the process of getting ready for this mock, I realized that Crews and Matt Shaw (CHC) are closer in my head than they are in my rankings (15-spot gap).

I'm not interested in using a high FYPD pick on Nolan Schanuel, just because I hate the situation -- it could be one of the worst lineups in the game over the next three years -- and I don't see a high ceiling. He has a very advanced eye at the plate, but there's no physical projection remaining and he doesn't hit the ball hard, especially relative to ther corner infielders. I'm hyper-focused on upside in FYPDs, as this is your one opportunity every year to get the guys with the highest ceilings. It's easy to add quality floor-over-ceiling prospects in season off the wire.