This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
It's the middle of the week and the middle of the month, but it's the end days of the MLB regular season. Playoff spots are getting locked up. Teams are getting eliminated. For DFS purposes, there are eight games on the slate starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Sonny Gray, MIN vs. KC ($8,700): Gray has held up his end of the bargain in his first season as a Twin. He has a 3.09 ERA, and over his last nine starts he has a 2.27 ERA. The Royals are 24th in runs scored and have one of baseball's worst records, so this looks good for Gray in terms of picking up a quality start, not to mention a win.
Dane Dunning, TEX vs. OAK ($8,000): Dunning has been two different pitchers since joining the Rangers depending on where he is pitching. On the road, he struggles. However, he had a 3.09 home ERA last year and has a 3.35 ERA at home this season. Fortunately, Dunning is at home against an Athletics team that sits 29th in runs scored.
Ross Stripling, TOR vs. TAM ($7,300): Stripling spent a portion of the season in the bullpen, but he's made 20 starts at this point. All in all, he has a 3.09 FIP, and he also has a 2.84 ERA at home. Tampa Bay, for its part, is just outside the top 20 in runs scored, and it also has a lot of lefties. Stripling may be a righty, but he's held lefties to a .212 batting average since 2020.
Top Targets
As expected, Freddie Freeman ($4,400) has been better versus righties this year. The southpaw has a .967 OPS in that split this season. What has also happened, though, is that Freeman has done better on the road now that he's a Dodger. His OPS in away games is .970. Zach Davies has a 4.73 FIP this year, and the fact he's only struck out 6.87 batters per nine innings doesn't bode well against Freeman, who has a .330 batting average.
Slugger Pete Alonso ($3,600) has 34 home runs, and perhaps owing to the talent around him he has 110 RBI as well. The righty has slugged .531 in his career, showing plenty of power. Lefty Drew Smyly has let right-handers hit .255 against him, and he also has a 4.45 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bats
When facing a righty, and also getting away from Oakland's pitcher-friendly ballpark, Seth Brown ($2,900) can be quite productive. He has a .772 OPS against right-handers and a .793 OPS on the road. Brown also has an .827 OPS over the last three weeks. While I am recommending Dunning as a pitcher, all things considered a guy with a career 4.39 ERA is not scaring me away from taking a shot on Brown.
Since being dealt to the Nationals, Luke Voit ($2,700) has hit six home runs in 33 games. He may be a righty, but he often struggles with lefty pitchers, while on the flip side he has an .825 OPS versus right-handed pitchers in 2022. In his first year as a starter, Tyler Wells has a 4.41 FIP, and he's allowed a .253 average to righties as well.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees at Red Sox (Brayan Bello): Aaron Judge ($5,000), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($3,000), Josh Donaldson ($2,400)
I don't know how Bello has done it. He has a 5.79 ERA even though he has yet to allow a home run. Now in time, he will allow some homers. Righties and lefties have both hit .304 against him this year, and the ball is not always going to stay in the park. Some of those balls smashing against the Green Monster will get enough air under them eventually. The Yankees have some injury issues right now, but I still found a worthwhile stack.
Judge wouldn't be a bad bet to be the first guy to hit a home run off Bello. He has 57 of them, after all. With the Yankees' homer record in sight, he also has an 1.361 OPS over the last three weeks. Kiner-Falefa doesn't typically show power, but he has slugged .421 over the last three weeks. He does have baserunning skills though, and has 18 stolen bases this season. Donaldson hasn't loved his new home park, but he does have a .791 OPS on the road. He also has a .771 OPS over the last 21 days.
Orioles at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Anthony Santander ($2,900), Jorge Mateo ($2,800), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700)
It's time for the usual Corbin spiel. He has a 6.30 ERA this season. Over the last three years he has a 5.80 ERA. He's allowed 1.72 home runs per nine innings. Since 2020, righties have hit .314 against him. So yeah, it's time to stack some Orioles!
Santander is a switch hitter, but he has a .915 OPS against righties. He's hit 27 home runs and has slugged .456 all in all. Don't expect power from Mateo. He does have 12 homers, but this is more about his 30 stolen bases. On top of that, he has posted a .745 OPS on the road. Mountcastle has 22 homers after having 33 last year. Five of them have come in the last three weeks though, a stretch in which he has slugged .429.
Twins vs. Royals (Zack Greinke): Carlos Correa ($3,800), Jose Miranda ($2,800), Luis Arraez ($2,700)
Greinke has a 4.21 FIP and has managed to strike out only 5.18 batters per nine innings. What's really striking though is his staggering home/road splits. The veteran has an 1.93 ERA at home, but on the road his ERA balloons to 6.33. Now, there is some element of randomness to that, but it's still notable.
Correa has slashed .280/.357/.463 with 20 home runs. Since 2020, righties have hit .291 against Greinke. Miranda has averaged .279 and slugged .459 with 15 home runs in 103 games. He also has an .841 OPS over the last two weeks. The lefty Arraez has hit .336 against righties. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has slugged .456 at home.
