This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We've got eight MLB games on the docket Wednesday starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. The White Sox-Royals game was moved up to the afternoon, FYI, costing me a chance to recommend Dylan Cease. At this point, I start to look a little more at this season's numbers, although it's still early. Prior numbers, especially last season's numbers, still have a lot of sway with me when I make my recommendations, however.
Pitching
Pablo Lopez, MIA at WAS ($10,400): In 2020, Lopez had a 3.08 FIP, and fittingly last season he had a 3.07 ERA. This year, he has a 0.52 ERA, having allowed all of one run across three starts. Lopez has pitched as well as anybody, and the Nationals' lineup is not threatening enough beyond Juan Soto to concern me.
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. DET ($9,200): Ryan only made five big-league starts last season, but now through eight starts in his career he has a 3.16 ERA. Over his last two, he's only allowed one run in 12 innings. The Tigers added some talent this offseason, but to start the year they are once again in the bottom 10 in runs scored.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY vs. BAL ($7,800): Montgomery was middling last season with a 3.68 FIP in 30 starts. His first start this year didn't go great, but now he has a 2.51 ERA through three outings. The Orioles were expected to be one of the worst teams in the majors this year, and that's played out so far. In particular, they are last in MLB in strikeouts on a per-game basis.
Top Targets
Although Yordan Alvarez ($3,200) isn't making much contact so far this year, when he does, the ball has flown far as per usual. He's hit four home runs and slugged .511. In his career he's slashed .284/.365/.572 and mashes righties, so he provides a lot of upside and will surely improve his batting average. Glenn Otto's first start went well this year, but he was facing the Athletics in their spacious, pitcher-friendly ballpark. In six starts last season he had a 9.26 ERA.
I'm going to keep betting on Bo Bichette ($3,200) and eventually his numbers on the season will justify it. He hit a grand slam the other day that is indicative of his upside, and let's not forget he hit 29 home runs and stole 25 bases last year. I doubt Michael Wacha's 1.88 ERA is sustainable, as he has a 4.67 FIP. That tracks, as he hasn't had a FIP lower than 4.46 in his last three seasons.
Bargain Bats
With a righty on the mound, expect Joey Wendle ($2,700) in the lineup for the Marlins. Since 2020 he has a .794 OPS against righties. Erick Fedde, the aforementioned righty, has a career 5.31 ERA and has allowed 1.56 home runs per nine innings as well.
Seth Brown ($2,400) has shown some pop against righties. He slugged .498 and hit 19 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 2020. Jakob Junis' first start this year went well, but he has a career 4.77 ERA. Also, since 2020 he has allowed lefties to hit .316 against him. Those are batting-title numbers!
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Orioles (Tyler Wells): Aaron Judge ($3,600), DJ LeMahieu ($3,200), Anthony Rizzo ($3,500)
Pitching entirely out of the bullpen last season, Wells had a 4.11 ERA. This year he's in the rotation, and in three starts he has a 6.75 ERA. The Yankees don't have much in the way of lefties, but they do have Rizzo, plus a couple other bats worth stacking.
Judge has never lived up to his 52-homer rookie campaign, but he's remained an elite power hitter. He's never had a slugging percentage below .528, and he's slugged .548 to start this season. LeMahieu was a real asset to the lineup for the Yankees in his first two seasons with the team (.922 OPS) before struggling last season. This year, though, he's bounced back with a .339/.413/.500 slash line. Rizzo is getting on base (.411 OBP) and is racking up some counting stats with eight homers and two stolen bases.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (Ross Stripling): Rafael Devers ($3,700), J.D. Martinez ($3,700), Alex Verdugo ($3,400)
Stripling has jumped back and forth between starting and relieving throughout his career, which is what'll happen when you have a career 4.14 FIP. Over the last three seasons he has a 5.10 ERA as well. I have two lefties in this stack, but don't fear a righty against Stripling. He's allowed a .288 batting average to his fellow right-handers since 2020.
Devers has two seasons with over 30 homers and 100 RBI in his career. He also has a .928 OPS against righties since 2020. Martinez rebounded from a rough 2020 with an .867 OPS and 28 home runs in 2021. He only has one homer to start this year, but he has a .333 OBP and a .460 slugging percentage. Verdugo's counting stats weren't impressive in 2021 (13 homers, six stolen bases) but he hit .289, which is his career average. Additionally, he has an .896 OPS versus righties since 2020 as well.
Atlanta vs. Cubs (Mark Leiter): Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000)
Leiter has returned to MLB this year for the first time since 2018. Through two starts he has an 11.05 ERA. In his career, he's allowed 2.00 home runs per nine innings. Leiter won't likely be in the Cubs' starting rotation very long, but for now he is, and that bodes well for Atlanta.
Olson's last year with the Athletics went great (39 homers and a .911 OPS), and his move to Atlanta is working out. The lefty has slashed .333/.438/.545. Riley famously remade his swing in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers. This year his slash line is .277/.373/.554 with four home runs. Ozuna has mostly been DHing, which is working well for him. He's hit .275 with four homers.
