This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
14 games await Tuesday evening, and with only one five-figure pitcher on the bump, there's a lot of ways for this slate to shake out.
Pitching Breakdown
Walker Buehler ($11,600) is your only top-priced pitching option on this deep slate, and he couldn't have a much softer matchup against Baltimore, who rank 26th with a .301 wOBA and 84 wRC+. Their 22.9 percent fan rate isn't GPP friendly, and the fact that Buehler has allowed five or more runs in two of his last four starts may make cash gamers feel a little uneasy as well. It shouldn't, but it may.
A surging Max Fried ($9,600) follows. He's fanned 20 in his last two starts, topping 50 FDP in each. He hasn't fared well against the Phillies however, allowing 10 runs and 14 hits over 11.2 innings while fanning 10. The Phillies were dominated Monday by Mike Foltynewicz, but don't strike out often (22.9 percent) against lefties. This is a challenging choice between great form and spotty trends.
An additional eight arms are priced between $8,000 and $9,300, led by Jose Quintana ($9,300). It's an attractive matchup on paper against a Padres team that fans 24.3 percent against lefties, but Quintana has lasted no more than 5.2 innings in any of his last three starts, twice allowing four runs. There's certainly GPP upside, as he averaged 54 FDP in his previous three starts. We just haven't seen that form recently. Zac Gallen ($9,100) is intriguing despite a less than stellar matchup with the Mets, who don't fan much. Gallen hasn't allowed more than three runs in any start, and has been worth 33 FDP or more in six of eight. Wade Miley ($8,900) offers little at this price as his only value comes from wins. Trevor Bauer ($8,700) is worth a look for GPPers. He's been woeful of late, losing points in two of his last five starts while also earning just nine points in a third, but there have been 52 and 61 FDP outings in August. He's back in a more familiar American League park, and the Mariners have a 25.7 percent strikeout rate. This tier is completed by Jose Berrios ($8,000), who is in pretty bad form, averaging 22 FDP over his last six outings, and he has a bad matchup against a hot Nationals offense. There's immense upside here though, and perhaps the unfamiliarity of the opponent gives Berrios a leg up.
I anticipate many who enjoy paying down for arms to target Chase Anderson ($6,300) against Miami, but I'd caution that he hasn't made it through six innings since August 1, making a quality start a long shot, and a win no guarantee. Johnny Cueto ($6,900) will likely be limited to 80-ish pitches, capping his potential. There's a little strikeout appeal to Justus Sheffield ($6,700) against Cincinnati, who gets a slight boost at home in T-Mobile Park. He's obviously pricier, but Ryan Yarbrough ($7,400) gets a Rangers side that fans 26.1 percent of the time against lefties and has only an 83 wRC+, albeit he's starting in Globe Life Park.
Key Chalk/Value
Colorado-St. Louis, and a pitching matchup of Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Michael Wacha couldn't be more chalky. With a run total of 13.5, you're going to need some exposure. Gonzalez gave up five runs in 4.1 frames to the Cardinals three outings prior, and is allowing a .411 wOBA to lefties, although that's something the Cardinals are short on. It makes their secondary options highly stackable with the likes of Dexter Fowler ($3,600), Kolten Wong ($3,500) and Matt Carpenter ($3,500) there for the taking. Wacha on the other hand has been worse against same-handed bats, playing into the Rockies' strength. Nolan Arenado ($4,600) has had H2H success here (4-of-11, 2 HR), but secondary pieces in the Rockies lineup are incredibly cheap given the plus matchup, so a look at stacking one or two of their top three, and then using Ian Desmond ($3,400) and/or Ryan McMahon ($3,400), could work out.
A 10.5 run total isn't overly surprising in Houston despite a decent pitching matchup of the aforementioned Miley vs. Tanner Roark, who has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of nine. Roark has struggled against lefties however, so similar to Monday night, Michael Brantley ($3,900) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,200) look set up for success. The Athletics' side may offer some value, with Matt Chapman ($3,900) and Marcus Semien ($3,700) leading the way against lefties, though Jurickson Profar ($2,900) and Khris Davis ($2,700) aren't too far behind.
Minnesota-Washington also has a 10.5 run total. I'm not going all in on the Nationals offense just in case Berrios regains some form. The Twins bats against Anibal Sanchez look far more appealing. Sanchez appears to be wearing down, allowing seven runs in his last outing, and three or more in four of seven. With Nelson Cruz ($4,000), Miguel Sano ($3,700) and Max Kepler ($3,500) uncertain, there's decent value in Eddie Rosario ($3,700), Jorge Polanco ($3,700), Mitch Garver ($3,200) and C.J. Cron ($3,000).
The final game with a double-digit run total is in Toronto, where the Blue Jays send T.J. Zeuch to the hill to face the Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi. While the usual suspects are in play for the Sox, I'm intrigued by the potential of the Jays here against Eovaldi. Bo Bichette ($3,900) is the chalk, but the young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,000) and Cavan Biggio ($3,000), and veteran Randal Grichuk ($2,600) in the 1-4 spots could return nicely at their prices.
Stacks
Dodgers vs. Ty Blach (Orioles)
Cody Bellinger (1B - $4,600), A.J. Pollock (OF - $3,800), Justin Turner (3B - $3,600)
This is going to be very chalky, but the Dodgers are affordable and have a plus-plus matchup in Camden Yards against Blach, who is allowing a .504 wOBA to lefties and a .411 wOBA to righties. Bellinger is the obvious anchor, and brings a .404 wOBA, 154 wRC+ and .329 ISO to the table. Pollock is three days removed from a three-homer performance, and goes .394/148/.185 against lefties, while Turner sits at .384/141/.297. Keep an eye on the Dodgers' lineup, as Enrique Hernandez ($2,600) would offer salary relief if he's slotted in the three hole between Turner and Bellinger.
Indians vs. Jose Suarez (Angels)
Carlos Santana (1B - $3,800), Franmil Reyes (OF - $3,200), Jordan Luplow (OF -$2,800)
The Angeles continue to run Suarez out every fifth day, and he continues to struggle, as his 16 FDP outing last time out was his highest since July 25. The .419 wOBA and 1.014 OPS he allows to righties is an obvious place to attack, and the Indians have some terrific splits on the cheap. Luplow leads the team with a .428 wOBA, 168 wRC+ and .345 ISO against southpaws. Reyes goes .404/151/.324 since coming over from San Diego, and Santana sits at .416/159/.235.
Royals vs. Ivan Nova (White Sox)
Adalberto Mondesi (SS - $3,800), Alex Gordon (OF - $3,200), Hunter Dozier (3B - $3,900)
Nova was intentionally left out of the pitching section, as the Royals look to be in a good spot to get to him here. He's allowed 10 runs and 19 hits in his last two outings, lasting only 8.1 frames, and in three starts (15 innings) against Kansas City, he's allowed 11 runs and 18 hits while fanning only 10. He's been more vulnerable to lefties at home, so we'll build around Mondesi and Gordon, the latter of whom had an eight-game hit streak snapped last night and still made 9.7 FDP. I chose Dozier for the third spot over Jorge Soler ($3,900) and Whit Merrifield ($3,800) for a blend of power upside and a more stable floor. Truthfully, all five are viable options Tuesday.
