This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 15-game slate awaits Tuesday, though rain along the east coast could cut that number down somewhat substantially by first pitch.
Pitching Breakdown
Trevor Bauer ($10,900) leads a group of four arms priced in five digits, with four more checking in at $9,000 or more. Bauer appears well worth the price, having gone for at least 46 FDP in four of his last five starts and 40 FDP or more in eight of 11. He faces a limited Blue Jays offense that has only a .301 wOBA while fanning 24.3 percent of the time. The depth of options available are the only reason to consider fading Bauer.
Aaron Nola ($10,500) follows and is in a similar light to Bauer. He's gone for 45 FDP or more in five of his last six outings, and the Tigers rank 29th with a .284 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and fan a league-high 26.3 percent of the time. A pitcher's duel seems likely to break out in Detroit, with Matthew Boyd ($9,800) opposing Nola. The Phillies fan only 21.4 percent of the time, but are below average against lefties with just a 95 wRC+. Boyd has topped 40 points just twice in his last seven starts however, and could lack the upside of others in his class.
Chris Sale ($10,200) and Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) round out the priciest tier. Sale remains an enigma, but has monster GPP potential having topped 50 FDP in four of his last eight. He was worth 43 FDP in an earlier meeting against Tampa, and the Rays have only a 94 wRC+ against lefties while fanning 26.2 percent of the time. Following Monday's rainout, the real concern with Strasburg could be him getting pushed back to Wednesday. He's in good form, the Rockies offense isn't, and he should see ample run support with Peter Lambert ($6,100) as his adversary.
Chris Paddack ($9,500) and Domingo German ($9,200) are up next. German has been worth 37 FDP or more in each of his three July starts, but faces a strong Twins lineup that ranks fourth with a .343 wOBA and fans only 20.5 percent of the time. With so many other soft matchups, German is only a low-exposure GPP option for me. Paddack has righted himself over his last three outings, going for at least 35 FDP after posting just 46 total in his prior three. A matchup against a middling Mets offense can go either way.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,000) and Caleb Smith ($8,800) round out my second tier of arms. Bumgarner is coming off a complete game, and his 9.1 K/9 rate could play up against a Cubs' team that fans 24.6 percent of the time. Smith has gone for 30 or more FDP in three straight and four of five, and faces a White Sox offense that fans 24.8 percent of the time.
With so many top options, it's going to be challenging to pay down for pitching, especially in GPPs where these aces could go off and put you in a position where you're chasing. Dallas Keuchel ($7,200) could be the best remaining option. He turned in three straight quality starts before leaving the ball up too often against Milwaukee in his last outing. He gets a light-hitting Royals team that has a .295 wOBA, 81 wRC+ and 24.2 percent strikeout rate. They also ground out 45.9 percent of the time (sixth most), which plays into Keuchel's 57.7 percent groundball rate. Merrill Kelly ($7,600) will likely garner some attention too against an always targetable Baltimore offense. Finally, Zach Davies ($6,600) is in great form, allowing just one run over his last 18 innings.
Key Chalk/Value
With such a loaded pitching slate, it comes as no surprise we only have one game on the board with a double-digit run total: Yankees-Twins. We noted German's poor matchup above, and by far his worst split has been righties on the road, allowing a .340 wOBA, though a low .796 OPS. That also doesn't play into the Twins strengths, as a slumping switch-hitting Jorge Polanco ($3,800) and lefty Luis Arraez ($2,800) have the best numbers against right-handers. As such, Mitch Garver ($3,400) looks like the right bet for some Minnesota exposure, having homered five times in as many games and carrying a .304 ISO into Tuesday. The Yankees side isn't much easier to target against Kyle Gibson ($7,300), who has been solid at home, owning a 3.71 ERA and 3.65 xFIP, with neither handed bats having a wOBA better than .262. Playing it safe with run producers in Aaron Judge ($4,600) and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200) may be the best bet.
There are a good handful of games featuring totals of 9.5, with Seattle-Texas looking like an attractive matchup to target for offense. Seattle will send Tommy Milone ($6,200) out to oppose a recalled Pedro Payano ($5,500) who may not start but will eat the bulk of the innings. Milone has been better than his name recognition suggests, but the Rangers bats are cheap and have big power potential, so I'm definitely interested in Joey Gallo ($3,700) and Hunter Pence ($3,700). Payano was fanning 11.2 per nine at Triple-A, but also walking 5.6 and carrying a 5.40 xFIP. Daniel Vogelbach ($3,900) is incredibly feast or famine, so maybe a safer buy-in would include top-of-the-order lefties Mallex Smith ($3,300) and J.P. Crawford ($3,200).
A sneaky spot for offense could come from the Marlins. This game has a 9.5 run total, and I like the previously mentioned Smith on the hill for Miami. White Sox starter Dylan Covey ($6,000) has a 5.83 ERA and 6.12 xFIP. He's been more vulnerable to lefties, something the Marlins lack, but a dart throw at Neil Walker ($2,500) won't cost much. I'd have no problem rolling with Garrett Cooper ($3,000) either, who has a .386 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and .172 ISO against same-handed arms.
Nationals bats are certainly stackable, but I'm still leery of a pitching reshuffle given Monday's rainout, and Wednesday's pending doubleheader. If the aforementioned Lambert is on the hill for Colorado, and the game isn't again threatened by rain, they become by far my favorite offense to target Tuesday.
Stacks
Braves vs. Danny Duffy (Royals)
Ronald Acuna (OF - $4,400), Ozzie Albies (2B - $3,300), Dansby Swanson (SS - $3,200)
Duffy has posted quality starts in four of five and five of seven, and is actually more prone to trouble against same-handed bats, so this stack is all about the Braves' prowess against lefties. Albies' success from the right side is well known; he strikes out only 9.8 percent of the time, and has a .430 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and .247 ISO. Acuna has been worth at least nine FDP in every game since July 5 and, in addition to his .414 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .272 ISO against lefties, he's stolen eight bases in eight games. Swanson has better numbers against lefties than Freddie Freeman ($4,000) and Josh Donaldson ($3,900) do, and his spot in the No. 2 hole gives you a chance to benefit from those bashers behind him.
Diamondbacks vs. Dylan Bundy (Orioles)
Ketel Marte (OF - $4,200), Jake Lamb (3B - $2,900), Christian Walker (1B - $3,500)
Bundy has allowed 17 runs and 24 hits over his last 17.0 innings. He's been more vulnerable to same-handed bats, allowing a .370 wOBA to righties, which plays right into Chrisitan Walker's July resurgence. Marte has a team-high .391 wOBA and 141 wRC+, adding a .243 ISO. Lamb looks to be rounding into form, going for double-digit FDP in two of his last five, and he's well known for his propensity to tee off against opposite-handed arms.
Brewers vs. Tanner Roark (Reds)
Christian Yelich (OF - $4,900), Mike Moustakas (3B - $4,200), Yasmani Grandal (C - $3,300)
Roark has allowed 13 runs in his last three starts, spanning 16.1 innings, and is getting pelted by lefties, allowing a .439 wOBA and 1.046 OPS to them on the road. Yelich appears worth every penny as a result, but if you need convincing, he carries a .494 wOBA, 209 wRC+ and .412 ISO. Grandal is more up and down, but goes .366/125/.244 in this spot. Moustakas is hot, which could make this stack cost prohibitive. If you need some salary relief, Eric Thames ($2,800) slots in well. While his form isn't as good, he's actually got fractionally better season-long numbers against righties than Moustakas, highlighted by a .263 ISO.
