FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thursday is another quiet day for DFS with a total of 10 games on the schedule, as teams travel for their upcoming weekend series'. There are a total of six games that can be used for the early slate while the main slate consists of only four.

For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com. 

Pitcher

Aaron Nola, PHI vs WAS ($9,700): There seems to be two upper-tier pitching options tonight between Nola and Lance McCullers. Looking at both, McCullers historically has been a better home pitcher than on the road with a higher wOBA on the road every season. Nola just faced the Nationals, giving them recent exposure to him, but he also racked up 37 fantasy points. Nola has also allowed more than three earned runs more than twice (four runs) in 16 starts. He has quality starts in 12 of those starts, and his nine wins are one of the best marks in the National League.

GPP Fade: Tanner Roark, WAS at PHI ($7,300): Roark has been struggling as of late, giving up four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. He hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, finishing with 16 and six fantasy points in those two games. Roark has only won once in his last 10 starts, and facing off against Nola will make the Nationals an underdog on the road tonight.

Cheap GPP Consideration: Junior Guerra, MIL at CIN ($8,400): Many DFS owners may not realize how good Guerra has been this season, and the small slate of games should draw more attention to him than normal. He's scored at least 22 fantasy points in all but only one of his 14 starts this season and has a 2.82 with a matching 1.17 WHIP. Guerra is striking out just under a batter per inning, and Cincinnati isn't a tough matchup given its strikeout rate (21 percent) and wOBA (.314) against right-handed pitching coming is around league-average.

Catcher/First Base

Jesus Aguilar, MIL at CIN ($3,600): At this point, it's tough to hard to ignore how good Aguilar has been batting — .304 with 18 home runs in only 237 plate appearances. He has a 1.395 OPS over his last 14 games and gets a good matchup against Anthony DeSclafani tonight in Cincinnati. DeSclafani has surrendered a .402 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home this season and has always had issues with giving up home runs.

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez, PHI vs WAS ($3,100): Hernandez should be in his usual leadoff spot tonight and is quietly putting together a good fantasy season. He's on pace for a 20/25 season with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases and his OBP is in the .370s per usual (.378). At home last season his wOBA was .375 and he's following that up this year with a .347 mark.

Third Base

Rafael Devers, BOS vs LAA ($3,100):Jaime Barria had little control over his fastball last time out and was saved by a few errant swings by the Jays to mask what was a rough outing. Those errant swings likely won't happen by the Red Sox tonight, who have been a top-3 team against right-handed pitching all season. A tweak in the batting cage with the help of J.D. Martinez has helped Devers to a .802 OPS over his last 14 games, and he's even swiping a base here and there (five steals).

Shortstop

Marwin Gonzalez, HOU at TB ($2,300): The position is once again a mess Thursday as Trea Turner faces Aaron Nola and Carlos Correa is dealing with back issues. Punting makes a lot of sense and using David Fletcher ($2,200) if he's leading off or Gonzalez isn't a bad idea. Gonzalez had a solo home run yesterday and faces the Ryne Stanek/Ryan Yarbrough combination tonight. While he's struggling this season at the plate (.303 wOBA), his .382 wOBA from last season suggests there will be some improvement over the rest of the campaign.

Outfield

Keon Broxton, MIL at CIN ($2,400): Broxton is a bit of a gamble tonight and is probably best left for GPPs. He may not be in the lineup but if he is there's a good amount of upside to him given his power/speed combination. In the hitter-friendly environment of Colorado Springs this season, he had nine home runs and 24 stolen bases although the 105 strikeouts are a red flag. Still, it's a good matchup and Broxton should be hitting sixth like he did yesterday.

Chris Young, LAA at BOS ($2,800): Young homered in Boston Tuesday night and continues to hit left-handed pitching well. On the road this season he has a .367 wOBA against lefties in a small sample, and overall his wOBA is .358 against southpaws. Brian Johnson has not been good for the Red Sox in the last two seasons with a 4.68 ERA.

Utility

Mitch Moreland, BOS vs LAA ($3,600): This game should have plenty of fantasy significance from the bats on both teams. It makes a lot of sense to squeeze in studs like Mike Trout and Justin Upton from the Angels, and Moreland is another left-handed bat to use against Jaime Barria. Moreland has a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and that number goes up to .460 in Fenway. Comparatively, Mookie Betts (.449) and J.D. Martinez (.520) are close to being in that .460 range this season but come at a much higher price ($5,100 and $4,900 respectively).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
Offseason Deep Dives: Reynaldo Lopez
Offseason Deep Dives: Reynaldo Lopez
Offseason Deep Dives: Hunter Greene
Offseason Deep Dives: Hunter Greene
Farm Futures: November Dynasty Mailbag!
Farm Futures: November Dynasty Mailbag!
All-Bust Fantasy Team: Relief Pitchers
All-Bust Fantasy Team: Relief Pitchers
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Wednesday, October 30
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Wednesday, October 30