This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
There's a nice, healthy 11-game slate tonight from which to choose players. We just miss a Coors Field game earlier in the day though, and there are six listed starting pitchers with ERAs no higher than about 3.00, so it might be a low-scoring main slate. Let's see who to consider.
Pitching
After taking a quick look at the lines, the one came that stands out is the Brewers traveling to San Francisco. The reason this game stands apart from the rest is that it has a rare over/under of only six runs. Considering the pitchers on the mound - Carlos Rodon ($10,900) and Corbin Burnes ($11,300) - that makes a lot of sense. The two hurlers have an average ERA of 2.95 on the season, and both strike out over 31 percent of the batters they face. Looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook, both pitchers have an identical over/under of 7.5 strikeouts and Burnes' Brewers are a slight favorite (-116) to win. I don't have a strong lean here between the two but if forced to make a decision, I'd go with Burnes. His road ERA the last two seasons has been roughly a run lower than at home, and that he's a slight favorite tilts me in his direction. I can see using each in a tournament if salary cap space allows, and one if not both of them should put together strong outings.
Despite the deep slate there are only six options under $8,500 among pitchers, so suggesting Triston McKenzie ($9,300) as a "mid-range option" is unusual but accurate. He's got a great home matchup against the Tigers and comes into the game having not allowing an earned run in his last two starts (13 innings). He scored 45 fantasy points when facing this same opponent in Detroit earlier this season, and his Guardians are a -250 favorite while McKenzie has an over/under of 6.5 strikeouts. He should be a less popular play with most fantasy players, even in tournaments, as GMs gravitate to the San Francisco game.
Top Targets
I seem to go to Ronald Acuna ($4,300) a lot in this space, but he's shown throughout the season why he's such a good player to use in DFS. While he's only up to eight home runs, he has 18 stolen bases and should turn in a stronger second half as he gets further away from last season's ACL injury. I love the matchup tonight against Anibal Sanchez and the Nationals, and so does Vegas as Atlanta is a -220 favorite in a game with a 9.5 over/under. This suggests Acuna's squad should score around six runs, and with Sanchez (who is on the wrong side of 38 and coming off a neck injury) on the mound it could be a lot more than that.
I know it might seem lazy to look at the other team after suggesting Acuna, but there's a great case to be made for using Juan Soto ($4,200) tonight. You're not going to find as much speed with Soto, but the power (19 home runs, 41 RBI) has been there. A few other factors point toward him having a good game, starting with the fact that he's homered, doubled and walked three times off Kyle Wright in only 10 plate appearances. Soto also comes into the game red hot with a 1.571 OPS over the last week, fueled by four home runs in his last five games, and he's scored at least 12.2 fantasy points in each of his last seven contests.
Bargain Bats
Aledmys Diaz ($2,200) is almost at the minimum and is another player who's heated up at the plate lately. He has a 1.139 OPS over the last two weeks and will face off against southpaw Reid Detmers. While Detmers is a decent prospect, he's had a mixed bag of results so far with the Angels and is an underdog against the Astros. Diaz's best split last season was on the road against lefties (.389 wOBA) and his 2B/SS/3B eligibility allows for a more optimized roster.
Max Kepler ($2,700) missed yesterday's game after taking a foul ball of the leg, but the Twins were facing a lefty and it seemed like an easy call to give him a day off. He should be back in the lineup tonight in the cleanup spot. While Johnny Cueto has pitched great this season, I'm not buying into his resurgence. His 4.11 FIP suggest his 2.91 ERA has been extremely lucky and before last game he had allowed five home runs in only three games (17.1 innings). I'd look for the Twins to put up runs, and Kepler should be right in the middle of it.
Stacks To Consider
Cardinals vs. Dodgers (Tyler Anderson): Paul Goldschmidt ($3,700), Nolan Arenado ($3,500), Juan Yepez ($2,400), Albert Pujols ($2,100)
The year is 2022. I'm still writing about Albert Pujols and it's not about his inclusion into the Home Run Derby. Seriously, Pujols has been seeing the ball as of late, going 6-for-15 over his last four games with two home runs and a double. Anderson has been good this season but we just saw Tony Gonsolin get lit up for five earned runs last night, and regression comes for everyone eventually. Goldschmidt and Arenado continue to light up left-handed pitching, and Yepez has a lot of upside with 11 home runs in only 225 plate appearances this season. This will be one of the more under-the-radar stacks tonight.
Twins vs. White Sox (Cueto): Jorge Polanco ($3,900), Byron Buxton ($3,700), Luis Arraez ($3,300), Kepler ($2,700)
Again, I'm not a big believer in Cueto and there has to be some regression to the mean at some point. Buxton has a home run off the right-hander and Arraez has gone 2-for-3 the one time he's faced him. Overall, the Twins lineup has a 5:5 K:BB against Cueto in obviously a small sample, but it's still favorable for them. The Twins are a favorite (-162) in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs suggesting they will score around five runs. Feel free to pivot to Carlos Correa ($3,400), who is interchangeable with any of these players.
