This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
In the need of some more hot dogs and beer for Fourth of July? Pay for that expense with some DFS success! There are nine games on the slate I'm looking at for MLB this Sunday. To try and help you succeed, here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. LAA ($10,100): We have two middling offenses here, but the Astros have the clear advantage on the pitching front. Valdez has followed up his 3.14 ERA from last season with a 2.65 this year. He's elite at suppressing home runs, and the lefty will also keep a few key southpaw Angels bats in check.
Brandon Woodruff, MIL at PIT ($10,000): It may appear that Woodruff has taken a big step back from a stellar 2021, but he still maintains a 3.33 FIP and has struck out 11.65 batters per nine innings. And over his last four starts, he's posted a 2.25 ERA.
Ross Stripling, TOR vs. TAM ($7,100): Stripling has been in and out of the rotation, but has done well with a 1.75 ERA across five outings while qualifying for a win four times. The Rays rank in the bottom-five in runs scored, while the Blue Jays are in the top-eight. I like Stripling's chances of getting a win on Sunday.
Top Targets
It seems clear at this point that Triston McKenzie has a home-run problem as he's allowed 1.66 per nine innings. Anthony Rizzo ($3,600) has hit 22 homers this year and has an .862 OPS against righties. Seems like a fine matchup to slide in the slugger.
Tommy Pham ($3,200) has recently picked up the pace having posted a .912 OPS the last three weeks. He's enjoyed his new home ballpark this season with an .866 OPS in Cincinnati. Charlie Morton worked wonders in his age-37 season, but his age-38 campaign has been tougher with a 4.73 ERA.
Bargain Bats
He may be well into his career, but there's still a spark in the bat of Andrew McCutchen ($3,200). Not only does he have an 1.012 OPS the last three weeks, he's also produced a .945 OPS against lefties since 2020. Jose Quintana is a lefty and has allowed righties to hit .290 against during that same timeframe.
Miguel Rojas ($2,300) has picked himself up six home runs and five stolen bases this year. He also boasts an .823 OPS the last three weeks. Perhaps he can stay hot versus Erick Fedde, who lists a career 5.09 ERA.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers at Mets (Carlos Carrasco): Adolis Garcia ($3,800), Marcus Semien ($3,400), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900)
Carrasco has not enjoyed his time as a Met with a 5.32 ERA over two seasons. And in his last four appearances, that number skyrockets 9.68. This Rangers trio could help keep Carrasco's numbers high.
Garcia seems like someone destined to rarely get on base, but do a lot of damage when he is in the zone with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases with a .956 OPS the last three weeks. Semien has racked up nine home runs and 12 stolen bases even though he's significantly stepped down from last season's stats. The issues have largely been at home considering his .815 road OPS. The lefty Lowe has gone .274 with 11 homers and he also prefers being on the road with an .863 OPS.
Mets vs. Rangers (Jon Gray): Pete Alonso ($3,900), Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), Mark Canha ($2,700)
Being away from Coors Field has helped Gray allow fewer long balls and yet he still maintains a 3.89 ERA and a 4.05 on the road. Even last year when he was still in Colorado, he struggled to a 5.22 away from home. A change of scenery could only change so much for Gray, who squares off against a strong Mets lineup.
Alonso leads the charge for the Mets with 22 homers and a .280 batting average. He's actually greatly preferred righties with a .962 OPS in those matchups. The lefty Nimmo has three seasons where he's finished with an OBP over .400 and an .849 OPS against righties since 2020.The power has been missing for Canha the last couple of years, but he did manage 17 homers and 12 stolen bases in 2021. He's also gone .266 with a .354 OBP this season.
Twins vs. Orioles (Tyler Wells): Carlos Correa ($3,400), Jorge Polanco ($3,300), Luis Arraez ($2,900)
After pitching entirely out of the bullpen as a rookie last season, Wells graduated to the starting rotation. His FIP has gone up from 3.62 to 4.34, but his biggest issue is a lack of strikeouts with only 5.56 per nine innings - and that means plenty of contact from opposing hitters.
Having joined the Twins as a big-time free agent, Correa has slashed .298/.360/.471. He's also enjoyed a .900 OPS at his new home ballpark. Polanco is back after missing some time, and he'll be glad to be at home with an .830 OPS this season. A pitcher who allows a lot of contact plays to Arraez's strengths of a .345 average and .422 OBP. And against righties, the southpaw has actually hit .372.
