This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Somehow, we're already at the penultimate Sunday MLB slate of the season. It's likely the final relatively normal Sunday, as teams could shake things up on the final day of the campaign if they're already either locked into a playoff spot or eliminated. We have a relatively small set of games this time around, with just nine of 16 included. All games that start between 1:05 and 3:10 p.m. EDT are on this slate, with the exception of the Nationals-Marlins doubleheader.
Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco, CLE at DET ($9,900): Carrasco enters the game with a minor cause for concern as he left his previous start early due to calf tightness, but there's no indication the issue is still bothering him. Outside of that, he's enjoying a strong year by posting a 3.27 ERA and a 27.2 percent strikeout rate. Carrasco is deservedly the most expensive option on a slate that's quite light on ace-level arms, especially against a Tigers' team ranked 25th in the league with a 90 wRC+ through Friday's games.
Matthew Boyd, DET vs. CLE ($7,900): On the opposite side of that same context, Boyd looks to be the pick of the mid-tier options. Facing Carrasco does hurt his chances of a win, but facing Cleveland's offense should be a relatively easy task as they're one spot behind the Tigers in team wRC+ with an 85. Boyd's 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP are quite terrible, though his season has really been split into two halves. Over his first four starts, he posted a 10.24 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP while striking out just 18.8 percent of opposing batters. In Boyd's last six, he's compiled an ERA of 4.50, a WHIP of 1.27 and a 28.1 percent strikeout rate. That's much closer to his performance from last season when he posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 30.2 percent.
Jose Urquidy, HOU vs. ARI ($6,500): In the budget tier, you could certainly do far worse than Urquidy against a Diamondbacks' side ranking 27th heading into Saturday's games with a team wRC+ of 82. Urquidy is only making his fourth start of the year after a positive COVID-19 test prevented him from participating in summer camp and forced him to spend the early part of the season building up. His first two outings were unremarkable and his 3:6 K:BB looked particularly worrisome, but he built up to 90 pitches in his most recent start against the Rangers and struck out seven while walking none and allowing just three hits and one run over seven innings.
Top Targets
DJ LeMahieu, NYY at BOS ($4,400): LeMahieu posted a career-high 136 wRC+ in his first season with New York last year, the product of a .327/.375/.518 slash line and earning him a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting. Rather than fall back to previous form, he's taken another huge step forward this year by hitting .368/.422/.626, good for a 184 wRC+. A .365 BABIP may inflate those numbers a bit, though LeMahieu also managed to cut his already low strikeout rate from 13.7 percent to 9.4 percent. He'll face Red Sox righty Tanner Houck, who did throw five scoreless innings in his debut start last year but wasn't a particularly exciting prospect in the minors.
George Springer, HOU vs. ARI ($3,700): Springer's batting average may have fallen by more than 50 points this season with a .241 after finishing last season at .292, but a .234 BABIP appears to be primarily to blame. A 45.8 percent hard-hit rate marks his peak, while his xBA sits at .300. Springer is actually making more contact despite the lower average, as his 16.9 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, better even than his 17.6 percent mark from the Astros' 2017 season. And he still boasts plenty of power, hitting 11 homers in 45 games. Springer will get the platoon advantage against veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner, whose awful 8.53 ERA appears well-deserved given his 8.93 FIP.
Bargain Bats
Jeff McNeil, NYM vs. ATL ($2,900): The Mets could easily have been one of the stack recommendations listed here against Kyle Wright, who enters with a 7.20 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 20:20 K:BB. If you include just one, the surprisingly affordable McNeil could be the one to grab. He's maintained his high level at the plate this season by hitting .325/.398/.490, good for a 141 wRC+ and a near match for his 143 wRC+ from last season. His power has dipped a bit with only four homers, but he's making even more contact by trimming his strikeout rate from 13.2 percent to 11.6 percent. McNeil has been on fire over his last 13 contests, going hitless just once while hitting .425.
Shogo Akiyama, CIN vs. CWS ($2,300): Akiyama's low salary appears to be very deserved given his season-long numbers, as he's hitting .241/.358/.292 on the season with no homers and only salvaging a bit of fantasy value with a respectable six steals. That's mostly the product of an awful start to the year when he hit .196/.299/.255 over his first 37 games. Akiyama has suddenly become a far better hitter in his last 11 contests by hitting .371/.511/.400. While he won't stay that hot going forward, he was supposed to be at least a decent hitter when he signed from Japan as he hit over .300 with 20 or more homers across his last three NPB seasons. Akiyama will lead off in Cincinnati's hitter-friendly park and will enjoy the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease, whose 3.20 ERA comes with a 5.82 FIP.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Adonis Medina: Bo Bichette ($3,600), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,600), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,900)
Medina will be making his big-league debut and his first start above Double-A. He was quite an interesting prospect in the lower minors, but the shine has faded after he endured a very unimpressive season for Double-A Reading last year. While Reading's hitter-friendly park is perhaps partially to blame for the uninspiring 4.94 ERA, that can't be blamed for Medina's drastic drop in strikeout rate that sat at just 17.5 percent after coming in at 26.1 percent the previous year. It's certainly not the profile of a player you'd expect to have immediate success upon reaching the big leagues. It's possible the Phillies saw something in him at their alternate site, but it's more likely he's starting purely out of necessity given the injuries to Jake Arrieta (hamstring) and Spencer Howard (shoulder). This could wind up as effectively a bullpen game for the Phillies, but that's also good news for the Blue Jays since the Phillies' bullpen come in with a 7.29 ERA. The stack listed here features Toronto's likely second through fourth hitters.
Rays vs. John Means: Willy Adames ($2,800), Mike Brosseau ($2,600), Manuel Margot ($2,500)
Means earned an All-Star appearance last season mostly due to the Orioles' general ineptitude, though he did finish with a solid 3.60 ERA. A 5.48 xFIP indicated serious regression was in order, and it did indeed arrive. He's recorded a 5.63 ERA through eight starts this season, though a 5.55 xFIP suggests he's more or less the same pitcher as last year. Means has trimmed his walk rate from 6.0 percent to 4.5 percent and increased his groundball rate from 30.9 percent to 41.9 percent, but he's also seen his already low 19.0 percent strikeout rate fall to 15.7 percent. To be fair, he's coming off back-to-back starts where he's only allowed two runs, but his overall numbers still make him an appealing stack target - especially in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The Rays shake up their lineup quite often, making the ideal stack hard to pick before lineups come out. But the players listed here should get the platoon advantage while batting in the top half of the order.
