This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Sunday's main FanDuel slate will be quite a busy one, covering 10 of the day's 14 game - including all those that start between 1:05 and 3:10 p.m. EDT. The Pirates at Reds contest would have made it 11 games, but the remainder of that series was canceled after a Red tested positive for COVID-19. The pitcher pool should lead to some rather interesting choices, as there's a $2,300 gap between the most expensive option (Max Scherzer) and the rest of the field.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer, WAS at BAL ($11,100): As mentioned in the introduction, you'll have to pay up to get Scherzer, but his price seems well-deserved as he easily offers the highest upside on the slate. While the Orioles have been surprisingly hot to start the season ranking sixth in team wRC+ heading into Saturday's games, this is still largely the same team that ranked 22nd in that category last season and a strong 20-game stretch doesn't mean this is suddenly a tough outing. Scherzer's 12.0 percent walk rate through his first four starts is a worry, but his 34.9 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his numbers from the last three seasons.
Elieser Hernandez, MIA vs. ATL ($6,800): Hernandez faces a Braves' team ranked a mediocre 15th in wRC+ through Friday and which currently has a huge, Ronald Acuna-shaped hole in its lineup. He's looked quite good through two outings by posting a 2.79 ERA and backing that number up with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and a 5.1 percent walk rate. Hernandez has perhaps been a bit lucky to have only allowed one homer, considering he's managed a miniscule 24.0 percent groundball rate. But the loss of Acuna, who homered 41 times last year, helps in that regard and makes Hernandez an interesting cheap option with some strikeout upside.
John Means, BAL vs. WAS ($6,200): Means comes with plenty of risk, though that's reflected in his price. He's struggled to a 7.71 ERA over his first two starts, and it's not clear how deep he'll be able to pitch Sunday as he hasn't pitched since Aug. 4 due to a bereavement absence followed by time spent on the injured list from intake testing upon his return. The struggling Nationals don't represent the toughest matchup, ranking 18th in wRC+ through Friday's games. But what makes Means particularly interesting here is his surprising jump in velocity, with his fastball clocking in at 94.8 mph on average after sitting at 91.8 mph last season. That's the sort of thing that can cause us to change our expectations of pitchers early in the year, so Means could be worth a cheap flyer despite his poor early results.
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI vs. NYM ($4,100): Harper has been on a tear to start the year, hitting .346/.477/.673 with four homers in his first 16 games while scoring 16 runs and driving in 12 more. He's demonstrating excellent control of the zone, walking as many times - 11 - as he's struck out. Harper will earn the platoon advantage against Rick Porcello, who's following up his 5.52 ERA from last year with a 5.68 mark this season, and will get to hit at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Brandon Lowe, TAM at TOR ($4,000): Lowe has gotten off to an excellent start this season by slashing .324/.390/.703 through 21 games. He's homered six times, scoring 17 runs and driving in 19. Perhaps, most encouragingly, Lowe's strikeout rate - which sat at a worryingly high 34.6 percent despite his strong overall performance last year - has fallen considerably and now sits at a barely worse than average 24.4 percent. He'll get the platoon advantage against Blue Jays' righty Matt Shoemaker, who enters with a 4.86 ERA and 17.6 percent strikeout rate through his first three starts.
Bargain Bats
Jonathan Villar, MIA vs. ATL ($2,600): Villar hasn't done a ton in his first 14 games for the Marlins, though he hasn't been terrible hitting .246/.313/.351. Where he's excelled, not unexpectedly, is on the basepaths where his six steals tie him for the league lead. The Marlins have been quite surprising overall this year and receive a rather easy matchup against Robbie Erlin, who's allowed six runs in six innings this year after posting a 5.37 ERA last season. Several of Miami's top hitters could be worth a look in this one, though Villar boasts the best combination of track record and price.
Ryan Braun, MIL at CHC ($2,400): While Cubs' starter Jon Lester comes in with a 1.06 ERA through three starts, that's come with a laughably unsustainable .120 BABIP and a 94.8 percent strand rate, with his 13.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.74 xFIP telling a very different story about his performance to date. The Brewers' top bats should certainly be in play here. Braun may be well past his peak, but he remains a capable bat who looks very underpriced on this slate. He's barely played this season due to an infected finger, but looked quite healthy in his second game back from the injured list Saturday when he drilled a pair of doubles.
Stacks to Consider
Indians vs. Michael Fulmer: Jose Ramirez ($3,800), Francisco Lindor ($3,400), Cesar Hernandez ($2,700)
Fulmer has produced one good and one bad appearance in his first two outings since recovering from Tommy John surgery, giving up a combined four runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings. Even when he's fully up to speed, expectations should be rather muted after he posted a 4.69 ERA and a 19.7 percent strikeout rate in 2018 before missing all of the next season due to surgery. Fulmer's only expected to throw a few innings Sunday before turning things over to lefty Tyler Alexander, who carries an unimpressive 4.85 ERA in 65 career big-league innings. Piggybacking a righty and a lefty would ordinarily be an issue for a stack, but that's not the case in Cleveland where the lineup typically begins with four straight switch hitters. The stack featured here contains three of those, ignoring the struggling Carlos Santana.
Mariners vs. Lance McCullers: Kyle Lewis ($3,200), Kyle Seager ($3,200), J.P. Crawford ($2,900)
McCullers is nowhere near the least talented pitcher on this slate, but it's hard to argue he's looked decent in his first four starts back from Tommy John surgery since he's managed a 6.10 ERA. His seven scoreless innings last time out against the Giants suggests he's turning a corner, though he only struck out five batters in that matchup and where he's striking out a worryingly low 18.2 percent of opposing hitters. That's a startling drop from McCullers' 26.9 percent strikeout rate in 2018. His name recognition is far greater than his performance level at the moment, which means this could be an underappreciated stack - albeit a risky one if he's suddenly back to his previous form.
Rangers vs. Jon Gray: Joey Gallo ($4,000), Shin-Soo Choo ($3,700), Willie Calhoun ($3,200)
"This game is taking place at Coors Field" might be all that needs to be said about this one, though it's worth noting that Gray - who's at times been solid enough to dissuade stacking the opposing lineup in Denver - hasn't looked like himself this season. His 6.41 ERA through four starts tells the story well enough, though that stat can vary quite a bit in small samples. Gray's dramatic drop in strikeout rate - which sits at 10.2 percent after coming in at 23.5 percent last season - is rather worrying especially paired with a drop in velocity, as his fastball has averaged 93.8 mph after sitting at 96.1 mph in 2019.
