This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Man, I got a few things right Friday in my least favorite large slate. Let's see if I can start a heater by identifying some of the right plays for Saturday's main slate, which is limited to a far more manageable six-game slate.
Pitching
Trevor Bauer, LAD vs. SD ($11,000): Bauer is the slate's only five-digit arm. He's had a 40-FanDuel Point (FDP) floor, which came in his last start against these Padres. You're seemingly paying for stability, even when facing one of the league's best lineups, and with lesser names littering Saturday night's pitching, there's plenty to be said for building around Bauer.
Pablo Lopez, MIA at SF ($8,200): While I like Lopez' adversary in Kevin Gausman ($9,400), they seem to profile similarly, and Lopez comes at a $1,200 discount. Lopez is off to a terrific start, fanning 10.38 per nine, which should play well against a Giants lineup that's whiffing 28.9 percent of the time. His other numbers are skewed by the six runs he allowed against Atlanta, as he's surrendered only two total in three other outings, including a six-inning, nine-K shutout of the Giants, yielding 49 FDP.
Dallas Keuchel, CWS vs. TEX ($5,800): I absolutely advise paying for a solid arm Saturday, but if you're willing to roll the dice to stack your lineup, Keuchel is the clear answer. He's faced decent offenses thus far, which the Rangers aren't, owning a mere .267 wOBA, 72 wRC+ and 27.7 percent K rate against lefties. He's worked five innings in three of four and, at this number, he should be good for 4x, and if he can flirt with a quality start, he'll return even more.
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI at COL ($4,800): The price didn't budge from Friday, which is unfortunate, but what did move is the pitching numbers above. It's certainly conceivable we can pair Harper with a top arm Saturday, which should be the building blocks for lineup construction Saturday in cash formats. If you trust stats over form, however, Harper is a fade for GPPs. He's 1-of-7 against Antonio Senzatela in his career, who has better splits at home and against lefties than he does against same-handed bats, though that feels like an anomaly.
Justin Turner, LAD vs. SD ($3,800): Turner just mashes lefties, so I'm not worrying about Blake Snell's presence, other than his inefficiency leading to fewer than hoped for RvL matchups. Turner has a .510 wOBA, 226 wRC+, 1.227 OPS and .400 ISO in this spot across 30 plate appearances. He was down in 2020 but had a .385/142/.939/.294 tally in 2019. That should play stably Saturday.
Carson Kelly, ARI at ATL ($3,700): It seems blasphemous to have a catcher priced this high, but here we are. Kelly is raking, especially against lefties, to the tune of an obscene and obviously unsustainable .950 wOBA, 502 wRC+ and 1.125 ISO against lefties. That's due to three homers in eight ABs. But Kelly went yard Friday in Atlanta, and Braves' starter Drew Smyly has been far more generous to righties. Arizona features a heavy left-handed lineup, which pushes Kelly up in the order. The Braves are also lefty-heavy in the bullpen, suggesting Kelly gets at least three ABs in an RvL matchup. Keep an eye on weather here, however, as this game has a reasonable PPD risk.
Value Bats
Manny Machado, SD at LAD ($3,500): This is a strict BvP angle, so if that's not your cup of tea, move on to other options. But Machado seems to have Bauer figured out. He's 10-of-17 with four homers, leading to a 2.078 OPS, with four walks sprinkled in. He went 3-for-4 in Bauer's last start against the Padres. You'd expect low usage given the name on the bump, so why not?
Atlanta Braves secondary bats: This is wide open, and you make the call based on affordability and positional need. Madison Bumgarner is a shell of his former self, allowing a .420 wOBA to lefties and a .426 wOBA to righties. Ozzie Albies ($3,300) is almost always the play when facing a lefty. Dansby Swanson ($2,700) is off to a cold start, yet still owns a .460 wOBA against southpaws to date. Travis d'Arnaud ($2,800) sits with a .393 wOBA and mere 11.1 K rate and is fresh off of two days rest, and Austin Riley ($2,400) is clearly starting to warm, homering in consecutive games while collecting six hits in his last three. Heck, even Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) is priced favorably. The lineup positions don't make for a traditional stack, and I'm not advocating for multiple pieces here, just that the bottom two-thirds of the lineup are priced favorably in a plus spot. The weather caveat from above carries here, too, obviously.
Stacks to Consider
Rockies vs. Aaron Nola: Charlie Blackmon ($4,000), Ryan McMahon ($3,900), Raimel Tapia ($3,100)
GPPs only, as Nola has been brilliant to date. But he wasn't in his last outing in Coors Field, allowing three runs (two homers) in 5.2 innings (though striking out nine). This stack gives us three lefties to combat Nola, all hitting in the top four of the order. Blackmon isn't off to a great start, but is 7-of-13 in his career off of Philadelphia's ace. Tapia is off to a nice start, owning a .389 wOBA against righties, and McMahon offers some pop. I wouldn't expect high usage here given Nola's presence, but ignoring Coors Field is at your own risk.
Athletics vs. TBD: Matt Olson ($3,700), Mark Canha ($3,500), Seth Brown ($2,900)
As this column came together, the stacking options seemed to shrink, so much so I'm more in favor of some two-man mini-stacks as opposed to going all in on one offense. And the Orioles haven't even named a starter for Saturday, making matchups a little more challenging. They used Dean Kremer in their fifth spot last week, and we'll just assume a righty gets the nod. Olson is locked in, collecting two hits last night, riding an eight-game hitting streak and hitting safely in 10 of 11. He boasts a .490 wOBA and .348 ISO. This isn't a traditional stack, as Brown will hit in the bottom portion of the order, but he's equally hot, with six hits in his last four, and a .393 wOBA and .323 ISO. Canha should hit leadoff and is third behind these two with a .377 wOBA against righties. If the Orioles pivot to a lefty, I doubt he'd last long, and they'd use their bullpen heavily. But maybe slide out Brown and move in Jed Lowrie ($3,400).
