This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Nine games await Saturday evening's main slate. It looks like a top-heavy pitching evening, with three favorable matchups for the five-figure arms.
Pitching
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. SEA ($10,000): As noted above, there isn't a wrong choice amongst the three top arms. But Gallen seems to present the best. The Mariners are the worst of the three offenses these arms face, carrying a .317 wOBA and .154 ISO into the contest, though fanning only 22.5 percent of the time. Gallen is coming off of his worst start of the year, allowing four runs in route to 21 FanDuel points (FDP), something he'll look to atone for, and could keep his usage lower than usual.
Justus Sheffield, SEA vs. ARI ($8,600): Two nights in a row I've written up both arms in this series. And in this instance, it's for the exact same reason. The Mariners are throwing another lefty, and the Diamondbacks can't hit lefties. It's that simple. Arizona ranks last in the league with a .265 wOBA, 60 wRC+ and .105 ISO. They fan only 21.6 percent of the time, which could zap some upside, and Sheffield has topped 40 FDP just once in his last four, but the floor seems very safe.
Dakota Hudson, STL vs. CIN ($7,800): Hudson has been surprisingly usable of late, and that includes two starts against these Reds, where he's earned 32 and 49 FDP, striking out 13 in 11.2 innings. The Reds just haven't put it together offensively all year, and carry a 24.8 percent K rate and an 89 wRC+ into Saturday.
Trevor Williams, PIT at KAN ($6,400): I'm hoping this isn't too obvious a pay down for GPPs. Williams has posted 21 FDP or better in six of his last seven. If he can match that, it's better than a 3x return on value. His 8.5 K/9 isn't huge, but it's a career high, and if he can mix that in with his 41.0 percent ground ball rate, paired with the Royals' 41.8 percent ground ball rate, and he's in a nice spot to limit damage.
Top Targets
Anthony Rendon, LAA at COL ($4,500): This is by no means a knock on Mike Trout ($5,000), but for a bit of a savings, we can target an almost-as-good bat with favorable splits in a favorable spot. Rendon owns a .403 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .308 ISO against lefties, and is 4 of 10 in his career against Kyle Freeland.
Jose Abreu, CWS vs DET ($3,700): While we all know the power upside; Abreu is riding a 22-game hitting streak into Saturday, dating back to August 16. That should give him a stable floor against Michael Fulmer, who is allowing a whopping .593 wOBA and 14.61 FIP to righties. Abreu is also 6-of-17 with a homer against Fulmer.
Jose Ramirez, CLE at MIN ($3,700): Ramirez brings a .456 wOBA against lefties to the docket, adding a .390 ISO and 41.2 percent hard hit rate. Twins' starter Rich Hill is throwing his fastball and curveball at equal rates (160 to 159 total), and Ramirez has a .496 wOBA 228 wRC+ against the curve.
Value Bats
Sam Hilliard, COL vs. LAA ($3,000): Hilliard hasn't started since September 7, so this will require some adjustments prior to lock. But he leads the Rockies with a .364 wOBA and 305 ISO against righties entering a matchup with Jaime Barria, who allows a .352 wOBA to lefties. Raimel Tapia ($3,200) makes for an easy pivot as the lineup dictates.
Nomar Mazara, CWS vs. DET ($2,300): This is all about Fulmer on the mound, and Mazara's prior success against him. We noted Fulmer being far more vulnerable to righties above, but he's still allowing a targetable 5.11 xFIP to lefties to date. Mix in that Mazara is 5-of-9 with a homer and three walks against him, and there's a clear chance to return value.
This section is admittedly limited, but the below stacks offer the choice to pick and choose some one-offs at a discount.
Stacks to Consider
Tigers at Reynaldo Lopez: Jonathan Schoop ($3,000), Jeimer Candelario ($3,000), Victor Reyes ($2,900)
Low hanging fruit or not? Stacking against Lopez makes too much sense, but the Tigers are, well, the Tigers. Lopez has allowed nine runs and 14 hits across 9.2 frames to date, allowing a .478 wOBA to lefties and .454 to righties. This stack is clearly dirt cheap, and any option offers stand alone appeal as a value, but they represent the top three Tigers against righties, and likely hit 1-2-4 in the lineup.
Cubs vs. Brett Anderson: Ian Happ ($3,300), Kris Bryant ($3,000), Javier Baez ($2,900)
That Happ leads this stack in cost is shocking, equally as much so as the fact that his .345 wOBA is third amongst Cub bats. That doesn't scream anchor, but it does lend optimism to a 2x floor. Bryant has largely seen a lost season, but has a .439 wOBA and 175 wRC+ against lefties, leading the team. Baez, meanwhile, just hasn't figured things out on the shortened year, but his .256 ISO leads the team and presents at least some upside.
