This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A nine-game slate is featured with Saturday's main contest, perhaps a little more manageable than Friday's full 15-game contests.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($11,500) highlights on the bump, with only Hyun-Jin Ryu ($10,700) checking north of five figures. Fading deGrom in cash lineups will be tough, as the Royals have only a .305 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against righties. The 36 FanDuel points (FDP) he's coming off of tied a seven-game low, and he's fanned at least seven in 12 of his last 13. They don't come much safer. Ryu continues to be remarkable at limiting runs, but he's fanned only nine in his last three starts, spanning 19.2 innings. He had a complete-game shutout against Atlanta earlier in the year, fanning six. I wouldn't fade him, but he's also not a preferred target for me against an always capable Braves' lineup, even when decimated by injury.
Jose Berrios ($9,100) is heavily discounted, but has only gone for 36 FDP total in his last two and is in a tough spot at a heat-infested Globe Life Park. He's allowed three long balls in his last 11.2 innings, and while a bounce back is overdue, this isn't the time to predict that. Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,400) is appealing because of Boston's (-280) status as a heavy favorite, and he's allowed only three runs while fanning 12 in 13.2 innings against Baltimore to date.
The rest of this middle-tier on the bump is littered with mediocre, at best, options. Jakob Junis ($8,500) looks way overpriced in a matchup against deGrom, which is seemingly unwinnable. Dinelson Lamet ($8,200) is missing a ton of bats (12.6 K/9), but the Phillies offense is surging under Charlie Manuel and fans only a modest 22.9 percent of the time previously. Mike Foltynewicz ($7,200) has gone for 33.5 FDP on average in two starts since his recall, but it's a product of 14 Ks in 11.1 innings. L.A. fans only 20.4 percent of the time in this spot while ranking third with a .347 wOBA against righties. If he leaves the ball up, which he has, it's going to be a long night.
German Marquez ($7,600) may merit some consideration, even with his start coming in Coors Field. I don't love it, but he's gone for 40 or more FDP in four of five, twice posting 52 points. His home 6.45 ERA isn't supported by a 3.37 xFIP. The ballpark factor only goes so far for a Marlins offense that has a league-low .284 wOBA and 76 wRC+ against righties while fanning 25.0 percent of the time.
Key Chalk/Value
As much as I don't like the Marlins bats in Coors, it's impossible not to build around the Rockies' bats, who should tee off on Hector Noesi ($5,500). He's allowing a .489 wOBA to righties on the road, without a ballpark factor. Cash lineups should emphasize Nolan Arenado ($4,600) and Trevor Story ($4,500).
Red Sox bats will be equally popular against Baltimore's Asher Wojciechowski ($6,800), but there isn't going to be any value found in this lineup. His splits suggest targeting lefties against, so we'll recommend Rafael Devers ($4,400), Andrew Benintendi ($3,700) and Mitch Moreland ($3,200). Maybe Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2,500) for cheap exposure, but he isn't exactly a value play despite having hit safely in five of seven.
Lefties Jose Suarez ($5,800) and Hector Santiago ($5,700) square off in Anaheim with a 10.5 run total, and look like a possible game stack/value opportunity. Mike Trout ($4,900) is priced high, but a great cash game anchor, but few other Angels have great splits against southpaws. Matt Thaiss ($2,600) has only 13 ABs in this situation, which have been successful. Albert Pujols ($3,300) has a .252 ISO in this spot and may be worth a GPP flier for a long ball. On the White Sox side, Jose Abreu ($4,000) and his .410 wOBA and .262 ISO present very well, while James McCann ($3,000) and Leury Garcia ($3,000) have the next best splits against lefties.
San Francisco could be another option for cheap offense against Arizona's Taylor Clarke (unlisted), who appears set to replace Merrill Kelly as the starter. He's allowing a .386 wOBA to righties, so there's some quiet appeal to Kevin Pillar ($3,400), Evan Longoria ($3,200) and Buster Posey ($2,800)
Stacks
Twins vs. Ariel Jurado (Rangers)
Max Kepler (OF - $4,000), Jorge Polanco (SS - $3,800), Luis Arraez (2B - $3,100)
The Twins depth of power makes the entire lineup desirable, but current struggles have most priced down, so there may be no wrong answer here. Arraez is a great bargain, as he has a .396 wOBA and 147 wRC+ in this spot. It's a stack against Jurado's numbers, as he's been more vulnerable to same-handed bats, but Kepler's .297 ISO and Polanco's .378 wOBA against righties work well here. Jurado has allowed five or more runs in three of his last six, and he's going to be an obvious arm to go against, making this a matchup that likely should be listed in the chalk section. If we buy into the .370 wOBA he allows to righties, Miguel Sano ($3,500), Mitch Garver ($3,400) and C.J. Cron ($3,200) are great cost savers.
Dodgers vs. Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)
Cody Bellinger (OF - $4,700), Max Muncy (2B - $3,800), Justin Turner (3B - $3,600)
After watching the Dodgers launch bombs Friday in Suntrust Park, it's hard not to expect more fireworks against Foltynewicz, who allows 20.0 percent of his fly balls to leave the yard and has a 42.3 percent fly ball rate. He's been more vulnerable to same-handed bats at home, allowing a .401 wOBA and .989 OPS, which makes Turner and his .377 wOBA against same-handed arms a great option, and possibly puts A.J. Pollock ($3,400) as a sneaky option. But this lineup is lefty heavy, and we'll side with their success against righties over Folty's current struggles. Bellinger sports a .435 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .362 ISO against opposite-handed arms, while Muncy goes .368/131/.261. With Ryu and his 1.45 ERA on the bump and a run total of 10.5, expect the Dodgers to get to Foltynewicz early and often.
Diamondbacks vs. Conner Menez (Giants)
Ketel Marte (2B - $4,000), Eduardo Escobar (3B - $3,900), Christian Walker (1B - $3,300)
It's a small sample size, but Menez has a 7.11 ERA and 7.01 FIP in 12.2 MLB innings, surrendering a .409 wOBA and 1.012 OPS to righties. That puts nearly the entire D'Backs lineup into play. Marte has a .414 wOBA, 155 wRC+ and .308 ISO in this spot, while Escobar goes .403/148/.303. Wilmer Flores ($2,700), Nick Ahmed ($3,300) and Carson Kelly ($2,900) present slightly more favorably than does Walker, but I like Walker's power potential here in a run producing spot in the lineup. Pivoting away in favor of any of those three absolutely works.
