This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
It's great to be back on the grind after a full week off, having been on the road last weekend to Las Vegas prior to the start of the All-Star break.
The early forecast calls for rain in Cincinnati (Reds/Pirates) and Detroit (Tigers/Red Sox), though that snapshot was taken more than eight hours prior to lineup lock Friday night.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Trevor Bauer, CLE at TEX ($12,200)
Also Consider: David Price, BOS at DET ($8,400) **Check Weather**
With seven of the top-nine projected scoring starters on the road, the cash-game options are lighter than expected for the first full day of games following the All-Star break. The Rockies are on the road, so the Coors stack money isn't necessary this week, which makes it even easier to pony up more than $12K for Bauer. The matchup is a good one for Cleveland's ace, as he will face a Rangers club with a low wRC+ against right-handed pitching (89, 24th in MLB) with a strikeout rate above 25 percent in that split this season.
Using Price will require an improvement in the forecast, which as of Friday morning was calling for 30 percent chance of rain (or higher) throughout the evening from first pitch on in Detroit. If things clear and the necessary weather experts sign off on the game getting in without a lengthy delay, Price will face the league's worst offense over the last 30 days (67 wRC+), and one that we'll frequently target throughout the final two-plus months of the season. I can't emphasize this enough. Check. The. Weather. Before. Using. Price.
Preferred Tournament Play: Bauer
Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. ATL ($10,000), Robbie Ray, AZ vs. COL ($7,600), Nathan Eovaldi, TB vs. MIA ($7,200), Jake Arrieta, PHI vs. SD ($8,000)
There are enough warts with the alternatives to make Bauer my preferred play in tournaments, but for those looking to load up more expensive bats, there are a few other arms to consider.
Strasburg is making his first start since going on the DL, facing a Braves team that continues to temper strikeouts (20.5% vs. RHP in 2018), but one that has actually been a tick below league average (93 wRC+) is terms of its overall offensive output against righties this season. Strasburg went five innings while striking out seven and allowed three unearned runs in his final rehab start, so the shred of uncertainty about his workload cap Friday bumps him out of cash-game consideration despite the extremely reasonable price.
The Rockies on the road are an easier lineup to pick on with right-handed pitching, but the very low price on a high strikeout ceiling lefty in Ray puts them under the microscope again. With a near league-average wRC+ mark against southpaws (97) and a 21.9% K% that also ranks near the middle of the pack, using Ray hinges on how much you trust him to avoid being himself up with free passes, which have been an issue throughout the season. In four starts since returning from an oblique injury, Ray has a 28:10 K:BB in 20.2 innings. While there is considerable risk, there is even more upside, though the price might drive up his ownership rate slightly.
Eovaldi dropped a -13 on owners in his final start before the break last week -- and he was the first pitcher that didn't make the cut for this piece on that Friday. The Rays have been letting him pitch deep into his starts, and a home matchup against the Marlins after a complete disaster start is a path to get back on track. The Marlins have a subpar 90 wRC+ against righties this season, while they've fanned at an above-average 22.5% clip.
I thought the days of recommending Arrieta might be over during the first half of 2017. He's at home against a San Diego lineup with the request combination of a high strikeout rate (25.9%) and punchless offense (81 wRC+, tied for the second-lowest mark in MLB) that we covet. He's eclipsed 40 FanDuel points in seven starts this season, failed to crack 20 in six starts, and finished somewhere in between in the other five. Even as somebody who sees a very different pitcher than the one who was dominant atop the Cubs' rotation a few years back, there is enough left in the tank to make Arrieta viable when he draws a bottom-five offense at home.
Catcher/First Base
Matt Olson ($3,100) continue to be a better fit for GPP lineups than cash games because of his elevated strikeout rate, though he's improved slightly on that front since his rookie campaign dropping his K% from 27.8 to 25.2% in 2018. Giants rookie Dereck Rodriguez (son of Pudge) has been a pleasant surprise this season, and while he's been effective at keeping the ball in the park thus far since his promotion to San Francisco (three homers allowed in 46.2 IP), he struggled in that area during his time at Triple-A Sacramento (11 in 50.1 IP), suggesting that his baseline is probably somewhere in between. The Oakland-San Francisco matchup carries a meaty 9.0 over/under total with Rodriguez squaring off against Edwin Jackson.
Jose Abreu ($2,800) is still very cheap, and he begins his second half on the road against Seattle lefty Wade LeBlanc. Perhaps a couple days off following Tuesday's All-Star Game will get him back on track at the plate after a prolonged slump wrapped up his disappointing first half.
If the rain holds off in Detroit, Steve Pearce ($3,300) is an easy cash-game solution against Matthew Boyd and the Tigers.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, BAL at TOR ($3,000) -- Since the calendar flipped to July, Schoop has hit .368/.362/.579 with a pair of homers in 15 games, looking much more like the player who pushed his way into top-60 overall consideration during draft season. The supporting cast around him takes a huge hit with Manny Machado's departure to the Dodgers, but Schoop will remain in the heart of the Baltimore lineup with a matchup against Sam Gaviglio on Friday night in Toronto.
Relatively speaking, second base is a wasteland Friday despite the 14-game slate. Jed Lowrie ($3,300) is a solid play in cash games and GPPs in the aforementioned home matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, while Daniel Descalso ($2,600 vs. German Marquez) and Logan Forsythe ($2,200 vs. Wade Miley in Milwaukee) might be worth sneaking into lineups if they end up getting the call for their respective clubs in order to spend up elsewhere in tournaments.
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD at MIL ($3,200) -- Turner, with the candlestick, cheap, against a mediocre lefty, at Miller Park. (Opens yellow envelope, laughs maniacally.) Dodgers stacks figure to be very popular on this slate, and behind new teammate Manny Machado, Turner could check in with the highest ownership rate of the lot. Adjust elsewhere in the lineup to avoid some chalk if you're using him in tournaments.
Remember when Jake Lamb ($2,800) at home against a righty was among the first reads and strongest plays at third base? Since returning from the DL in May, Lamb is hitting .224/.310/.368 with six homers and 23 RBI (surprisingly averaging 9.2 FanDuel points per game). German Marquez is a borderline tournament consideration the mound, but since I have no plans to use him, Lamb is on my radar as a tournament-play thanks to his buy-low price tag.
Shortstop
In cash games, I have no problem at all with Manny Machado ($4,200) is his debut for the Dodgers against Wade Miley and the Brewers. In tournaments, expect a very high ownership rate given the makeup of this large slate and the somewhat limited number of punching bags to pick on. Interestingly enough, Chris Taylor ($3,300) is still only shortstop-eligible, even though he's moving into a super utility role. Relatively speaking, he's a more interesting tournament play as it seems likely that he'll be overlooked even if the Dodgers give him a nod at second base or in the outfield.
Trea Turner, WAS vs. ATL ($3,600) -- Anibal Sanchez's resurgence this season has been a very pleasant surprise for the Braves. While Sanchez has altered his pitch mix a bit and it looks real enough to modify expectations that he will be a gas can again, he's more likely to pitch to a 4.00-4.20 ERA the rest of the way than he is to stay under 3.00 with a tidy WHIP as he has to this point. As for Turner, he'll be a huge part of the Nats' post-break surge to the top of the NL East, and his top-end speed helps to offset a lighter-than-optimal amount of power in his splits against righties since the start of last season (.282/.343/.452).
Outfield
Rhys Hoskins, PHI vs. SD ($3,400) -- Taking Clayton Richard out of Petco and dropping him in a park that spikes home runs opens up a lot of interesting possibilities, but this is low-hanging fruit...or at least a chalk-drawing of a big bowl of fruit. Richard has a .357 wOBA against right-handed hitters since the start of 2016 -- fifth-worst on the slate -- and his sub-15 percent K% makes him particularly vulnerable. He wasn't mentioned above, but those fearing high ownership rates in tournaments (I'm planning on playing him anyway) can consider Carlos Santana as a viable alternative to get exposure, either at first base, or as a utility option.
Nelson Cruz, SEA vs. CHW ($3,800) -- The Mariners open their second half with a home series against the White Sox, with James Shields taking the ball Friday night. Cruz's reputation as an automatic play against left-handed pitching has overshadowed splits that are actually better against righties (.292/.360/.557) since the start of last season. With a 1.73 HR/9 against righties since the start of 2016, Shields been prone to the long ball in a big way (fifth-highest among Friday's starters), and he'll face a well-rested Cruz, who was limited to pinch-hitting duties last weekend in Colorado before the layoff.
Brandon Nimmo, NYM at NYY ($3,200) -- Nimmo has been recommended a few times in recent weeks despite uncertainty about his health. The hope is that a few days off for the All-Star break, a road series at Yankee Stadium providing a big power boost, and a matchup against inexperienced righty Domingo German can propel him to be a useful tournament play Friday night. German has the fifth-highest home-run rate against left-handed hitters (1.57 HR/9) on this slate, which could lead one to apply the same principles to an even cheaper Michael Conforto ($2,700).
