This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The All-Star break looms after the weekend, but we've got a weekend packed full of great matchups in the final series before the layoff.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. OAK ($9,400)
Also Consider: Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. WAS ($10,000)
There are two games on the Friday slate with over/under totals less than 8.0, and the Battle of the Bay is one of them (Nats-Mets is the other). Bumgarner is safer than Noah Syndergaard because of the uncertainty about Syndergaard's workload cap in his first start back from the DL. In his lone rehab start with Brooklyn on Sunday, Syndergaard cruised through five innings and struck out seven while throwing 71 pitches. If the Mets keep him in the 85-90 range, he'll need to be very efficient to have a shot at the quality start bonus. The A's have a 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season (23.4% K%) while the Nationals have a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (21.2% K%). The difference in opponent is negligible based on the season output to date, and the moneyline suggests that the Giants (-161) have a slightly higher win probability than the Mets (-140).
Preferred Tournament Play: Bumgarner
Also Consider: Syndergaard, Carlos Martinez, STL vs. CIN ($8,800), Rick Porcello, BOS vs. TOR ($9,600), Walker Buehler, LAD vs. LAA ($7,800), Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. DET ($9,000)
It's reasonable to expect Bumgarner to be the highest-owned pitcher on the board, so using him tournaments is a matter of having a couple of twists elsewhere the lineup to avoid being too chalky, but I think there are enough bad pitchers on the board to make a lot of viable (and unique) combinations of bats to get away with a chalky arm. If I end up with a Syndergaard lineup, it will be a GPP, as I don't typically build more than one cash-game lineup on any particular slate.
Martinez seems to have kicked his temporary issue with walks, having issued just three over his three starts (19 innings), while racking up 18 strikeouts and allowing just five earned runs during that span. His match up against the Reds comes at home, which puts him in a pitcher-friendly environment, albeit against a Cincinnati lineup that has been near the league average in wRC+ (99) against righties this season.
Porcello and Keuchel often get dinged for their perceived lack of a strikeout ceiling, but that problem is more of an issue for Keuchel. The Tigers have been surprisingly productive against lefties this season, but their overall offensive output over the last 30 days has resulted in a 77 wRC+ and a 23.6% K%. As for Porcello's matchup with the Blue Jays, the Toronto offense has been a near league-average unit without Josh Donaldson (99 wRC+ vs. RHP), while posting the 11th-highest K% in the league in that split.
Finally, the return of Buehler from the DL (ribs) at a low price, and with a chance to pitch at home, will make him an interesting GPP-only consideration. The fear here is that he will almost certainly be under a tighter workload restriction than Syndergaard, which makes the five-and-fly potential very high against an Angels lineup with a very low K% (20.1%).
Catcher/First Base
If the budget isn't a concern, Ian Desmond is $3,800 at home against Christian Bergmann. Ownership rates will swell accordingly. Desmond's 18 homers with a career-high 62.8% groundball rate don't make any sense to me, and even more confusing, is that he's hit 13 of his homers away from Coors Field. On the other side, Ryon Healy is extremely cheap ($3,200) given the circumstances. He's better against righties than you might think, and Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a sub-20 percent K% against righties and lefties.
It's a righty-righty matchup, and he might be highly owned after homering Thursday, but Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400) is a very interesting option priced in the middle of the pack in a game that carries a high (9.5) over/under total against Domingo German and the Yankees.
Jose Abreu has been worth every penny of the contract he signed with the White Sox as an international free agent out of Cuba, but he's been mired in a deep slump, hitting .152/.200/.217 with one home run since June 15. Still, at a heavily discounted price ($2,800), I'm considering him again on a big slate. The Royals are starting Rule 5 pick Brad Keller again Friday, and his 13.8% K% against right-handed hitters is tied for the lowest on the slate. Although Keller has posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 28 appearances (seven starts) this season, his 5.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 leave plenty to be desired.
On the cheap side, Lucas Duda ($2,400) draws James Shields on the road in Chicago, providing a significant park boost for a steady source of left-handed pop in a favorable matchup.
Second Base
Max Muncy's price ($3,900) has fallen just below $4K again. The Dodgers host Felix Pena and the Angels on Friday night, and Pena's three-year wOBA against left-handed hitters is the eighth-worst of the 30 pitchers on the slate. Paying up for a high-end option at the keystone might be the way to go as there isn't much on the discount rack that stands out from a matchup perspective.
Using a similar thought process to the Jose Abreu suggestion above, Yoan Moncada has a chance of being the most chalky tournament play at second base for $3,300. The added benefit of picking on any Kansas City starter is the potential for multiple at-bats against the league's worst bullpen (-1.8 WAR...which includes positive performances from Kelvin Herrera earlier in the season).
Another option for those looking away from Muncy is Jonathan Schoop at $3,300 with a righty-lefty matchup at home against Cole Hamels. Although Hamels has been striking out righties at an elevated clip compared to last season, his home-run rate his swelled (2.0 HR/9), for the first time in his career, his FIP against righties over 5.00 at 5.28.
Third Base
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. CIN ($3,300) -- Reds starter Matt Harvey has gone five starts without allowing a home run, and despite a low strikeout rate (6.4 K/9), he's put together a 3.34 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during that span. Ultimately, the current run of success is coming with a completely different set of supporting skills than his dominant Dark Knight run with the Mets. Carpenter has Chalkasaurus potential with the low price, and a 25-game stretch at the plate in which he's hit .337/.459/.753 with nine homers entering play Friday night. At least in cash games, he's an easy option to lean on in this matchup, and tournament use will simply require finding a few less popular options to fill other lineup spots.
At the same price, Mike Moustakas is another Kansas City bat with a great matchup against James Shields and the White Sox in Chicago. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Moose ends up with an ownership rate that is ⅓ or ¼ of Carpenter's rate, which puts him firmly in the conversation for tournaments.
It seems impossible, but if you're paying up at third base and went to steer away from Nolan Arenado ($4,700) at home, Jose Ramirez ($4,600) could get less attention than he deserves on this slate with Cleveland's matchup against Domingo German.
Adrian Beltre hasn't homered since June 23, and he hasn't topped six FanDuel points in a game since the calendar flipped to July. He's only $2,700 if you believe Alex Cobb is a panacea.
Shortstop
Jean Segura ($4,200) draws righty Antonio Senzatela in Colorado, and Trevor Story ($4,300) will face Christian Bergmann. Both are completely viable if you can afford them, though both are better options in matchups against lefties.
As noted above, the Yankees-Indians matchup in Cleveland has a 9.5 over/under total. Rookie Shane Bieber is pitching for Cleveland, and while he looks the part of a steady mid-rotation starter, his early-career splits against left-handed hitters include a slate-worst .426 wOBA thanks to a 1.59 HR/9. There is no compelling reason to steer away from Yankees righties if you want to get them in a slightly lower-owned situation (mostly due to Coors), but Didi Gregorius ($3,700) is on the short list of lefties positioned to benefit from Bieber's initial struggles against southpaws and Progressive Field's lefty-homer boost.
Brandon Crawford at $3,000 with a home matchup against Edwin Jackson is a steal, even with the power-snuffing tendencies of AT&T Park. Crawford's home-road splits are nearly identical, and he's managed an OPS of .825 or better in San Francisco and elsewhere this season.
Outfield
The Brewers will square off against Nick Kingham at PNC Park, and it's worth considering their left-handed bats if your lineup has room. The best option of the bunch may be Christian Yelich at $3,900, though Eric Thames at $4,000 isn't far behind. As park factors go, PNC plays nearly neutral for left-handed power, and Kingham's splits thus far have been significantly worse against lefties (2.11 HR/9, 14.9% K% -- tied with Kansas City's Brad Keller for the second-lowest on the slate).
Charlie Blackmon at $4,200 with a home matchup against Christian Bergmann is a free square in cash-games. Like a few of the plays listed above, it will be among the more popular choices people make for tournament purposes, and it's really difficult to argue against it from an expected output standpoint. It's just a matter of game theory with respect to the rest of your lineup and what the rest of the pool is likely to do in GPPs.
The added benefit of slight price break on Colorado bats, is that Mookie Betts ($5,200) and J.D. Martinez ($5,100) might be available at lower ownership rates in tournaments for those looking to fade the top-end Rockies and Mariners bats. Toronto's rookie left-hander Ryan Borucki is taking the ball for the Jays on Friday night.
