This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 2-2, -0.29 RW Bucks
Season: 56-60-5, -7.41 RW Bucks
With an all-day Saturday slate on tap, I'm honing in on what I think will be strong offensive performances by two of the most potent lineups in baseball.
Tigers at Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Wily Peralta vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
The Pick: Blue Jays Over 3.5 runs first 5 innings (+115) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Blue Jays to score first and win (+105) for 1 RWBuck
Peralta has been better than expected this season but does have a couple blowups on his ledger against the Royals and Twins (combined 11 earned runs allowed). He faces a Blue Jays squad with increasing urgency and a collective .379 average and 1.245 OPS against him (32 career PAs). Toronto also averages an MLB-high 3.8 runs in the first five innings per home game and boasts a .361 wOBA and .246 ISO against visiting righties in the second half.
Braves at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Drew Smyly vs. Matt Harvey
The Pick: Braves over 5.5 runs (-135) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Over 8.5 runs first 7 innings (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Smyly has been a slightly more effective pitcher on the road and has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts overall. Harvey has also largely turned things around after a ragged start to the season, but he is still 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.64 WHIP at Camden Yards. He's done a reasonably good job against current Braves bats (collective .220 average and .272 OBP), yet the O's bullpen is among the worst in baseball in August with an MLB-high 8.31 ERA and AL-high .381 wOBA surrendered.
