This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday brings us options galore with a 14-game main slate, but only one elite pitcher with a matchup we can feel comfortable playing up for. The interesting thing about such a big slate is we are bound to find several mediocre hurlers worth stacking against.
Pitching Overview
Stephen Strasburg's ($11,400) 30 percent strikeout rate and penchant for throwing groundballs makes him worth a look in most contexts but the Twins are typically DFS poison thanks to their top-5 wOBA and bottom-10 strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. This makes it difficult to justify breaking the bank for Strasburg on a day when we have so many other options.
Sonny Gray ($10,600) has been absolutely unstoppable after a mediocre start to the year, as evidenced by the 1.32 ERA and 90 strikeouts he has logged in 75 innings since July 1. The Mariners have logged a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate against righties this year, making Gray an attractive option as perhaps the most dominant hurler in baseball at the moment.
There's no doubt that a few more eyes will be on Reynaldo Lopez ($9,800) after his sizzling 11-strikeout complete game against the Indians last week, but prospective owners should be aware of the volatility of such a pick, as his last five efforts include two single-digit totals and one shellacking that saw him post -14.7 DraftKings points. The Royals are a bottom-10 team against righties according to wOBA but don't strike out much which should designate Lopez as little more than a high-ceiling GPP play.
The Padres are generally a safe landing spot for opposing pitchers but DFS players need to be careful with Cole Hamels ($9,200) at this price due to the 5.66 ERA he has kept on the road in 2019.
Unfortunately, it will be tough to use either Dustin May ($8,500) or Ross Stripling ($7,300) in what will be a very favorable matchup for both of them against the Orioles. The issue here is that Stripling will likely throw 40-50 pitches before handing the ball over, which could be just enough to siphon the value out of either player. Those who want to take a shot on one of them would be advised to take Stripling as the less expensive arm in cash, as he could make quick enough work of a mediocre offense to return value.
Zach Davies ($6,700) doesn't offer much from a DFS perspective on the surface, but it should be noted that he leans heavily on his changeup. The Marlins are not only the worst team in the league against right-handed pitchers according to wOBA but have also had the least success against the changeup according to RAA.
Key Values
Glenn Sparkman has been destroyed by left-handed hitters in 2019, as we can see from the .569 slugging percentage he has allowed in 60 innings. Yoan Moncada ($4,800) has picked up right where he left off after missing time due to a hamstring injury, and currently holds a .248 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Don't let Martin Perez's solid outing last week fool you. The veteran southpaw has completely collapsed over the last three months, during which time he logged a 5.11 ERA in 81 innings. Howie Kendrick ($4,600) has been strong against both sides of the platoon this year, but only finds regular at-bats against left-handed pitching.
Dallas Keuchel is one of a few pitchers on Wednesday's slate who features drastic home and road splits, as we can see from the 5.26 ERA he has kept in 39.1 frames away from SunTrust Park. This is especially bad news against J.T. Realmuto ($4,500), who holds a .252 ISO against lefty pitchers in 131 at-bats.
Jose Urquidy will take the ball against the A's after an inning or two from Josh James. Urquidy has given up homers to righties and lefties at an accelerated clip but has been hit a little harder by righties in general (.538 slugging percentage allowed). This should be music to the ears of a hitter like Mark Canha ($4,400), who has tallied a .265 ISO and a .405 wOBA against same-handed opposition.
Nick Solak ($4,100) hasn't hit for much power against right-handed pitchers in his cup of coffee with the club this season but has hit the ball well overall, notching a .389 wOBA in 39 at-bats. Austin Pruitt has been hammered by same-handed hitters this year, allowing a .588 slugging percentage in 20 frames.
Robbie Ray is a certified strikeout artist, but a high walk and HR/9 rate makes him vulnerable to patient power hitters. J.D. Davis ($3,900) fits that description, as he has tallied a .206 ISO with a walk rate greater than eight percent against lefty hurlers.
Stacks
Glenn Sparkman against White Sox (Royals)
Yoan Moncada (3B - $4,800) Eloy Jimenez (OF -$4,000) Tim Anderson (SS -$4,900)
The White Sox don't feature as many quality lefty bats as we might like, but Sparkman has struggled against right-handed hitters as well, which we can see from the .481 slugging percentage he's allowed in 57.2 innings.
Indians against Dillon Peters (Angels)
Jordan Luplow (OF-$3,900) Franmil Reyes (OF - $4,000) Roberto Perez (C - $3,600)
Peters has kept an acceptable strikeout rate against righty hitters, but the .548 slugging percentage he has allowed to righties in 38.2 innings makes him a fine stack target. This allows us to focus on moderately priced specialists like Luplow, who has logged a robust .369 ISO against his opposite hand in 111 at-bats.
