This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's eight-game main slate has effectively knocked out the mid-range pitching options but we can still find a value play or two after selecting a top arm. On the offensive side, two hurlers with ERAs in the stratosphere make for juicy stack targets.
Pitching Overview
It's hard to find much fault with Shane Bieber ($11,500) this season due to his 31 percent strikeout rate, five percent walk rate, and the fact that he has thrown grounders at a 45 percent clip. He will take on a White Sox offense that holds the third-lowest wOBA and strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching.
Madison Bumgarner ($10,400) has been excellent over the past two months but prospective owners should remember that he still holds a 4.68 ERA in 75 innings on the road. While the price is high, Bumgarner shouldn't be written off completely, as he will face a Cardinals team that has logged a bottom-10 wOBA against southpaws.
An inability to consistently find the strike zone is the only thing keeping Zac Gallen ($9,600) and his 2.79 ERA from being a slam-dunk DFS option, but that high walk rate shouldn't come into play as much against the Padres, who have walked just seven percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,200) has been one of the best pitchers in the sport for most of the year, but the 32-year-old had a dreadful month of August when he logged a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 innings. Ryu has an attractive matchup against the Rockies away from Coors Field but talk that he may be rested soon to manage fatigue suggests more risk than we might usually encounter.
Jakob Junis ($7,500) is far from perfect but the Tigers are becoming the DFS version of plug-and-play for starting pitchers thanks to the .285 wOBA and 27 percent strikeout rate they have kept against right-handers. Another interesting angle here is how often Junis throws his slider (44 percent), as Detroit is a bottom-5 team against the pitch according to RAA.
Key Values
It remains open season on Edwin Jackson, who has kept an almost incomprehensible 9.35 ERA in 52 innings this year. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler ($4,700) has struck for a .299 ISO and a .373 wOBA against same-handed opposition.
C.J. Cron ($4,600) is someone who is always worthy of consideration when a lefty is on the mound thanks to the .342 ISO and .414 wOBA he has kept against southpaws in 117 at-bats. Eduardo Rodriguez has thrown the ball well overall this season but still holds a 4.42 xFIP against righty hitters.
Matt Beaty ($4,400) is the owner of a drastic reverse split that has seen him post a .236 ISO and a .383 wOBA against righty pitchers in 178 at-bats. He can be considered along with a parade of other hitters against Antonio Senzatela, who holds an ERA approaching 7.00 in 20 starts (99.2 innings) this year.
Mike Freeman ($4,300) finished the month of August having logged a .403 wOBA in 25 at-bats, and has started strong in September, going 9-for-13 in three games since the calendar turned. Ivan Nova has managed to put together a few good outings in 2019 but should be targeted due to the 5.20 xFIP he has notched against left-handed hitters in 82.1 frames.
Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) cooled off substantially after his blazing hot month of July but we should still take a serious look at him when a southpaw toes the rubber due to the .294 ISO he has logged against his opposite hand in 85 at-bats. As stated earlier, Bumgarner has struggled away from Oracle Park this year, allowing a .483 slugging percentage in 75 innings.
Stacks
Royals against Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays)
Jorge Soler (OF- $4,700) Ryan O'Hearn (1B - $3,400) Hunter Dozier (3B/OF - $4,600)
I try to veer away from the most popular stack targets but it's difficult to do anything but load up against Jackson, who may be the worst pitcher in a starting rotation this season. This is particularly true when we can fit in cheap options like O'Hearn, who has logged a .180 ISO and 42 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Dodgers against Antonio Senzatela (Rockies)
Matt Beaty (1B/OF - $4,400) Gavin Lux (2B - $3,700) Corey Seager (SS - $4,300)
Senzatela is another pitcher who probably shouldn't be in a starting five but we can take advantage of his presence with some reasonably priced assets on one of the most powerful offenses in the game. Chief among these assets is Lux, who put up a .327 ISO in 199 at-bats at Triple-A this year.
