This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's jam-packed 11-game main slate features a few high-dollar hurlers that will be hard to pass on but we can find a sneaky GPP punt to mitigate costs. On the offensive side, we see no shortage of struggling pitchers against strong offenses to populate our stacks.
Pitching Overview
Justin Verlander ($12,000) is having a typically fantastic season but one might be taken aback to learn that he has kept a 1.6 HR/9 rate in his 26 starts. This shouldn't matter too much against the Tigers, who hold the second-lowest wOBA and the third-lowest ISO in the league against right-handed pitching this season.
The Blue Jays have always been a tricky team to play against for DFS purposes due to the fact that they hold both a bottom-10 wOBA and a top-10 ISO against right-handed pitching. They will be without the benefit of a designated hitter in the matchup with Walker Buehler ($11,400), who has kept a 1.0 HR/9 rate to go along with a 29 percent strikeout rate.
It will probably surprise some to learn that the Pirates have overtaken the Marlins as the owners of the lowest wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching. Patrick Corbin ($10,800) has struggled mightily on the road in 2019 (5.12 ERA), which should force prospective owners to be a bit cautious, but the 30-year-old has still logged strong strikeout, walk, and groundball numbers overall this season.
Mike Minor's ($10,400) fantastic season has gotten even better in the month of August, when he has kept a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings. The Angels have shown strong walk and strikeout numbers against southpaws in 2019 but still carry a bottom-10 wOBA against them.
It seems likely that Yu Darvish ($10,000) will be a popular option Wednesday due to the 2.36 ERA and 57 strikeouts he has posted in 42 innings since the All-Star break. One caveat for prospective owners would be that the Giants are actually a top-half team on the road this year according to wOBA, despite the fact that they remain a bottom-5 team against right-handers overall.
Adam Wainwright ($9,000) needs to be in player pools whenever he's at home, as he has logged an incredible 2.19 ERA in 65.2 innings at Busch Stadium this year. The Brewers are a middle-of-the-road-team on the road this year but do carry a 25 percent strikeout rate.
Julio Teheran ($8,000) jumps out as a mid-range option in his matchup against the Marlins, who carry the lowest wOBA in the league and a 26 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Teheran has logged a 3.34 ERA at home this season.
Finally, we can take a look at Mike Montgomery ($4,200) as a GPP punt. Montgomery doesn't do much to grab our attention aside from throw grounders at a 45 percent clip but he put up more than 41 DraftKings points in a start against the Tigers recently and will face a Baltimore squad that has logged a bottom-5 wOBA against lefty pitching.
Key Values
Aaron Brooks has been hit hard by both sides of the platoon this year, resulting in a 6.49 ERA in 77.2 innings. Hunter Dozier ($4,900) may not be the most recognizable name in DFS circles but he has shown nice power against right-handed pitchers, notching a .255 ISO in 294 at-bats.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) has dominated righty pitching in 2019, as evidenced by the .257 ISO and .409 wOBA he has logged in 327 at-bats. Dereck Rodriguez has thrown the ball reasonably well against lefties this year but poor strikeout and walk rates have contributed to an xFIP approaching 6.00 in 31 innings.
Victor Robles ($4,400) has had a bit of an up-and-down season in 2019 but has seemingly come alive in August when he has tallied a .373 wOBA in 56 at-bats. Conversely, Joe Musgrove has been absolutely leveled this month, as we can see from the 7.31 ERA he has tallied in 16 innings.
On the subject of strong Augusts, perhaps no one is having a better month than J.D. Davis ($4,300), who has logged a .339 ISO in 56 at-bats. Adam Plutko has had a real problem keeping the ball in the yard against right-handed hitters, having allowed 11 homers in just 37 innings.
Gary Sanchez ($4,100) needs to be in all player pools at this price thanks to the .300 ISO he has tallied against right-handed pitching in 260 at-bats. It will be difficult to find a bigger disparity between ERA and xFIP than the one held by Mike Fiers, which could make him a sneaky target against a powerful Yankee lineup.
Stacks
Royals against Aaron Brooks (Orioles)
Hunter Dozier (3B - $4,900) Alex Gordon (OF - $4,000) Whit Merrifield (2B/OF - $4,900)
The current iteration of the Royals lineup isn't exactly filled with household names but we can still find relatively cheap options like Gordon to play against one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the slate. Those looking to save money can plug in struggling hitters likely to be in good spots, such as Ryan O'Hearn (1B -$3,000), who will likely bat in the middle of the lineup.
Cubs against Dereck Rodriguez (Giants)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $4,600) Kyle Schwarber (OF - $4,200) Nicholas Castellanos (OF - $4,300)
We find ourselves able to roster a surprisingly affordable stack against Rodriguez on Wednesday, as each player carries an ISO north of .200. Rodriguez's advanced metrics don't forecast quite as much doom against righty hitters but he still holds a 4.70 xFIP in 40.1 innings.
