This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's 10-game evening slate gives us plenty to think about, including overpriced studs and tasty value options. Prospective owners should be careful of one hurler with what may look to be a favorable matchup, as his numbers this season aren't all they are cracked up to be.
Pitching Overview
Gerrit Cole's price ($12,000) is a bit of a head-scratcher. It's not as though the 28-year-old hasn't had big games this year but a bit of an issue with the home run ball has resulted in a 3.56 ERA in 60.2 frames. The White Sox are a bottom-10 offense against right-handers according to wOBA, which gives Cole a bit more appeal, but with so many other hurlers for us to choose from, he should be viewed more like a contrarian pay-up than anything else.
Max Scherzer's ($11,100) 3.72 ERA may not look like much but the former Cy Young Award winner has actually improved his walk, HR/9 and groundball rates this year, which has contributed to a 2.88 xFIP in 10 starts. The Mets are a bottom-10 offense in the last calendar month, making Scherzer someone prospective owners should focus on.
A washout at the hands of the Marlins shouldn't entirely take DFS players off Jacob deGrom ($10,500) who has tallied a 31 percent strikeout rate in 52 innings this year. Meanwhile, the Nationals have struck out more than a quarter of the time against right-handed pitching.
Rich Hill ($10,200) showed the entire DFS-playing world what he is capable of in his last outing against the Reds when he struck out 10 batters over six scoreless innings. The Rays hold a whopping 30 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this year, making Hill someone who needs to be considered in all formats.
Jon Gray ($9,200) will always be a GPP option due to his strikeout prowess but his proclivity for allowing homers and walks makes him a risky play against the Pirates, despite the fact that they have logged a .299 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Few pitchers have surprised more than Martin Perez ($8,700) in 2019. The 28-year-old has improved his strikeout rate by 10 percent from last season while also drastically reducing his home runs allowed to post a 2.89 ERA in 10 games (seven starts). The Angels don't strike out much but still hold a bottom-5 wOBA against left-handed hurlers.
Max Fried ($8,500) has used a big groundball rate and pinpoint control to log a 2.86 ERA in 50.1 innings this year. This could lead to an efficient outing against the Giants, who have logged just a .265 wOBA against lefty pitchers.
Nothing Jose Urena ($6,200) does on the mound can be considered exciting but he's able to limit walks and throw grounders. This is more than enough to give him a shot against the Tigers, who hold the second-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Key Values
Luke Voit ($5,300) can be part of a parade of Yankees used against Dan Straily, who has allowed 10 homers in his 30.2 innings this year.
Ivan Nova has yielded a .600 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters in 24 innings. This is an open invitation for a guy like Michael Brantley ($5,200), who has notched a .265 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Aaron Sanchez has thrown the ball reasonably well this season but an elevated walk rate has resulted in a 4.43 xFIP against lefty hitters. Mitch Moreland ($4,900) has been quietly mashing right-handed pitching in 2019, as evidenced by the .390 ISO he has tallied in 118 at-bats.
Jorge Polanco ($4,700) will take his robust .430 wOBA against righty hurlers into a matchup against Matt Harvey, who has allowed a .545 slugging percentage against his opposite hand in 19 innings.
Cole Hamels has thrown the ball well in 2019 but it will be difficult to go past Rhys Hoskins ($4,100) in his hitter-friendly home ballpark due to the .225 ISO he has notched against left-handed pitchers.
Nick Markakis ($4,100) makes for a nice value play against Jeff Samardzija due to the .393 wOBA he has logged against right-handed pitchers. Samardzija has thrown the ball well at home but still may be looked at as someone to exploit, as left-handers are slugging .500 against him this year.
Hanser Alberto ($3,600) can be used as an anchor in lineups thanks to the .455 wOBA he has logged against lefty pitching in 43 at-bats. CC Sabathia's 2.97 ERA is more than a little misleading, as he has allowed nine homers while posting mediocre walk and strikeout rates in 36.1 frames.
Stacks
Astros against Ivan Nova (White Sox)
Michael Brantley (OF - $5,200) Aledmys Diaz (1B/2B - $4,500) Robinson Chirinos (C - $4,400)
Most Astros hitters will cost a pretty penny Wednesday, so I've added some cheaper options who have seen success against right-handed pitching. While Nova has been hit hardest by left-handed batters, he has still allowed a .516 slugging percentage to righties in 23.1 innings.
Yankees against Dan Straily (Orioles)
Luke Voit (1B - $5,300) Gio Urshela (3B - $4,300) Clint Frazier (OF - $4,300)
Both sides of the platoon have gotten to Dan Straily but he has simply been trounced by righty hitters, as evidenced by the .732(!) slugging percentage he has allowed in 15 innings.
Orioles against CC Sabathia (Yankees)
Hanser Alberto (2B/3B - $3,600) Trey Mancini (1B/OF - $5,100) Pedro Severino (C- $3,600)
Our GPP stack will try to capitalize on the 5.47 xFIP Sabathia has logged this year. Severino should always be given a look as a cheap option against southpaws, as he has tallied a .370 wOBA against them in 27 at-bats.
