This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Typically, we see pitching prices gradually decline without huge clusters of players around a single price point. Wednesday is an exception, as eight pitchers are priced above $9,000, five of which are between $9,200 and $9,600. That will make for interesting builds, particularly with the need to pay down at either the SP2 spot or to identify cheaper stacks.
Pitchers
Boston is typically not a matchup I want to touch, but Shane McClanahan ($10,000) has been so good he at least has to be mentioned. He owns an impeccable 31.1 K-BB% and 2.19 SIERA. The downside is his price point, which puts a lot of pressure on him to put together a very good performance against a lineup that presents a high degree of difficulty.
Of the remaining elite pitchers, Cristian Javier ($9,300) and Luis Severino ($9,200) stand out. Javier presents some risk due to a high walk rate relative to other high-end pitchers. On the other hand, he has maintained a 34.1 percent strikeout rate, joining only two other players on the slate to surpass 30 percent. Besides Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the Angels aren't a lineup to be particularly concerned about. Meanwhile, Severino has settled into a nice – if unspectacular – cash game play. He's posted at least 14.5 DK points in each of his last 10 starts. While that floor would be a disappointing outcome, it wouldn't ruin your night in cash games. He takes on a Reds team that strikes out at the fifth-highest rate in the league while posting below-average marks in wOBA and wRC+.
Jon Gray ($7,700) appears to be the most clearly mispriced arm on Wednesday. He's been excellent across the last month and gets a matchup against the dreadful Athletics lineup. After his price climbed to $8,000 in each of his last three turns through the rotation, it's fallen a bit again and is a nice value.
Aaron Civale ($5,400) is the punt play. Like Gray, he's simply mispriced relative to the other arms available. He ranks 11th among the pitchers Wednesday in both SIERA (3.94) and strikeout rate (21.7%). He's by no means elite, but he seems somewhere between $1,000 and $1,500 too cheap.
Top Hitters
Mike Minor has cut down on the home runs he's served up of late, but he has still been taken yard in each of his seven starts this season. Aaron Judge ($6,300) is the obvious choice. However, for those who need to be more budget conscious, Josh Donaldson ($4,200) has begun to flash power again and is decent pivot for savings.
Manny Machado ($5,500) is at Coors Field, which is reason enough to roster him. However, Chad Kuhl has the third-lowest K-BB% (8.1) on the slate. That only enhances the case to build through Machado, though he's likely to be a chalk pick.
The Orioles are hot, but that's mostly due to their pitching. Even so, Justin Steele stands out in a negative way to his lack of control as he's handed out at least three walks in five of his last seven starts. Cedric Mullins ($4,600) is intriguing for a few reasons: he's relatively cheap for a player to build around, he's the Orioles' leadoff hitter, and unlike the mashers mentioned above he has both power and stolen base upside.
Value Hitters
Spenser Watkins is one of the more obvious arms to target as he has a 5.38 SIERA and 3.9 K-BB%. He's facing a Cubs lineup that is priced up fairly significantly. However, Rafael Ortega ($3,400) should be leading off and is a cheap way to get exposure to the matchup.
I keep looking at Lucas Giolito's peripherals and thinking he will get on track. However, that has yet to occur. Thankfully, we can get cheap exposure to the Guardians' lineup Wednesday with Nolan Jones ($2,000) still at minimum price despite the fact that he has a 1.206 OPS -- albeit in a minuscule 20 plate appearance sample since being promoted.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Reds (Mike Minor): DJ LeMahieu ($4,600), Anthony Rizzo ($5,200), Josh Donaldson ($4,400)
A Yankees stack is never cheap, and that's been particularly true of late as Aaron Judge ($6,300) has surpassed the $6,000 mark. That will make it difficult to build around him and the team as a whole, but they are in a really strong spot to produce against Minor. Minor's home run problems were already alluded to, but he has allowed 2.8 HR/9 this season and has a 4.55 SIERA -- among the highest in the player pool Wednesday. In builds with cheaper pitchers, Judge and Giancarlo Stanton would add to this list as elite options.
Cubs vs. Orioles (Spenser Watkins): Rafael Ortega ($3,400), Ian Happ ($4,300), Seiya Suzuki ($4,500)
The Cubs offer at least some degree of savings and they have the matchup that perhaps stands out the most based on Watkins' skill profile highlighted above. Ortega is a great value as one of the cheaper leadoff hitters in the player pool and both Suzuki and Happ have wOBAs in the range of .350 and hit in the top four of the order. This group offers a path to rostering two elite pitchers.
Padres at Rockies (Chad Kuhl): Ha-Seong Kim ($3,200), Manny Machado ($5,500), Luke Voit ($3,800)
After a hot start to the season, Kuhl has come crashing back to earth quickly by allowing four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Coors Field is a pretty easy place to identify as a desirable place to search for offense, but unlike most cases there is a straightforward build at a relatively low cost. Kim has served as the leadoff hitter with Jurickson Profar out, Voit is regularly the team's cleanup hitter, and Machado has a .529 slugging percentage for the season.
