This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's four-game main slate features a pitcher in the $9,000 range, as well as one who isn't typically associated with postseason play, giving us some interesting things to think about. On the hitting side, we can find at least one bat that is priced way down despite being on a fantastic run in the playoffs.
Pitching
Zack Greinke, HOU vs. TB ($7,500): The Rays may be up 3-0 in this series, but it hasn't been for lack of trying on the part of Houston starting pitchers, who have allowed just four earned runs over 19 innings. I still see the Rays as a team to attack from a DFS perspective, as they finished the year with the second-highest strikeout rate in the league (27 percent) and a bottom-5 RAA against the fastball. Greinke hasn't performed well in the postseason to this point but said recently that his struggles aren't due to arm issues that he dealt with to close the campaign, which should give prospective owners confidence that he can still be the pitcher who finished the year with a 25 percent strikeout rate.
Julio Urias, LAD at ATL ($7,800): The fact that Urias has yet to start a game in the postseason may give DFS players pause about his upcoming workload, but the left-hander threw 68 pitches in his October 8 appearance against the Padres, which should allay fears that this will be some sort of bullpen game. It's hard to find good matchups when dealing with elite offenses, but I'm riding with Urias due to the 9.7 RAA he kept with his fastball during the regular season, which ranked as the 6th-highest mark in the league among hurlers who threw at least 50 innings.
Top Hitters
Mookie Betts, LAD at ATL ($5,700): We start at the top against Kyle Wright, who finished the regular season with a 5.21 ERA and a 14 percent walk rate in 38 innings. Wright threw the ball well in his only postseason start but has never had success at this level before, as evidenced by his 6.22 career ERA in 63.2 frames. Enter Betts, who has logged a solid .302/.406/.500 slash line in the playoffs and tortured right-handed pitching with a .354 ISO this year.
Randy Arozarena, TB at HOU ($4,500): The sample size may be on the smaller side, but it's impossible not to take notice of what Arozarena is doing during the postseason. The rookie has logged an incredible .462/.512/.897(!) slash line in 39 at-bats. Greinke showed some cracks against same-handed hitters during the regular season, allowing a .527 slugging percentage in 31.2 innings.
Best Values
Carlos Correa, HOU vs. TB ($4,200): I left Tyler Glasnow off of my recommendation list above, as I don't want to pay a premium for a pitcher who allowed a .455 slugging percentage against righty hitters against a team stacked with powerful right-handed bats. Correa has slugged .900 in his 30 at-bats this postseason while striking out just 13 percent of the time, which could negate Glasnow's best weapon.
Austin Riley, ATL vs. LAD ($3,700): It's been a bit of a struggle for Riley in the playoffs, but he should always be on the radar as a value play against left-handed pitching thanks to the .244 ISO he logged against southpaws this year. Urias has been dominant out of the bullpen during the postseason but finished the 2020 regular season with a 5.00 xFIP against right-handed hitters.
Stacks to Consider
Astros against Tyler Glasnow: George Springer ($4,700) Carlos Correa ($4,200) Michael Brantley ($3,300)
It may seem risky to stack up against a pitcher who can look as dominant as Glasnow, but all three of these hitters have had phenomenal postseasons at the dish to this point. We should be jumping at the opportunity to get Brantley at this price, as he has set the league on fire with a .632 slugging percentage in 38 at-bats.
Dodgers against Kyle Wright: Mookie Betts ($5,700) Cody Bellinger ($4,900) A.J. Pollock ($4,400)
Wright is the worst pitcher taking the bump on Wednesday by any objective metric, so it makes sense that we would look to attack him with a strong Dodger lineup. While we don't have a cheap option here, it still feels like value to get a powerful hitter like Bellinger under $5,000 for this matchup.
