This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's four-game main slate features hurlers with sparkling ERAs, but we can find what appears to be a soft underbelly on one or two of them if we turn to advanced metrics. This leads us to what may be an unassuming A's stack, including a catcher with sneaky power.
Pitching
Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SD ($9,600): No one will ever accuse the Padres of being an easy day at the office, but I am prepared to eat chalk upfront on a small slate. Kershaw is coming off a fantastic opening-round performance against the Brewers, in which he struck out a whopping 13 batters over eight scoreless innings. While we can't quite expect that kind of outing here, Kershaw ended the regular season with just a 2.16 ERA to go along with a 28 percent strikeout rate, so prospective owners should be confident that the former Cy Young Award winner will put up points in any given matchup.
Ian Anderson, ATL vs. MIA ($8,200): Anderson had a fantastic rookie season by any reasonable metric one can consider. He kept a tidy 1.95 ERA In six starts, struck out 41 batters in 32.1 frames, and logged a wOBA below .260 over that span. The Marlins well outperformed expectations in 2020 but were still held to a bottom-5 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also struck out against orthodox hurlers at a 25 percent clip.
Top Hitters
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. MIA ($5,000): Freeman hasn't quite lived up to his 2020 regular season in the playoffs yet, but we should always look to play the 31-year-old against right-handed pitching thanks to the .360 ISO and .499 wOBA he logged against his opposite hand in 161 at-bats. Pablo Lopez didn't allow much against either side of the platoon this year but struck out just 15 percent of the left-handed batters he faced, which contributed to a 4.46 xFIP. It should also be noted that he kept a 4.91 ERA away from Marlins' Park.
George Springer, HOU vs. OAK ($4,800): Sample sizes are very small in the young postseason, but it's hard to ignore what Springer has done with his time in the bubble, as he has logged a .778 slugging percentage in 18 at-bats. Jesus Luzardo was stung by opposing hitters on the road in 2020, allowing a .636 slugging percentage in 17.2 innings.
Best Values
Clint Frazier, NYY vs. TB ($4,200): It was generally accepted that Frazier would yield to Brett Gardner against righty pitching, but the 26-year-old was in the lineup against Tyler Glasnow on Tuesday, perhaps due to the .245 ISO and .391 wOBA he logged against right-handed hurlers during the regular season. Charlie Morton has always lived and died with his curveball, but the veteran logged a negative RAA with the pitch this year. This could make him someone to target, as the Yankee lineup will become far more dangerous if Morton is unable to locate his best offering.
Sean Murphy, OAK at HOU ($3,700): Jose Urquidy's first postseason start looked a lot like his outings during the regular season, as he allowed just one run in 4.1 frames despite keeping an astronomically high xFIP (6.31). Murphy may be the hitter to cash in on Urquidy's shaky peripherals, as he logged a .232 ISO in 82 at-bats against righties during the regular season. We should also note that, despite keeping runs off the board, Urquidy did yield a .500 slugging percentage to same-handed hitters in 12.1 frames.
Stacks to Consider
Athletics against Jose Urquidy: Matt Olson ($4,600) Sean Murphy ($3,700) Khris Davis ($3,400)
There may not be a weak link among the pitchers taking the bump Wednesday, but Urquidy should at least give A's hitters comfortable at-bats due to his low strikeout rate. This should do wonders for a feast-or-famine hitter like Davis, who has come alive in the postseason with three home runs in just 15 at-bats.
Dodgers against Zach Davies: Cody Bellinger ($5,100) Max Muncy ($4,900) Gavin Lux ($4,100)
Davies is another pitcher whose peripherals during the regular season revealed a bit more than his standard run prevention, as he kept a 4.71 xFIP against lefty hitters in 34.1 frames. The Dodgers feature at least two bats that can do tremendous damage from the left side, while we can take the opportunity to save a bit of money by sliding Lux into our lineups.
