This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a heavy day of quality pitchers on Tuesday's slate, which gives us the chance to be very particular about the reason we are choosing to roster certain pitchers. It's a bit more complicated on the hitter side, where we may have to rely on lineups (Nationals-Pirates for example) that typically we wouldn't look to for much offense.
Pitchers
There are a number of elite pitchers to choose from, but Carlos Rodon ($10,400) is my favorite. After a slight downturn in early June, Rodon has turned in three consecutive performances with more than 30 DK points. Tuesday, he gets to face a Tigers lineup that is abysmal by just about any metric used to measure a team's offensive capabilities.
Robbie Ray ($9,500) and Sean Manaea ($9,300) are priced down a tier from the elite options, but both are capable of returning a useful performance. Manaea is worth more consideration in cash contests, as he is generally a safe bet for between 16 to 22 DK points. He could produce more toward the top of that range thanks to a matchup against an Arizona team that strikes out at a 24 percent clip. Ray has been a more inconsistent performer in the first few months of the season, but he spiked a 34.8 DK point performance on June 17 against the Angels. Despite the Orioles' offensive outburst Monday against George Kirby, they strike out at an inflated rate and check in as a well-below average lineup as measured by wOBA and wRC+.
Milwaukee isn't necessarily a lineup to target with pitching, but Shane Baz ($7,600) stands out as a value option. Even while being limited to roughly 75 to 80 pitches in his last two starts, Baz has racked up seven and six strikeouts respectively, leading to 25.7 and 16.9 DK points. It may not be the outing to expect a ceiling outcome, but with Baz's strikeout upside it's always possible.
The punt play of the day is Braxton Garrett ($5,700). He's strictly a tournament play, as he has worked fewer than five innings in three of his four starts this season. He'll also have to take on a tough St. Louis lineup. However, Garrett has also flashed strikeout upside given his price point, delivering over 15 DK points in two of his four appearances this season. That's more than enough to return value at his cost.
Top Hitters
The White lineup isn't exactly humming right now, but they have a strong opportunity to get on track Tuesday against projected starter Chase Silseth. In his big-league debut, Silseth surrendered a 48.1 percent hit rate and hit a 5.51 xERA as measured by Statcast. Tim Anderson ($5,800) is a primary driver of production as the leadoff hitter and is a nice target as a result.
The Dodgers likely burned a lot of DFS players Monday, but I'm ready to dive back in. Kyle Freeland has the second-lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher taking the mound Monday, and surrendering a lot of contact typically isn't the best path to success when pitching at Coors Field. I like Will Smith ($5,700) as a building block hitter Tuesday as a result.
Value Hitters
Luis Garcia ($3,200) has shown some significant skills growth in his third stint in the majors. He's posted a 113.4 max exit velocity, indicative of the level of raw power he possesses. Garcia doesn't lift the ball enough to be an elite power hitter yet, but he is locked into the fifth spot in the Nationals' order. He'll take on Jose Quintana and a Pirates' bullpen that has been particularly shaky of late.
We can attack both sides of the Pirates-Nationals matchup, as Patrick Corbin has coughed up an 11.1 percent barrel rate and 1.6 HR/9. Jack Suwinski ($2,800) has a lot of flaws in his profile — namely an inability to make consistent contact — but he has displayed significant power (89th percentile barrel rate, 86th percentile max exit velocity).
Yandy Diaz ($3,600) has been the primary leadoff hitter for the Rays, and that position in the lineup became more intriguing since the return of Wander Franco. Brandon Woodruff is obviously not typically a pitcher to target, but he struggled early this season and is making his first start since coming off the injured list. The Rays could be a sneaky team to build a cheap/value stack.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers at Kansas City (Jon Heasley): Marcus Semien ($5,000), Corey Seager ($5,600), Adolis Garcia ($5,400)
The Rangers are facing a nice stretch of matchups early in their series against the Royals, and Heasley is an easy target Tuesday thanks to the combination of a 1.5 HR/9 and 12.2 BB%. Beyond Heasley, the Royals' bullpen has a 4.71 ERA on the season – third highest in the league – so the Rangers should put up runs regardless of exactly who is on the mound.
Dodgers at Rockies (Kyle Freeland): Trea Turner ($6,100), Freddie Freeman ($5,900), Will Smith ($5,700)
The Dodgers let us down Monday, but that shouldn't dissuade us from turning to them again Tuesday. Freeland owns a 4.71 SIERA — fourth-highest on the slate — and allows a ton of contact. That's a bad combination in Coors Field against one of the top lineups in the league. It's also possible that the roster rate could be depressed a bit due to the Dodgers' inflated salary and the fact that they were shut out on Monday.
Red Sox at Blue Jays (Ross Stripling): Rob Refsnyder ($2,800), Rafael Devers ($6,100), J.D. Martinez ($5,600)
Vegas is expecting a lot of runs in this game, as it has the highest total of any game not at Coors Field for the evening. Michael Wacha is due a lot of regression and this could be the game for that, but I'd prefer the Boston side up against Stripling. Stripling has given up more quality of contact than Wacha and the Red also figure to offer a bit of salary relief with Refsnyder projected to serve as the leadoff man. Neither Wacha nor Stripling particularly stand out as pitchers to target, so this is a bet on the Vegas game total.
