This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
In an unusual twist this season, we have the majority of Saturday's games kicking off at 7:05 pm EDT or later. That gives us a 13-game main slate and one that should be set up for plenty of offense. In addition to home parks that amplify offense such as Coors Field and Truist Park, there aren't many traditional aces or otherwise formidable matchups. Of the 25 confirmed starters, only one lists a strikeout rate above 30 percent and only six have a SIERA below 4.00.
Pitchers
The pitching pool is fairly top-heavy, meaning we should expect to pay up at the position. Aaron Nola ($11,000) has been more inconsistent and has a lower strikeout rate than we'd typically want from someone in his salary range, but it's hard to overlook his matchup against the Pirates. He's also shown some variance in his last few starts by posting 38.9 and 26.1 DK points in two of his last four outings, which also makes him better suited for tournaments than expected.
Bailey Ober ($10,300) is the next highest pitcher and a cash game option. He's consistently posted between 17 and 20 DK points from his last five appearances. We shouldn't count on more, but a matchup against Kansas City - a lineup that strikes out at an above-average clip without much pop to be concerned about - will certainly help.
James Paxton ($9,900) was rocked in his first outing out of the All-Star break, but his recent track record otherwise is quite solid. Most appealing is his matchup against the Giants, who rank 29th in the league against southpaws with a .295 wOBA. They also strike out at a 25.1 percent clip during the same split, which should help Paxton have a safe floor with upside for more.
Bryan Woo ($8,300) compares favorably to Ober from a results perspective. The duo offer different skillsets, but the gap in salary shouldn't be this significant. Though Arizona is cold, their offense remains significantly better than Kansas City's. The question then becomes if the risk of a poor matchup is outweighed by the $2,000 in savings.
The lower tiers of the pitching pool are incredibly poor Saturday, leaving Mike Clevinger ($7,000) as the primary cheap play. That's a pretty uncomfortable position to be in, as he'll be taking the mound for the first time since Jun. 14 without having completed a rehab assignment. A matchup against the Guardians could be what salvages Clevinger's day, but I certainly wouldn't be putting much faith in using him.
Top Hitters
Julio Rodriguez ($5,200) is red-hot and in an ideal position to keep that going Saturday against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has pitched in seven big-league games and given up multiple homers in three of them with at least one on six occasions.
From one young pitcher with homer problems to another, we'll target Quinn Priester in Pittsburgh. He's had a limited big-league sample but has served up multiple long balls in each of his starts. We have to be careful with salary based on wanting to pay up at pitcher, making Bryson Stott ($4,100) a nice target.
Value Bats
Alex Kirilloff ($2,700) has shifted to third in the Twins order in his last nine games and has posted double-digit DK points four times. In a matchup against Jordan Lyles, he's one of the more attractive values of the day.
I don't think many anticipated we'd be calling Mike Tauchman ($3,400) undervalued in late July, but here we are. He's locked in as the Cubs' leadoff hitter against righties and father time seems to have finally caught up with Adam Wainwright.
Stacks to Consider
Reds at Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan): Elly De La Cruz ($6,100), TJ Friedl ($4,300), Jake Fraley ($4,800)
After a hot start in the majors, Sheehan looks overmatched of late. That's not the way to head into a matchup against the Reds, who suddenly boast one of the deepest lineups in the league. Specifically, Sheehan has only recorded a 4.7 K-BB% while giving up 1.3 HR/9. There are more impressive and expensive ways to stack this lineup, but some sacrifices will have to be made to pay up for pitching. Another note is that Luke Weaver is on the opposite side of this game and has also been poor since early June. A Dodgers stack is certainly in play, as is a game stack.
Phillies at Pirates (Quinn Priester): Kyle Schwarber ($4,600), Nick Castellanos ($4,300), Bryson Stott ($4,100)
There are a number of potential secondary stacks to highlight, with the Cubs being another prime option. Ultimately, the Phillies are the selection because we can roster the top and middle of the lineup at a relatively low investment, which will be important for the reasons we've covered. Priester's big-league sample is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but he hasn't missed bats or limited hard contact. The Phillies lineup is solid enough to make him pay.
