This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The main slate is technically at 7:05 pm EDT, but the majority of games Saturday begin at 4:05. With the latter option also offering bigger contests and larger prize pools, we'll make that our focus. Even with a wider selection of games, it's not a particularly strong group of available arms - particularly at the top of the salary range. As for hitters, we saw plenty of runs between Atlanta and Cincinnati on Friday, and that once again stands out for offense.
Pitchers
James Paxton ($10,300) is the highest-valued pitcher, and rightfully so. He's the only player with a strikeout rate above 30 percent and also draws a favorable matchup against what has been a fairly woeful White Sox lineup. Paxton has also topped 20 DK points in six of his seven outings this season.
Merrill Kelly ($10,100) also deserves to be in the conversation. It may come as a surprise he's bumped his strikeout rate to 27.1 percent this season after living in the low 20s for his entire career. Kelly also offers a different scoring profile in comparison to Paxton, with the latter being steadier and the former providing more highs and lows. Kelly also faces the Giants, a markedly better lineup compared to the White Sox, though they do strike out at a 25 percent clip.
There are a few decent options in between, but it's hard to justify paying up for anyone in the upper and middle tiers of the pitching market when Max Scherzer ($8,900)'s salary is down relative to both his recent performance and long track record of success. He's exceeded 30 DK points in three of his last five appearances while also striking out 37 across his last 31 frames during that span. The Phillies are a relatively tough matchup, but Scherzer is an easily identifiable value.
The strong performances may run out quickly, but Osvaldo Bido ($7,400) has enjoyed a successful opening few starts to his big-league career. Most importantly, he's maintained a 28.9 percent strikeout rate and his 3.90 SIERA suggests he hasn't been totally overmatched. A matchup against the Marlins in the pitcher-friendly LoanDepot Park suggests Bido may keep his strong form for at least another appearance.
The case for Yonny Chirinos ($6,600) isn't based on skill, though he should offer a good chance to earn the win against the Royals. If he also pitches relatively effectively across five innings, he'd be a bargain at this salary.
Top Hitters
Elly De La Cruz ($5,700) does something absurd every time he takes the field. On Friday, he hit for the cycle and has averaged 13.9 DK points across the first 15 games of his career. He'll also have a hitter-friendly home park and draws a matchup against Jared Shuster, who lists a 0.6 K-BB% and 6.24 SIERA.
We can flip to the opposite side of the same matchup to Matt Olson ($5,900). He gets the benefit of Great American Ballpark and also can take advantage of Graham Ashcraft on the mound, who's only produced a 16.8 percent strikeout rate and is primed to give up a lot of contact.
Value Bats
Maikel Garcia ($3,100) is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak and has averaged 12.0 DK points over that stretch. That doesn't necessarily tell us he'll continue to produce to that level, but he can still help with power and speed.
Jake Bauers ($2,900) took over as the Yankee's leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching within the last week. He doesn't have a lot of production during that time, but manages enough extra bases when he gets hits. As a result, Bauers represents a nice high-variance value option.
Stacks to Target
Reds vs. Atlanta (Jared Shuster): Kevin Newman ($2,800), Matt McLain ($4,600), Elly De La Cruz
There's not much debate the Reds are the hottest team in baseball, a lot having to do with their batting order. That will also drive up the cost of the lineup, though having a lefty on the mound means Newman will be leading off at a reasonable salary. Relative to this production, McLain is also a nice value. We've discussed some of the other appealing factors for Reds' hitters, highlighted by the matchup against Shuster and the hitter-friendly park.
Rangers vs. Yankees (Luis Severino): Marcus Semien ($6,100), Corey Seager ($6,300), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,100)
The focus on Great American Ballpark has shifted some of the attention away from the potential fireworks at Yankee Stadium. Severino has served up a whopping 2.4 HR/9 across six starts and the Rangers obviously boast the lineup to take advantage. It's an appealing stack for those reasons, but there's no way to get around the expense of rostering nearly any combination of Texas bats. That will require spending down at pitcher, though there are at least some decent options to do so.
