This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's nine-game main slate is thin at the extremes, but prospective owners should be able to find a couple of quality arms in the mid-range. On the offensive side, we see a few hurlers whose downfall has been heavily forecasted by advanced metrics.
Pitching Overview
Shane Bieber's ($11,700) 31 percent strikeout rate and ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him a viable option against just about any team but the Angels hold the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league against righty pitching (20 percent), which makes him a bit less attractive at this price.
The D-Backs have done the majority of their damage on the road in 2019, as we can see by the Top-10 wOBA and ISO the team has logged away from Chase Field. Jacob deGrom ($11,200) has maintained an identical strikeout rate to Bieber while also featuring elite walk and home run rates, which has resulted in a 2.76 ERA.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,200) has been lights out at home this year, registering a 2.83 ERA in 101.2 frames. This is only made sweeter by the fact that the Pirates have logged the lowest wOBA in the league against southpaws.
When it comes to doing well in a familiar setting few hurlers are more appealing than Kyle Hendricks ($8,800), who has notched a 1.77 ERA in 81.1 frames at home. The Padres have logged a bottom-10 wOBA against righties this year to go along with a strikeout rate greater than 26 percent, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
Jordan Lyles ($8,200) is far from a perfect pitcher, but the 28-year-old seems to have figured something out of late, as evidenced by the 2.67 ERA he has tallied in 33.2 innings since the beginning of August. This should make him popular in his matchup against the Marlins, who have kept the lowest wOBA and ISO in the league against righty hurlers.
Trevor Williams ($6,300) just may be showing signs of coming out of his season-long funk, as he hasn't registered less than 16.7 DraftKings points in any of his last three starts. The Giants have been a fairly solid team on the road in 2019 but hold the third-lowest wOBA against righties in general, making Williams an intriguing punt as one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate.
Key Values
Jeff McNeil ($4,800) has excelled against right-handed pitching this year, notching a .216 ISO and a .386 wOBA in 328 at-bats. Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly has logged an xFIP over 5.00 against righties to go along with the 46 percent hard contact rate he has surrendered in 69 frames.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,800) has been quietly mashing against righty hitters this season, as we can see from the .245 ISO and .402 wOBA he has logged in 351 at-bats. Cal Quantrill has allowed a .483 slugging percentage against lefty batters, but if his 5.91 xFIP is anything to go by, it appears the worst is yet to come.
J.D. Martinez ($4,700) has produced downright unbelievable numbers against his opposite hand this year, tallying a .504 ISO and .544 wOBA in 129 at-bats. This would make him worth a look against any pitcher, but we can really sink our teeth into the matchup against James Paxton, who has allowed 20 homers to righties in less than 100 innings.
Mike Yastrzemski ($4,500) stands head and shoulders above the rest of the Giants' offense when it comes to right-handed pitching thanks to the .267 ISO he has logged in 240 at-bats. This knowledge will come in handy for those not willing to buy into a Williams resurgence, as he has kept a .553 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters overall this year.
Mike Fiers' recent poor performances shouldn't be enough to make DFS players jump off the train entirely, but it's worth noting that he has kept a 4.87 xFIP against left-handed hitters this season. This could mean an opportunity for Michael Brantley ($4,200), who has notched a .391 wOBA against righties in 379 at-bats.
Stacks
Cubs against Cal Quantrill (Padres)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $4,800) Ben Zobrist (2B/OF - $3,700) Kyle Schwarber (OF - $5,200)
Quantrill's troubles against lefty hitters are borne out by traditional and advanced metrics, which allows us to save some money by rostering a hitter like Zobrist. While he hasn't had the best season overall, Zobrist has done good work since returning to the team after resolving a personal matter, notching a .402 wOBA in 16 at-bats.
Mets against Merrill Kelly (D-Backs)
Jeff McNeil (2B/OF - $4,800) Robinson Cano (2B - $3,900) Michael Conforto (OF - $4,500)
Kelly had a nice start against the Padres in his last outing but will face a Mets offense that has logged a bottom-10 strikeout rate against righties this year, which should allow the power of this stack to take center stage.
