This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's nine-game main slate features a few mediocre pitchers among the highest-priced assets, which may have prospective owners focusing more on the mid-range. From an offensive perspective, we see plenty of struggling hurlers in hitter-friendly ballparks to take a run at.
Pitching Overview
Trevor Bauer's ($11,700) 2019 season has taken something of a turn for the worse, as high walk and home run rates have contributed to a 4.12 ERA in 272.2 innings. The Padres hold a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching but it may be tough to trust Bauer at this price.
The Tigers have been one of the weakest offensive teams in the league for most of the season but there isn't anything about Wade Miley ($11,200) that should make prospective owners comfortable paying an elite price, as mediocre strikeout and walk rates have resulted in a 4.44 xFIP in 141.2 innings.
The Rays present a similarly good matchup for Marco Gonzales ($10,600). While he doesn't share the same issue with walks and homers as our previous two hurlers, a strikeout rate of just 18 percent isn't quite what we want to see from a five-figure asset on a large slate.
Kyle Gibson ($10,100) has been stung to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 16 innings this month but may find joy against the White Sox due to the success he's had with his slider, which rates as a top-10 pitch according to RAA. The South Siders are a bottom-half team against the slider and hold a 26 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Zac Gallen ($9,300) has struggled with the free pass this year but a strong strikeout rate and an ability to keep the ball in the yard has led to a 2.58 ERA in nine starts. He will take on a Rockies team that has kept a .286 wOBA and a 27 percent strikeout rate on the road.
Ivan Nova's ($8,300) price has been raised by more than $2,500 after his complete-game shutout against the Astros. While his overall numbers remain mediocre, he has allowed just one run in 22 innings this month, which could make him worth looking at, even against a tough Twins offense.
Joe Ross ($6,900) hasn't had the most productive season with the big club overall but has allowed just one run in 18 innings during the month of August. This makes him someone to take a look at against the Pirates, despite some relatively strong numbers against right-handed pitching.
Key Values
Chi Chi Gonzalez has had a miserable time on the mound in 2019, posting a 6.10 ERA in 87 innings at Triple-A before logging a 6.57 ERA with the big club in 24.2 frames. Meanwhile, Eduardo Escobar ($4,900) has notched a .236 ISO against righty pitchers in 331 at-bats.
Eric Lauer has looked lost away from spacious Petco Park, as evidenced by the 6.20 ERA he has kept in 53.2 innings on the road. Eugenio Suarez ($4,600) has done his best work against southpaws in 2019, as we can see from the .281 ISO and .392 wOBA he has logged in 96 at-bats.
Matt Adams ($4,200) doesn't get much respect in DFS circles, despite the .268 ISO he has logged in 254 at-bats. This should come in handy against Trevor Williams, who has allowed a .549 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters.
Anthony Santander ($4,100) may be a bit of an undiscovered gem in the Orioles lineup, as he boasts a strong K:BB ratio and a .215 ISO against righty pitchers in 163 at-bats. Jorge Lopez is a pitcher who simply hasn't found it this year, as he has tallied a 6.51 ERA in 30 games (11 starts).
Travis d'Arnaud ($3,600) has been a sneaky strong power option against left-handed pitching, logging a .282 ISO in 110 at-bats. This makes for a nice matchup against Gonzales, who holds a 4.83 xFIP against right-handed hitters.
Stacks
Reds against Eric Lauer (Padres)
Eugenio Suarez (3B - $4,600) Phillip Ervin (OF- $3,800) Aristides Aquino (OF- $5,000)
We all know how Aquino has set the league on fire since being called up but Ervin is the sneaky play here, having logged a stunning .536 wOBA in 47 at-bats against southpaws. Ervin should have a clear path to at-bats for at least as long as Jesse Winker remains sidelined with a back injury.
Nationals Against Trevor Williams (Pirates)
Matt Adams (1B - $4,200) Asdrubal Cabrera (3B -$3,700) Juan Soto (OF - $5,200)
I have lined up three lefties here in order to try to get the best of Williams but those who are so inclined can fit righties into a stack as well, as the 27-year-old has allowed a .467 slugging percentage to same-handed hitters.
