This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a nine-game slate to work with Monday and it's setting up to be one of the trickier days to predict as roster moves are likely to roll in throughout the day with the trade deadline upon us. There are a few aces to work with at the top of the price points, and we can be safely assured that both will be taking the mound with no trades in the works. We have a couple good offensive environments to focus on as well, highlighted by Coors Field and Truist Park in Atlanta.
Pitchers
We have Tyler Glasnow ($10,500) and Corbin Burnes ($10,200) as the two top-priced pitchers. Each is viable, with respective matchups against the Yankees and Nationals. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Yankees are the better matchup as measured by both K% and wOBA. Having Aaron Judge back makes the New York lineup more dangerous, but that doesn't change the fact that the Nationals strike out at the second-lowest rate in the league. Glasnow has also worked at least six innings in each of his last three starts, something he had accomplished only once in his first eight starts of the campaign.
Alex Cobb ($8,000) is a nice tournament option a few tiers down. He has been volatile of late but has managed 28.5 and 27.9 DK point performances in his last five starts, with another at 17.9. Arizona is a pretty tough matchup across the board, but otherwise, Cobb is a nice value option.
We have two punt options that simply seem mispriced. The first is Nick Pivetta ($6,600). He's worked in an interesting role lately, serving primarily as a bulk reliever. In that sense, there's some risk because he'll serve as a traditional starter Monday. On the other hand, he's too good an option to pass up at Seattle, as he's compiled a 33:6 K:BB across his last 21 innings pitched. In addition, the Mariners strike out at the second-highest rate in the league.
The final punt option is Seth Lugo ($6,600). His price is depressed due to his start taking place at Coors Field, but the Rockies traded away both C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk on Sunday, watering down an already poor lineup. Lugo is a tournament-only option but is intriguing because most won't start him in Colorado.
Top Hitters
With plenty of options to pay down at pitcher, we can pay up plenty for top hitters. Noah Syndergaard served up 2.0 HR/9 as a member of the Dodgers and is set to make his Guardians debut in a tough spot against the Astros. Any prominent member of the lineup is a good option, but Yordan Alvarez ($5,900) is the best of them.
Speaking of paying up, Fernando Tatis ($6,400) is at Coors Field with lefty Austin Gomber on the mound. Tatis has a .298 ISO and .424 wOBA against southpaws this season, and Gomber has the undesirable combination of a low strikeout rate and high homer rate.
Value Bats
The Angels retooled their lineup Sunday in a trade with the Rockies, but it likely won't affect the leadoff spot. That has belonged to Luis Rengifo ($3,300) for the last week. A matchup against Charlie Morton is not notably positive, but the likely offensive environment and Rengifo's projected lineup spot are enough to get him into lineups.
The Rockies' aforementioned trade opens playing time in the lineup, and Michael Toglia ($2,900) projects to hit in the middle of the lineup while taking over for C.J. Cron at first base. At Coors Field, it's worth rostering his potential power production.
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians (Noah Syndergaard): Jose Altuve ($5,600), Jeremy Pena ($4,300), Kyle Tucker ($5,700)
Syndergaard isn't the best pitcher to stack against because he still has a low walk rate, even if the rest of his skills have crumbled. There's a chance that if he gives up a lot of home runs, they could all be solo shots and it's difficult to pinpoint the exact players that will go deep in any given game. However, Houston's lineup is getting healthier and has shown some ability to put up explosive performances in the last week. It's an expensive stack, but I'll bet on the Astros being able to take advantage of Synderagaard's low strikeout rate (15.4%) and extreme homer problem.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin): Christian Yelich ($5,300), William Contreras ($4,500), Carlos Santana ($3,600)
The Brewers have a poor overall offense, but the top of the lineup is capable of putting together some runs at a relatively cheap price. Jake Irvin – in contrast to Syndergaard – has everything we look for when stacking against a pitcher, highlighted by a 9.8 percent walk rate paired with a 1.6 HR/9. Without many strikeouts mixed in, there should be some offense in Washington on Monday night.
