This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We are getting down to the nitty-gritty with Monday's four-game main slate, which features the championship series from both leagues. As the postseason continues, it will be tougher to find an edge from what's left, but we can use advanced stats as well as recent trends in order to fill out our rosters.
Pitching
Max Fried, ATL at LAD ($7,600): It's hard to identify a weakness in the Dodgers' lineup, but Fried is arguably the best pitcher on the docket, making him incredibly hard to pass up for this price. The left-hander has kept a solid 3.27 ERA in his two starts in the playoffs and allowed a hard-hit rate of just 23 percent during the regular season. Prospective owners should have no concern that Fried will have trouble at neutral ballparks, as he logged a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 innings on the road.
Lance McCullers, HOU at TB ($7,300): There's no doubt that the Rays are a talented offensive team, but the bottom-5 RAA they kept against the fastball during the regular season sticks out like a sore thumb on a tough slate like this. McCullers was hit hard in his only postseason appearance, but balls were absolutely flying out of Dodger Stadium during that series with the A's, whereas Petco Park has skewed more heavily towards pitching.
Top Hitters
Ronald Acuna, ATL at LAD ($5,000): Acuna destroyed right-handed pitchers during the regular season, notching a .361 ISO in 129 at-bats. While he hasn't been quite as explosive in the playoffs, he is still showing off his power stroke, as evidenced by the .227 ISO he has logged in 22 at-bats. Walker Buehler isn't generally thought of as a target, but the 26-year-old hasn't quite looked himself since returning from a blister issue at the end of September, as he hasn't thrown more than four innings in any of those three starts. While he's still striking batters out, walks have been a major issue for Buehler in the playoffs (six in eight frames).
George Springer, HOU at TB ($4,800): Springer was a beneficiary of playing that series in Dodger Stadium I referenced earlier, but he has still logged a .556 slugging percentage in 27 at-bats during the postseason. He also finished the regular campaign with a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching. It should also be noted that Charlie Morton finished the year with negative RAAs on the two pitches he throws most frequently (FB and CB), which could make him vulnerable to Springer specifically and the Astros lineup in general.
Best Values
Austin Meadows, TB vs. HOU ($4,000): Meadows hasn't had much joy so far in the postseason, but he has made his hits count, going 2-for-13 with two homers. The Rays don't have enough powerful lefties to build a stack against McCullers, but Meadows could be one to key in on, as he logged a .217 ISO against righties in the regular season. McCullers allowed a 45 percent hard contact rate to lefty hitters in his 11 regular-season outings.
A.J. Pollock, LAD vs. ATL ($3,900): Fried may be one of our featured pitchers, but it's hard to pass on Pollock when a lefty is on the mound thanks to the enormous .473 ISO he tallied against his opposite hand in 55 at-bats. Pollock has struggled during the postseason but is taking some good turns at the dish. He has struck out just 12 percent of the time and kept a 46 percent line-drive rate in 15 at-bats.
Stacks to Consider
Braves against Walker Buehler: Ronald Acuna ($5,000) Freddie Freeman ($4,900) Nick Markakis ($2,800)
Piling against Buehler could work as a differentiator if he has lost some control due to having a blister on his finger. Of note here is the fact that we get a hitter like Freeman at under $5,000. Freeman finished the regular season with a .640 slugging percentage. While he has yet to fire on all cylinders this postseason, he has still logged a .375 OBP, striking out just once in 24 plate appearances.
Astros against Charlie Morton: George Springer ($4,800) Kyle Tucker (3,800) Michael Brantley ($3,700)
The Astros threaten with power throughout their starting lineup, but what I love about this stack is how much might we get under $4,000. This is particularly true of Brantley, who has logged a .308 ISO in 26 at-bats during the postseason. Tucker is hitting a dry .400 in his 26 at-bats during the playoffs but ended the regular season with a .257 ISO against righty pitchers.
