This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
13 games await Friday's featured slate, which is loaded with top-end pitching names.
Pitching Breakdown
Gerrit Cole ($12,200) leads a trio of big names Friday against Kansas City. He's simply on fire right now, owning five straight games with double-digit Ks, averaging 38.1 DraftKings points (DKP) in that stretch. It's a soft matchup with the Royals owning just an 86 wRC+ against righties. He's a cash game anchor and only saving for bats keeps him out of GPP lineups as well given the immense upside.
Max Scherzer ($11,400) and Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) follow. Scherzer got his groove back a bit in his last start against Atlanta, conveniently Friday's opponent as well. But he hasn't lasted more than six innings since July 6. The risk is far too great in cash, but he's likely going to be glossed over by many given his form. Kershaw presents similarly against the Mets, as he's allowed three or more runs in four straight, averaging just 16.8 DKP in that span. There's more risk than usual with these two, but we know the reward is great. Low GPP exposure seems like the right answer.
The Angels' lineup/injury situation will determine Charlie Morton's ($10,600) appeal. Mike Trout ($5,100) seems likely to return to action, but he'll have even less support than usual with Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) out and Justin Upton ($3,600) unlikely. That depleted lineup suggests a stable floor for Morton, who's topped 20 DKP in six of his last 10. Luis Castillo ($10,200) rounds out the five-figure arms against a slumping Arizona offense that has scored just seven runs in their last five games, all losses. Castillo has topped 20 DKP in four straight and seven of 10, and looks like the best combination of stability, upsite and cost savings amongst the top arms.
The 9K tier includes Andrew Heaney ($9,900), Noah Syndergaard ($9,400) and Jake Odorizzi. Heaney gets a boost similar to his adversary in Morton due to the injuries that have riddled the Rays lineup. Sydergaard is a pass for me given form, price and a matchup against the Dodgers. I similarly don't love Odorizzi's matchup with Cleveland, but he's had success against the Indians this year, fanning 29 over 22.1 innings while allowing only four runs. Ignoring him completely seems like a mistake.
If looking for savings, Sandy Alcantara ($8,100) leads the way against the Giants. He's coming off of a 41.7 DKP complete game against Kansas City and has reached double-digit points in seven straight and eight of 10. The Giants .295 wOBA and 82 wRC+ won't scare many off. Masahiro Tanaka ($7,500) merits some consideration against a Blue Jays side that fans 25.0 percent of the time against righties and comes with high win probability with the Yankees (-210) favorites. His counterpart, Anthony Kay ($6,800) sets up as a GPP lottery ticket. He allowed seven base runners and only two runs in his first start, suggesting trouble is lurking. But he also fanned eight over 5.2 innings. The matchup against the Yankees is obviously scary, but the savings paired with the K potential could have him return 2.5x value.
Key Chalk/Value
All eyes, per usual, will drift to Coors Field where the Padres' Joey Lucchesi ($7,300) faces off with the Rockies' Jeff Hoffman ($5,000). We all know the drill by now, a lefty against the Rockies means buy as much as you can afford, starting with Nolan Arenado ($5,400) and supplemented by Ian Desmond ($4,300). There's unfortunately little value in the Padres' lineup, as bats have been inflatted tremendously, led by Wil Myers' ($5,300) $1,200 price jump from yesterday. Even bottom-tier options like Nick Martini ($4,100) saw an $800 price increase, making it difficult to get top shares here and still pay for pitching.
Astros' bats figure to be equally targeted and similarly too pricey to buy much of against the Royals' Danny Duffy ($6,000). Jose Altuve ($5,000) is a near automatic play against southpaws, as is Alex Bregman ($5,500), owning a .463 and .436 wOBA, respectively. You may be able to squeeze a little value from the catching position here, as both Martin Maldonado ($3,600) and Robinson Chirinos ($4,300) have both faired well against lefties.
I don't feel comfortable fully stacking Nationals' bats against Mike Soroka, but he's allowed five homers in his last two starts, three coming against Washington last week. Juan Soto ($5,200) has gotten him twice while collecting five hits in nine at bats against him, while Trea Turner ($5,100) and Adam Eaton ($4,100) have also had success in limited matchups.
Thankfully, there appear to be a few value spots to target, especially for GPPers who aren't afraid to target perceived bad offenses. We begin in Detroit, where the Tigers send Jordan Zimmermann ($4,700) to oppose the Orioles' Aaron Brooks ($4,300). Brooks has a 5.55 road xFIP, allowing a .381 wOBA and .930 OPS to lefties in the process. The likes of Victor Reyes ($4,300), Christin Stewart ($3,900) and Harold Castro ($3,600) offer salary cap relief at worst, and low owned upside at best. Zimmermann is similarly bad against lefties, allowing a .459 wOBA and 1.106 OPS at home. Baltimore's Jonathan Villar ($4,400), Anthony Santander ($4,000) and Dwight Smith ($3,700) fit well as a result.
Additional spots to look for bats include Seattle with Yusei Kikuchi ($5,400) facing off with the White Sox Dylan Covey ($4,000) and Oakland bats in Texas against Brock Burke ($5,200)
Stacks
Reds vs. Mike Leake (Diamondbacks)
Aristides Aquino (OF - $5,200), Eugenio Suarez (1B - $5,200), Brian O'Grady (OF - $2,800)
The length of the chalk above shows how deep the offensive options are Friday. As such, I'm trying to find a few offenses that will be glanced over in favor of those above, and offer a bit more of a value stack. Leake has allowed a homer in consecutive starts and 39 runs in his last nine starts. The inclusion of O'Grady, who has a .394 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and .294 ISO in limited at bats against righties allows this to be affordable and to take the Reds' top two available run producers.
Cardinals vs. Adrian Houser (Brewers)
Matt Carpenter (3B - $4,000), Kolten Wong (2B - $3,900), Dexter Fowler (OF - $3,900)
Houser is allowing a .362 wOBA and .870 OPS to lefties as opposed to a .266 wOBA and .614 OPS to righties. Carpenter isn't really awakening late in the year, but he does have double-digit point outings in each of his last three starts. Fowler has six hits in his last four games, and his spot atop the lineup allows exposure to the Cardinals' top hitters without paying the higher prices. Wong profiles identically, and, while not as hot as Fowler, he's another lefty bat in a plus matchup hitting in front of Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600) Marcell Ozuna ($4,400) and Paul DeJong ($4,200).
