This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A 14-game slate awaits Friday evening, where there's no shortage of pitching to pay for.
Pitching Breakdown
Shane Bieber ($11,800) leads a whopping six arms priced in double-figures, facing off against the Rays. It's a middling matchup, as Tampa fans only 22.7 percent of the time while posting a .320 wOBA against. Bieber's 10-game floor has been 12.2 9 DraftKings points (DKP), and he's topped 20 points eight times. Great cash consistency, but the matchup seemingly makes the ceiling lower than usual.
Aaron Nola ($11,200) follows against a division foe in the Mets, which lends itself to familiarity. He's fanned 22 Mets over 17.2 innings across three starts, allowing seven runs and 11 hits. With 20.2 DKP or more in eight of 10, he looks like a decent play at a slightly lower cost to Bieber.
Dinelson Lamet ($10,700) and Madison Bumgarner ($10,200) are set to square off. It's all about the strikeouts for Lamet, as he's currently fanning 30.2 percent of opposing batters and 11.7 per nine. He's yet to face the Giants, whom only fan only 22.6 percent of the time, seemingly capping the upside, but the .302 wOBA and 82 wRC+ don't scare me away. Bumgarner isn't in a much better spot to rack up Ks against the Padres' lineup that fans 24.4 percent of the time against southpaws. Their .330 wOBA ranks 10th, and they've touched Bumgarner up for four long balls and 11 runs across 20 innings to date. Bumgarner's been equally as consistent of late as the other arms in this tier, but the matchup doesn't set up as well for either arm here as their opponent's name suggests.
Trevor Bauer ($10,400) and Wade Miley ($10,000) round out the five-digit options. Bauer has alternated great starts with complete duds, and if that continues, he's due for a fine showing against the Cardinals, but that form is far better suited for GPPs. I personally have a hard time paying this number for Miley, and he has limited GPP upside due to a lack of Ks. Toronto fans just 23.4 percent against lefties, but ranks 24th with a .309 wOBA. The price and appeal is largely the Astros, and in turn Miley's, high win probability, with the team being (-200) favorites. Miley is a fine cash savings play.
Anibal Sanchez ($8,800) will garner a lot of eyes as a second arm, or even a first for GPPers looking to save against the Marlins. He's coming off of a one-hitter, the Nats are heavy favorites (-240), and he's posted a 3.18 ERA across 11.1 innings against them, fanning eight. Seven walks allowed is a little concerning, but the Marlins never scare anyone away. I like Max Fried ($7,500) to bounce back from a sub par outing last time out in a matchup against the White Sox. Chicago fans 24.0 percent of the time against lefties while posting a tiny .155 ISO against them. Prior to his last start, Fried had been worth double-digit points in six straight starts. Atlanta checks in as (-190) favorites to boot. Arms really fall off after Fried as well, making this as low as I'll comfortably go, but I'm not doing my job if I don't point out his adversary, Ivan Nova ($7,300). He's allowed only five runs over his last 48.0 innings thrown dating back to July 22. The Braves' are potent and stackable given their top heavy lineup, but Nova's run is what GPP wins are made from.
Key Value/Chalk
Obviously, we start in Coors Field with Colorado's Antonio Senzatela ($4,000) facing Pittsburgh's Dario Agrazal ($4,400); the two lowest priced arms on the slate. Unfortunately, there's little value to be found on either side, with nine bats priced north of 5k combined. There's rarely a bad option on the Rockies side, but the .404 wOBA to lefties allowed by Senzatela looks promising for Pirates' bats. Josh Bell ($5,700) leads that charge, while Colin Moran ($4,600) and Adam Frazier ($4,500) do present as values. The game has a 14.5 total, three-plus runs more than anywhere else, suggesting no play is a bad play.
Outside of Colorado, there likely isn't a more chalky play than Twins' bats against Edwin Jackson ($5,000). The .395 wOBA he is allowed to lefties is great, except he's allowing a .477 wOBA to righties. Nine Twin bats check in above the first priced Tiger bat, showing how lopsided this game can be, yet there's a run total of only 9.5. Value options (cheap buy-ins) include Jonathan Schoop ($4,300), Eddie Rosario ($4,600) and Jorge Polanco ($4,800).
Houston will be trendy against Trent Thornton ($5,900), who has allowed six homers in his last four starts (19.2 innings). He's been slightly more vulnerable in the power department to lefties, making Yordan Alvarez ($5,600) and Michael Brantley ($4,800) the preferred plays.
There should be value available in Kansas City, where the Royals' Eric Skoglund ($6,500) squares off with the Orioles' Dylan Bundy ($8,100). The O's Hanser Alberto ($4,000) has a team-high .409 wOBA and 159 wRC+ against lefties but only a .136 ISO. Safe floor, low ceiling, which can be offset by Renato Nunez ($4,300) and/or Trey Mancini ($4,400), whom both have a .259 ISO in this spot. Bundy has actually faired well of late, allowing two runs or fewer in five of seven, but the game has an 11 run total, which attracts me to both sides. Hunter Dozier ($4,400) and Jorge Soler ($4,200) are the team's leaders in wOBA and ISO, and make great sense here.
Stacks
Yankees vs. Brett Anderson (Athletics)
Aaron Judge (OF - $5,300), DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B - $5,300), Gio Urshela (3B - $4,400)
Anderson may not have clearly attackable splits, but he's allowed multiple runs in nine straight starts, lasting seven innings only once. The Yankees rank third offensively against lefties, led by Judge's .476 wOBA, 203 wRC+ and .346 ISO. LeMahieu isn't far off at .475/202/.290, and Urshela offers a little savings in a usually high-priced lineup, owning a .362/126/.230 line against lefties.
Red Sox vs. Jose Suarez (Angels)
J.D. Martinez (OF - $5,300), Xander Bogaerts (SS - $5,300), Christian Vazquez (C - $4,000)
Suarez is going to be incredibly popular to pick on here, as he has a 6.67 ERA while allowing 2.5 HR/9 and surrendering a .429 wOBA and 1.037 OPS to righties, so we're not limited in options. Martinez has surged over the second half and dominates lefties to the tune of a .527 wOBA, 234 wRC+ and .466 ISO. Bogaerts is no slouch at .357/119/.267, but Vazquez is actually better in this situation, comes at a nonprime position and some cost savings, making this more affordable than usual. He's currently sporting a .370/127/.270 line against southpaws.
Athletics vs. CC Sabathia (Yankees)
Matt Chapman (3B - $4,700), Mark Canha (1B/OF - $5,300), Marcus Semien (SS - $5,100)
This stack is largely about Sabathia, who has allowed a long ball in six straight, 11 in total. He's allowing a .400 wOBA and .974 OPS to righties since the All-Star Break, so we'll target the A's top three opposite handed bats here. Chapman comes at a slight discount and may be overlooked given his DTD tag, though he's expected to return. He carries a .385 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and .336 ISO into Friday against lefties. Canha goes 351/122/.242, while Semien has a .383/143/.231 line in August against lefties.
