This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
14 games are featured in Friday's main slate, with weather possibly being a concern in Kansas City.
Pitching Overview
Big name lefties are the story atop the pitching docket, with Blake Snell ($11,400 at Cleveland), Chris Sale ($11,200 at Houston) and Robbie Ray ($10,900 at San Francisco) leading the way. Snell gets an underperforming Indians side that carries just a .298 wOBA and .148 ISO against lefties, fanning 25.4 percent of the time. He's fanned nine or more in three straight, averaging 29.6 DKP in the process. Sale faces the league's best offense against southpaws, however, as the Astros' boast a .382 wOBA and .245 ISO. Sale has fanned 10 or more in four straight and five of six, including in his last start against Houston, where he was worth "only" 20 DKP. Ray looks like he's in a favorable spot against a Giants offense that ranks 29th with a .66 wRC+, adding a paltry .114 ISO and an attackable 24.5 percent K rate, but Ray is incredibly inefficient with his pitches. He's made it through six innings just twice, none in his last five starts. His last outing required 87 pitches to get through four innings against San Francisco, and he may be a choice to fade given the matchup's popularity.
Three righties follow and wrap up a sizable group of five-digit arms, led by red-hot Shane Bieber ($10,400), who is coming off of a massive 56.3 DraftKings-point (DKP) showing and has posted at least 21.3 DKP in five starts. It's not an ideal matchup against an eighth-ranked Rays offense against righties, but it's easy to imagine this game developing into a pitcher's duel. An ice-cold Jose Berrios ($10,200) follows. His form is certainly concerning (nine runs in his last 10.1 innings), but the matchup is ideal against a White Sox side that fans 26.6 percent of the time while carrying only a .309 wOBA and .165 ISO. Noah Syndergaard ($10,100) has an even better matchup on paper against a Detroit offense that has a weak 68 wRC+ and .135 ISO. He's been inconsistent to date, and hasn't been seeking strikeouts of late, collecting 14 in his last three outings, spanning 21 innings. It looks like Detroit won't do much damage when they put it in play, giving Thor innings upside if he isn't missing bats.
Walker Buehler ($9,900) is in his own territory as the price falls off sharply after his spot. He's averaging 23.2 DKP in his last four, and the Pirates have only a .146 ISO and .299 wOBA against righties. He's an option if you're paying down.
The bottom half of the pitching slate isn't as easy to navigate. Miami's Pablo Lopez ($7,500) caught my eye against the Nationals. If we ignore the 10-run outing Lopez had against the Mets, he's averaged 21.2 DKP in his other five outings, not allowing a long ball. Washington's sum has been far worse than its individual pieces, and they have just an 80 wRC+ and .149 ISO while fanning 25.2 percent of the time. Minnesota hits well and doesnt whiff enough for me to trust Reynaldo Lopez ($7,100); he's always got GPP upside to pair with a combustibility that will lose you slates single-handedly. Toronto's Trent Thornton ($7,600) may merit consideration. He's posted 16.5 DKP in four of his last five and faces a Padres offense that has only a .293 wOBA while striking out 27.1 percent of the time.
Key Value/Chalk
All eyes for offense have to start with the Rockies, which they do normally when at home, but moreso over this weekend series against Baltimore. The O's staff is brutal, ranking last with a 5.13 xFIP and 2.19 HR/9. John Means ($6,500) has been worse than his 2.68 ERA suggests, carrying a 5.07 xFIP and unsustainable .234 BABIP and 80.3 percent LOB percentage. Pricing may prohibit a stack, so I've intentionally omitted them below, but buying as many Rockies as you can afford is the strategy Friday. Nolan Arenado ($5,600) is a near must-own with his .444 ISO and 208 wRC+ against lefties, while some secondary pieces like Ryan McMahon ($4,800), Ian Desmond ($4,600) and Chris Iannetta ($4,100) have had success against lefties and can help get additional exposures.
It's very difficult to recommend any Astros against Sale, and none come with promising long-term BvP lines. As such, they make for great dart throws in GPP formats. Boston bats against Wade Miley ($7,700) are certainly an option. Xander Bogaerts ($4,700) and Christian Vazquez ($3,800) are enticing, with both owning a .466 and 192 wRC+ or higher against lefties. Steve Pearce ($3,000) is a great GPP wildcard. He's gone for 42 DKP total in his last three games with J.D. Martinez ($5,100, back) sidelined. He's 7-of-21 in his career against Miley with two homers, and there's nothing to lose if he's in the lineup Friday, as worst case scenario is zero points, and an extra Rockie bat.
Atlanta-St. Louis and its 9.5 run total is a personal favorite game stack. The Braves come with Mike Foltynewicz ($7,800), who is coming off of his best start of the year; one that saw him earn just 13.7 DKP. He's allowed 13 runs and seven homers in his last three outings, spanning 16.2 innings. Marcell Ozuna ($4,800) just missed taking Folty deep twice in their last meeting, while Paul DeJong ($4,700) comes with a stable .386 wOBA. On the other side, the Braves' offense is firing on all cylinders and gets a vulnerable Miles Mikolas ($7,300), who's allowing a .393 wOBA to lefties. Fire up Freddie Freeman ($5,200) at will, while Nick Markakis ($3,900) is a cheaper buy and comes with a .386 wOBA against righties.
One final chalky look is the Yankees vs. Kansas City's Jakob Junis ($6,200). He's allowed five homers over his last 16.2 innings, and the combo of Gary Sanchez ($5,400) and Gleyber Torres ($5,100) is simply raking. Sanchez owns a .425 wOBA, 169 wRC+ and .406 ISO against righties, while Torres goes .399/151/.295. But a second reminder...check the weather before locks.
Stand-alone value lies with Pete Alonso ($5,300), as the Mets are injury-depleted and don't hit lefties terrifically overall. Alonso has a .449 wOBA and .488 ISO against lefties, with the only negative being how deep, or not, we anticipate Gregory Soto ($6,300) going into the contest.
Stacks
Brewers vs. Jerad Eickhoff (Phillies)
Christian Yelich (OF - $5,600), Mike Moustakas (2B/3B - $4,800), Yasmani Grandal (C - $4,500)
Eickhoff has allowed nine runs and five homers in his last two starts, and is allowing a .356 wOBA, 6.03 xFIP and 2.13 H/9 to lefties, so I'm loading up on opposite-handed bats. Yelich's back is a moderate concern, but Thursday's off day figures to have him back in the lineup, and he's the cream of the crop of non-Rockie bats with his .512 wOBA and .462 ISO. Moustakas brings a .370 wOBA and .295 ISO to the table, while Grandal's .208 ISO and .352 wOBA work well at a secondary position, and he's enjoying usage near the top of the lineup.
Athletics vs. Wade LeBlanc (Mariners)
Stephen Piscotty (OF - $3,700), Matt Chapman (3B - $4,300), Chad Pinder (2B/OF - $3,800)
LeBlanc is getting torched by right-handed bats, allowing a .450 wOBA and 1.088 OPS, which puts a bulk of the A's lineup in play here, especially with so many options priced under 4k. Chapman is your anchor, owning a .382 wOBA and .386 ISO. Piscotty sports a .431 wOBA and 176 wRC+, while Pinder has power potential on the cheap, owning a .260 ISO and having gone deep in two of his last three. Khris Davis ($4,200) is a great option if he proves healthy, which seems unlikely but still possible. Josh Phegley ($3,900) is also an option behind the dish.
Orioles vs. Jeff Hoffman (Rockies)
Trey Mancini (1B/OF - $5,400), Dwight Smith (OF - $4,900), Stevie Wilkerson (OF - $4,400)
It may be easy to overlook the other side of this likely high-scoring game as the Rockies bats present so well, and we're getting very few pricing favors here. But gambling on the Orioles as the lower owned side could work out for GPPs. Wilkerson leads the O's with a 149 wRC+ and .282 ISO, and while I hate the price for Mancini, his .349 wOBA suggests a stable floor. Smith puts the ball in play, fanning only 16.4 percent of the time, important against Hoffman, who has fanned 50 across 40.2 innings combined in Triple-A and the big leagues, but allowed 34 runs in the process. Colorado also needed 4.2 innings from their bullpen Thursday, so Hoffman could have a longer leash than he should or fewer fresh options to replace him.
