This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A heat wave throughout most of the country will open up run scoring in several parks on Friday night. Expect plenty of high over/under games to skew toward the over, as 80-90 degree temperatures in the midwest and northeast, along with high humidity in many places, will add carry to the ball.
Stacking a game or two is fine, but mini-stacks and combinations might be necessary to take down tournaments on this slate with so many games lining up to be slugfests.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Jacob deGrom, NYM at MIA ($13,600) -- deGrom is one of three aces on the road near the top of the price list Friday, and there is very little that separates the trio outside of the marginal differences in cost. With a career high strikeout rate (11.2 K/9, 31.4% K%), deGrom continues to pitch at a level that should make him a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award...if he remains in the National League all season. The Marlins continue to be one of the league's worst offenses, with a team wRC+ of 86 that ranks 24th in MLB along with the league's 10th-highest K% (23.7%). With the softest landing spot of the three aces, it makes sense that deGrom is carrying the highest price tag.
Trevor Bauer, CLE at OAK ($13,300) -- The A's are a better offense than most people realize, posting a 107 wRC+ against righties and carrying a strikeout rate that is in the middle of the pack (22.2% K%). Compared to weather conditions in many other locations Friday night, Bauer is in a cool, pitcher-friendly environment, and paired with the potential for a lower ownership rate in tourneys than deGrom and Gerrit Cole, could make Bauer the optimal SP1 for tournaments for those willing to spend up.
Gerrit Cole, HOU at TAM ($13,000) -- The Rays strike out at nearly the same clip (22.8%) as the A's, but the offense has been a tick below average this season with a 96 wRC+ vs. RHP. Cole has been human over his last six starts, pitching to a 3.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 45:16 K:BB (38.0 IP), and even without a double-digit strikeout game during that stretch, he's still managed to average 22.7 DraftKings points per game. The expectation here is that Cole will be the highest owned of the top-three arms.
Patrick Corbin, ARI vs. SF ($11,900) -- The early-season body of work was impressive, but if he's hovering around 90 mph with his fastball here on out, the occasional blow-ups are here to stay. During his first start in May, Corbin's fastball velocity dipped, and he's been unable to regain it over the last two months. After a blistering start to the season in April, he's leveled off with a 3.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last 10 starts, thanks to his slider-heavy approach. Oddly enough, he's given up at least four earned runs in each of his last four home starts, but the matchup Friday comes against a San Francisco club that has posted a 94 wRC+ against southpaws (22.6% K%) this season.
Rich Hill, LAD vs. COL ($7,700) -- The Rockies have been rubbish against righties this season, but are close to league average against lefties (95 wRC+, 22.1% K%). Hill's inconsistency and recurring battles with blisters make him as volatile as any pitcher on the board most nights, but the Dodgers are -160 favorites and the low over/under total (7.5) combine to make him an enticing tournament-only consideration, and I think there is an argument that can be made to use him as an SP1 along with one of the other cheap starters below to free up a lot of cash for bats.
Marcus Stroman, TOR vs. DET ($6,300) -- Stroman tossed five scoreless innings in his return from a lengthy DL stint against the Angels on Saturday. Like Hill, there is seemingly a very low chance that he'll be asked to pitch more than six innings. Fortunately, he draws one of the best matchups on the board with a Tigers club that is a bottom-five offense over the last 30 days (76 wRC+). He's a great SP2 for cash games, but the workload concerns paired with a potentially high ownership rate might be enough to look elsewhere in tournaments.
Marco Gonzales, SEA vs. KC ($7,800) -- Road starts against the Yankees and Red Sox did not turn out well for Gonzalez the last two times out. A return home to face the woeful Kansas City offense should get him back on track, as the Royals have the league's worst wRC+ over the last 30 days (58!). The Royals don't whiff a ton, so Gonzales' strikeout ceiling may be closer to six or seven even if he gets very deep into this start.
Joe Musgrove, PIT at SD ($7,600) -- Musgrove may have caught two of the hottest teams in the league at the exact wrong time with the D-backs and Reds recently knocking him around in PNC Park. Prior to those outings, he was shaping up to be a useful in-season pickup in shallow mixed leagues, and regularly undervalued arm for DFS purposes. The latter holds true again Friday with a road trip to Petco to face a Padres offense that continues to strike out often (24.4% K% L30 days, 5th in MLB).
Nick Pivetta, PHI vs. WAS ($9,500) -- The Nationals have a 69 wRC+ over the last 30 days, ranking 29th in MLB. There is still plenty of firepower in that offense, but if you're looking for a potentially very low-owned tournament play with the talent to put up double-digit strikeouts when everything is clicking, Pivetta is in play.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. NYM ($5,300) -- Alcantara's MLB debut comes against Jacob deGrom at the Mets, and while the price is very fair for a very talented prospect, he's only a consideration as an SP2 for big-field GPP players with several (8+) lineup combinations. The long-term upside is intriguing, but there is a ton of risk despite his raw talent, and the win probability is very low, despite the Mets' frequent struggle to win on days that deGrom starts.
Summary: Of the four most expensive arms, I like Bauer the most in tournaments from an ownership rate standpoint. deGrom appears to be slightly safer than Cole if the chalk doesn't bother you, and there is nothing about either matchup that scares me. I'm passing on Corbin tonight at that price. Of the cheaper arms, Hill and Musgrove, perhaps in tandem, are my preferred choices.
Catcher
Jorge Alfaro/Andrew Knapp, PHI vs WAS ($2,800/$3,200) -- The Phillies may go back to Knapp on Friday night after Alfaro started Wednesday and Thursday, but regardless of which catcher is behind the plate in tandem with Nick Pivetta, I'm interested in saving money at the position on this slate. Alfaro is the higher-upside play if he gets the call, but there are a few viable pivots available if your lineup comes together with a little bit of extra room under the cap. The concern with Alfaro continues to be a high strikeout rate, and surprisingly, he's homered just once in June (18 games, 60 at-bats), but with Erick Fedde starting for Washington in hot conditions at Citizens Bank Ballpark, the ball should be flying in Philly.
Alternatives: John Ryan Murphy, ARI vs. SF ($3,600), Elias Diaz, PIT at SD ($3,300)
First Base
Justin Smoak, TOR vs. DET ($3,600) -- Smoak vs. Kendrys Morales ($3,500) is a coin flip given the near-even price and near-even splits the two players have against lefties dating back to the start of last season. Smoak has been very quiet in June, with just one homers this month along with a .190/.310/.342 line and a 13:25 BB:K. As a result, he's more of a discounted tournament consideration that a viable cash-game play, but the upside goes beyond the matchup against a left-handed starter Friday, as the Tigers have one of the league's weaker bullpen.
Others to consider: Kendrys Morales, TOR vs. DET ($3,500), Yonder Alonso, CLE at OAK ($3,600)
Second Base
Whit Merrifield, KC at SEA ($3,900) -- If you're using Marco Gonzales as an SP2, look to the alternatives below. Most likely, I won't have enough lineup combos to use Gonzales, and Merrifield is on the short list of Royals bats I would consider on any given night, but my preference is to seek out his matchup against lefties, as he's hit .323/.367/.541 against southpaws since the start of last season. Admittedly, it's very tempting to simply use Gleyber Torres for $100 more in what figures to be a very high-scoring game in the Bronx (over/under 9.5) between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Alternatives: Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. BOS ($4,000), Josh Harrison, PIT at SD ($3,700), Devon Travis, TOR vs. DET ($3,400)
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD vs. COL ($3,900) -- Rockies lefty Tyler Anderson is not a bad pitcher. He might actually be a pretty good pitcher. Still, he's not good enough to steer me away from Turner at this price, and until Turner gets closer to $4,000, he'll be a consideration every time he's matched up against a left-handed starter, a split in which he is elite. Since sitting out a three-game series against the Braves earlier this month, Turner is hitting .275/.393/.490 with three homers over his last 15 games entering play Friday. Beware of potentially high ownership rates here.
Alternatives: Miguel Andujar, NYY vs. BOS ($3,900), Rafael Devers, BOS at NYY ($3,900), Kyle Seager, SEA vs. KC ($4,000)
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. CHW ($4,000) -- Andrus picked up his first multi-hit game since returning from the DL in the Rangers' series finale against the Padres on Wednesday. On a night were plenty of parks will be more conducive to big run totals, the Rangers-White Sox matchup in Arlington has the highest over/under run total (10.5) as of Friday morning. Even though White Sox starter Dylan Covey has made some significant adjustment from last season, he can still be picked on in instances like this one. Of the shortstops available on Friday's slate, Andrus' OPS split is the seventh-highest on the board (.798 vs. RHP) since the start of last season. If paying up for one of the elite options is possible, Manny Machado at home against the Angels is the preferred option over Francisco Lindor at Oakland, but it's very close, and Lindor's ownership rate might be considerably lower.
Alternatives: Andrelton Simmons, LAA at BAL ($3,800), Manny Machado, BAL vs. LAA ($5,000), Francisco Lindor, CLE at OAK ($5,300), Chris Taylor, LAD vs. COL ($3,500)
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. ATL ($3,700) -- Ozuna's quiet start to 2018 lasted nearly two months, but things have played out as many expected in June, as he's been red-hot to the tune of a .347/.388/.611 line with seven homers and 21 RBI over his last 25 games. The play against Braves starter Julio Teheran is typically to pick on him with left-handed bats, but Ozuna is more than capable of doing significant damage in this matchup. Game-time temperatures in St. Louis are forecasted to exceed 90 degrees, making Busch Stadium a more hitter-friendly environment than usual.
Avisail Garcia, CHW at TEX ($3,600) -- Yovani Gallardo is starting for the Rangers, which will prompt plenty of lineups to build around Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada, and for good reason. Garcia has homered twice in six starts since returning from the DL on June 22, and while his splits against same-handed pitching aren't off the charts good (.287/.338/.458 since the start of 2017), they're good enough at this price, in this matchup, in hitter-friendly conditions in Arlington on Friday night to turn him loose as a nice value play in the outfield.
Adam Jones, BAL vs. LAA ($3,700) -- Angels starter Felix Pena has been homer prone in very limited chances against big-league hitters over the last three seasons, allowing 12 long balls in 55 innings (40 appearances, two starts). He's also struggled with walks (25 in 55 IP), which could be particularly problematic in a hitter-friendly road environment like Camden Yards. For those who can't find room under the cap for Manny Machado, Jones offers up a cheaper path to get exposure to one of the best matchups of the night.
Alternatives to consider: Michael Conforto, NYM at MIA ($4,200), Jesse Winker, CIN vs. MIL ($3,600), Enrique Hernandez, LAD vs. COL ($3,500)
