This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
At least on Tuesdays and Fridays, I am hoping to adjust this piece in the weeks ahead.
This week, I attempted to be a bit clearer about the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitcher
Cash: Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. AZ ($9,800) -- With a price tag that is $4,200 less than Max Scherzer, the ownership rates in tournament might be high enough to steer away in GPPs. Throwing 45 pitches and making it through just one inning in the first start after hyperextending his pitching elbow makes him seem very risky as a cash-game call. Fortunately, the velocity readings from deGrom in that marathon inning against the Phillies on Sunday were right in line with his previous norms this season. The D-backs are tied with the Rangers for the worst team wRC+ split on the board Friday (78), and the absence of A.J. Pollock is another blow to the Arizona offense. Outside of Paul Goldschmidt (who has hit a ton on the road, at least) and David Peralta, there isn't much to fear in this matchup.
Also in play among the costly starters…
Max Scherzer, WAS vs. LAD ($14,000) -- The forecast calls for a lot of rain in D.C. tonight, so Scherzer's start may end up getting washed out.
Cheap 2nd SP Consideration: Drew Pomeranz, BOS vs. BAL ($7,000) -- The Red Sox are home, and among the biggest favorites on the board (-180), which of course gives Pomeranz a nice win probability. Moreover, he's facing an Orioles' offense that has been slightly below average against lefties this season (96 wRC+) despite a righty-heavy lineup. Pomeranz has a top-10 K% among the 30 starting pitchers on the board Friday, while the O's whiff enough to give Pomeranz the third-highest projected point total on DraftKings based on the RotoWire projections.
Tournaments Only: Ivan Nova, PIT vs. SD ($6,400) -- In this week's installment of Captain Obviously DFS observations, I would like to once again direct your attention to the Padres' 25.7% K% against right-handed pitching this season, along with their 83 wRC+. Nova's wavering ability to miss bats and susceptibility to big flies when he's in the zone too much always adds risk, but the Pirates are -135 favorites, the over/under sits at 7.5, and he's at home, so be prepared to take advantage of the situation if you need to save money in the second pitcher spot with a tournament lineup.
Also consider…
Nick Tropeano, LAA vs. TB ($6,800) -- He's cheap, pitches for a good team, is at home, and is favored against a Rays team that can get whiff-happy on a bad night.
Catcher
Mitch Garver, MIN vs. MIL ($3,000) -- The Brewers are starting lefty Brent Suter on Friday night, and while Suter might be the ideal swing man for a big-league pitching staff, it's a righty-lefty matchup for a bat-first catcher in a favorable spot. One important detail I keep in mind with using hitters against the Brewers is the status of Milwaukee's key relievers -- specifically, Josh Hader. The Brewers were off Thursday and Hader hasn't pitched since Monday night, so he'll be available for multiple innings if the situation arises. Nevertheless, Garver is one of my preferred tournament options behind the plate.
In cash scenarios, J.T. Realmuto ($4,000) is my top choice if the Braves stick with lefty Max Fried as their starter following Thursday's rainout.
First Base
Jose Abreu, CHW vs. TEX ($4,300) -- Abreu gets Matt Moore at home, and he's one of several first-base options set up for a potentially huge night Friday.
In Toronto, Justin Smoak ($3,700) and Kendrys Morales ($2,900) face Brett Anderson. Ownership rates will likely be higher than usual on both, but perhaps not off the charts bad since Joey Gallo ($4,000) is very affordable against Carson Fulmer on the other side of the White Sox-Rangers matchup.
Of the above options, Abreu and Smoak are the most cash-friendly plays of the group, but I'm content to use any of those four in tournaments as well.
Matt Olson's recent surge at the plate and matchup with Marco Estrada at $3,500 will likely garner plenty of interest as well, but like Gallo, Olson's swing-and-miss tendencies limit his utility exclusively to tournaments on a slate this large.
Second Base
Rougned Odor, TEX at CHW ($3,300) -- Unless the lineup position comes up higher than expected (he's hit seventh in every game he's played since returning from the DL), Odor is likely limited to tournaments. Carson Fulmer is nearly split-neutral, but with bad splits against lefties and righties, and the Rangers-White Sox matchup has all of the necessary ingredients to be the highest-scoring game of the night. A similarly priced, likely very low-owned tournament consideration is Zack Cozart with a righty-lefty matchup against Blake Snell at $3,400.
On the cash front, Brian Dozier at $4,200 leads the way Friday, as he gets the aforementioned righty-lefty matchup against Brewers swingman Brent Suter.
One pivot to think about in tournaments is Matt Carpenter at $3,400 against Jake Arrieta and the Phillies. Recent exit velocity trends are more encouraging than his numbers from the first half of April, which are at least temporarily quelling my concerns that he's playing through some sort of injury (back, shoulder?).
Third Base
Rafael Devers, BOS vs. BAL ($3,800) -- Josh Donaldson against Brett Anderson is the marquee cash-game/chalky matchup at the hot corner Friday. Devers' splits since the start of last season have been better against lefties than righties, but I'm nowhere near writing him off against righties despite his ongoing growing pains at the plate. In recent weeks, Devers has seen more time hitting in the bottom-third of the loaded Boston lineup, and if he's down in the No. 8 spot again, he may be limited to use in tournaments. In any case, I like this matchup for him, in a home game against a brutal Baltimore squad where the over/under sits at 10 on Friday night.
A cheap option to monitor is Martin Prado at $2,500, as the Braves *may* stick with lefty Max Fried for Friday's start after his scheduled spot turn against the Cubs on Thursday night was rained out.
Shortstop
Trevor Story, COL at SF ($4,100) -- At the first glance, there aren't many interesting cheap plays at shortstop, which could make it a simple case of having to pay a decent amount to address the position. Story gets a righty-lefty matchup with Derek Holland, and while it's on the road, his .295/.380/.658 line against lefties since the start of 2017 is the driving factor behind considering him, but Holland's struggles against righties make the setup even sweeter (16.7 K%, 10.6 BB%, 1.87 HR/9, .375 wOBA vs. RHH since the start of 2016). I'm comfortable using Story in cash games and tournaments on Friday's slate.
Didi Gregorius, NYY at KC ($4,000) -- In tournaments, the slumping Gregorius is an interesting play because his price is down, and the Yankees are still positioned to put five or more runs on the board against Jake Junis and the Royals on Friday night. To be clear, Gregorius has been very quiet in May (.125/.176/.167), but perhaps a trip to Oklahoma Joe's will get him back on the right track. More importantly, Junis' splits have shown him to be more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, in terms of allowing more homers, and striking hitters out at a lower clip (career 17.7% K%).
Outfield
Andrew McCutchen, SF vs. COL ($3,500) -- I like Kyle Freeland on the road in this matchup overall, but his price is high enough on DraftKings to keep me away unless I'm trying to make an extremely contrarian lineup. Since I am not doing that, I'm carefully considering McCutchen as a one-off play from the Giants' lineup against the Colorado lefty, thanks to Cutch's impressive splits against left-handed pitching (.301/.402/.607 line since the start of 2017 -- 1.008 OPS). Again, it would hardly be surprising to see Freeland deliver a quality start Friday night, but within that, McCutchen is the San Francisco bat most likely to propel the Giants' offense.
Jorge Soler, KC vs. NYY ($3,800) -- The price simply hasn't caught up to Soler's production (.314/.418/.518) and lineup placement yet, which makes him a very strong consideration, and a potential tournament option if you have some potentially low-owned pivots elsewhere in the lineup. CC Sabathia has pitched at a level much better than many have given him credit for over the last season-plus, but within that framework, he's been vulnerable against righties (sub-20 percent K%, 1.21 HR/9 since the start of 2016).
Jay Bruce, NYM vs. AZ ($3,300) -- In a similar vein to my persistence with Rougned Odor above, I'm not willing to accept Bruce as a player who should be priced this low with a lefty-righty matchup at home. The price will bring more interest to Bruce than the matchup itself -- Zack Godley isn't bad...he's just not good enough to avoid. At least against righties, the plate discipline hasn't changed since last season, and it's only a matter of time before he begins tapping to his 30-homer power again.
