Zach Eflin

Zach Eflin

30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
2024 Fantasy Outlook
The Rays never spend on free agency. Their last big buy prior to Eflin was a three-year deal with James Loney, so when the Rays gave Eflin a 3 year deal for $40M, it should have gotten more attention. The front office, and pitching coach Kyle Snyder, clearly saw they could get more from him, and indeed they did. They tweaked his repertoire to use more of his cutter, added a sweeper, and encouraged him to visit different parts of the strikezone allowing Eflinl to finish as the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2023. The 16 wins and 177.2 innings, and 186 strikeouts were career highs as he remained more durable than he had been in recent years with Philadelphia. 2023 was also the third straight season he kept his walk rate below five percent. The risk with Eflin is always his health, but the peripherals are as rock solid as his knee has been unstable in recent years. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#84
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the Rays in December of 2022. Traded to the Orioles in July of 2024.
Set to start Game 2
PBaltimore Orioles
October 1, 2024
Eflin will start Wednesday in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Royals, Danielle Allentuck of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The Orioles dropped the first game of the series against the Royals on Tuesday, losing 1-0. Eflin did not have his strongest outing in his final start of the regular season Wednesday, giving up three runs on four hits and five walks across 4.2 innings. With a week of rest under his belt, the 30-year old will look to rebound in order to force Game 3.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
87
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
90
How many pitches does Zach Eflin generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Zach Eflin generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-25%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .228 827 183 38 178 38 5 24
Since 2022vs Right .259 873 202 25 216 37 3 25
2024vs Left .225 334 74 16 71 14 0 11
2024vs Right .281 350 60 8 95 14 2 11
2023vs Left .210 343 80 13 69 14 3 9
2023vs Right .259 360 106 11 89 17 1 10
2022vs Left .277 150 29 9 38 10 2 4
2022vs Right .209 163 36 6 32 6 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-38%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-37%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-12%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-75%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.79 1.00 213.0 18 8 0 9.1 1.1 1.1
Since 2022Away 4.51 1.19 205.2 11 14 1 7.4 1.6 1.0
2024Home 2.66 1.08 67.2 5 3 0 7.6 0.8 1.3
2024Away 4.24 1.20 97.2 5 6 0 7.1 1.7 1.1
2023Home 3.30 1.04 103.2 11 4 0 10.4 1.2 1.0
2023Away 3.77 1.00 74.0 5 4 0 8.0 1.2 1.0
2022Home 1.73 0.74 41.2 2 1 0 8.4 1.3 1.1
2022Away 6.88 1.59 34.0 1 4 1 6.9 2.4 0.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.58
 
K/9
7.3
 
BB/9
1.3
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
91.9 mph
 
ERA
3.59
 
WHIP
1.15
 
BABIP
.302
 
GB/FB
1.24
 
Left On Base
74.7%
 
Exit Velocity
82.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2208 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.3%
 
Swinging Strike
10.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
It was a nice moment when Eflin, who'd endured more of the Phillies' playoff drought than most, recorded his first career save in the game which clinched the the team's first playoff berth since 2011, but the fact that he was pitching in relief in the first place is unfortunately what fantasy managers should be primarily concerned with. Knee issues limited Eflin to 18 starts in 2021, and they didn't go away in 2022. He finished with 13 starts and seven relief appearances. When healthy, he was the same unexciting but capable pitcher he's been for the past several seasons, as his 4.04 ERA and 20.8 K% were both near matches for the 4.12 ERA and 21.4 K% he managed from 2019 through 2021. His 4.8 BB% was excellent, as usual, but while many low-whiff, low-walk pitchers become durable back-end starters, Eflin's injuries mean he lacks that reliability. The Rays are betting on some untapped potential and gambling on his health, as they gave him the richest free agent contract in team history (three years, $40 million). He should open the year in the middle of the rotation. Eflin's sinker and cutter show some intriguing movement qualities and he excelled at limiting hard contact last season (96th percentile average exit velocity), so perhaps the Rays can extract a career year with the aid of a massive home park upgrade.
Eflin was more interesting than ever last offseason, as he'd just seen his K% jump by over 10 points to 28.6, helping him to a career-best 3.97 ERA, a number which could have been considerably better according to the ERA estimators. He was unable to repeat the feat in 2021, producing the unremarkable numbers we've seen from him throughout his career. He did show excellent control, with his 3.6 BB% leading all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, but his K% fell back to a below-average 22.4%. That added up to a 4.17 ERA, though the ERA estimators were again about half a run more optimistic. Eflin's standout control keeps him somewhat interesting heading into this season, but he now comes with injury concerns, as a patellar tendon issue kept him out for most of the second half and eventually required surgery. His availability for Opening Day is up in the air, though he's trended in the right direction early on in spring training and may not miss much time, if any, to open the season.
There weren't too many bright spots on the Phillies' pitching staff in 2020, but Eflin was certainly one of them. He trimmed his ERA for the third consecutive year, finishing with a 3.97 mark in 59 innings. His improvement in that category in 2019 wasn't backed by his underlying numbers, but it was this time, as his 3.39 FIP and 3.23 xFIP suggested that he actually deserved a far better ERA. The 26-year-old struck out just 17.6% of opposing batters in his first four big-league seasons, but he jumped all the way up to 28.6% in that category last season. He didn't sacrifice any control to get there, posting a strong walk rate (6.1%). He also recorded a career-high 47.4% groundball rate. Just how much of Eflin's short-season gains stick around in 2021 remains to be seen, but he could be developing into an entirely new tier of starter rather than the boring back-end option he'd settled in as before last season.
Eflin took a major step forward in 2018, going from looking unplayable to looking like a solid back-end starter. Despite cutting his ERA from 4.36 to 4.13 in 2019, he didn't exactly improve again in his age-25 season. He briefly lost his spot in the rotation as his underlying stats took a turn for the worse. His FIP rose by more than a run (from 3.80 to 4.85), while his strikeout rate fell from 22.5% to 18.3%. He did at least keep his walk rate low, posting a 6.8% mark for the second straight year, and he did improve in one area, posting a career-high 44.6% groundball rate, but that figure is still merely above-average. If Eflin can't improve his strikeout numbers next season, he still might be good enough to stick in the back of the Phillies' rotation, but he won't do much to excite fantasy owners, as low-strikeout starters whose ERAs are just good enough to be playable aren't hard to find.
Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance.
Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.
Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.
Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.
More Fantasy News
Squanders chance at 11th win
PBaltimore Orioles
September 26, 2024
Eflin came away with a no-decision in Wednesday's 9-7 win over the Yankees, giving up three runs on four hits and five walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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Quality start vs. Giants
PBaltimore Orioles
September 19, 2024
Eflin allowed two runs on six hits and a walk across six innings in a no-decision Thursday against San Francisco. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in tough-luck loss
PBaltimore Orioles
September 13, 2024
Eflin (10-9) took the loss Friday against the Tigers, allowing a run on five hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Allows two homers in loss
PBaltimore Orioles
September 7, 2024
Eflin (10-8) took the loss against the Rays on Saturday, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk with four strikeouts over 5.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in win
PBaltimore Orioles
September 1, 2024
Eflin (10-7) allowed one run on four hits and a walk over seven innings Sunday, striking out nine and earning a win over Colorado.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Houston, Atlanta, St. Louis in mix
PTampa Bay Rays
July 25, 2024
Houston, Atlanta and St. Louis are among the clubs expected to have strong trade interest in Eflin, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
The Rays are one of the few clubs with rotation depth from which they can trade, and it make senses that they'd entertain offers for Eflin given his salary will rise to $18 million in 2025. Eflin hasn't been as good this year as he was in 2023 when he finished sixth in the American League Cy Young voting, but he's still been servicable in 2024 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 87:13 K:BB over 110 innings covering 19 starts.
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