This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday saw MLB return from the All-Star break, but it was a light day of work. Friday is back to business as usual. There are 13 games on the slate for DraftKings' contests. It's time to get back in the swing of things. Time for my recommendations!
Pitching
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. LAA ($8,800): Morton has had a tough season, but over his last six starts he has a 2.56 ERA. Suddenly he's allowed a lot of home runs, but in his career he's allowed a mere 0.80 home runs per nine innings. The Angels have collapsed offensively, even with a couple All-Stars on the team, and they are now bottom five in runs scored.
Braxton Garrett, MIA at PIT ($7,400): Before the All-Star break Garrett pitched six shutout innings with 11 strikeouts. On the season, he has a 3.44 FIP. The Pirates are pretty much locked into being 28th in both runs scored and team OPS, making this a comfortable matchup to target.
Drew Rasmussen, TAM at KC ($7,200): Rasmussen is in his first season as a full-time starter, and through 15 starts he has a 3.22 ERA. The Royals, meanwhile, are 27th in runs scored, so Rasmussen should be able to handle them, and hopefully the Rays give him enough offensive support to get him the win.
Top Targets
Anthony Rizzo ($5,100), has picked up 22 home runs and six stolen bases. Like many lefties, he's better off facing a righty, as he has an .866 OPS in those matchups. Righty Tyler Wells does have a 3.38 ERA, but he also has a 4.06 FIP and has only struck out 6.22 batters per nine innings.
Hey, Rhys Hoskins ($4,800) is at home and facing a lefty, so get excited. Since 2020, Hoskins has an 1.001 OPS versus southpaws and a .905 OPS at home. Justin Steele isn't just a lefty, but a guy with a 5.86 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bats
Though he doesn't make much a ton of contact, Christian Walker ($3,500) causes damage when he does. He's slugged .460 and hit 22 home runs even though he's only hit .204. Patrick Corbin has a 5.84 ERA over the last two years and allows a ton of homers, so this matchup is right up Walker's alley.
The Athletics have a great matchup Friday with Spencer Howard on the mound for the Rangers. He has a 6.97 ERA, which is in line with his career 6.94 ERA. Unfortunately, the A's have a lousy lineup. However, Seth Brown ($2,800) does have 11 home runs and seven stolen bases, and the lefty has a .735 OPS over the last two seasons. That's not great, but it's enough with this matchup and this salary.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Mariners (Marco Gonzales): Jose Altuve ($5,200), Alex Bregman ($4,700), Jeremy Pena ($4,600)
There are pitcher who don't strike guys out, and then there's Gonzales. He's somehow only managed to whiff 4.75 batters per nine innings. Perhaps that speaks in part to why he has a 3.50 ERA, but a 5.00 FIP. In fact, he's had a FIP over 5.00 the last two seasons. You can have luck in any matchup, but you need more luck to handle a team like the Astros than, say, the Athletics.
Altuve has 17 home runs and eight stolen bases, and while it's a small sample size, he's crushed lefties. In those matchups he has an 1.069 OPS. Bregman has a .359 OBP, and in his career he has a .375 OBP. When you get on base, you can be driven in by your teammates. The rookie Pena has a .263 average with 13 home runs and six stolen bases. He also has an .829 OPS versus southpaws.
Brewers vs. Rockies (Antonio Senzatela): Christian Yelich ($4,900), Kolten Wong ($4,200), Rowdy Tellez ($3,900)
Sure, this game isn't at Coors, but what if I told you that Senzatela has a 5.20 ERA on the road since 2020? Or that he's coming off the IL for this start? Oh, and lefties have hit .295 against him over the last three years as well. Yeah, stacking three southpaws against Senzatela is good with me, even if they aren't in Denver.
Granted, Yelich seems unlikely to ever be the player he once was, particularly when it comes to power. However, hitting .251 with a .347 OBP is solid, and he has eight homers with 13 stolen bases. Wong has six home runs and 10 stolen bases in 70 games. Also, he's really struggled with lefties, but he has a .774 OPS against righties. The lefty Tellez has 18 home runs, and he also loves his new home ballpark. This is his first full season with the Brewers, and he has a .945 OPS at home.
Guardians at White Sox (Lucas Giolito): Jose Ramirez ($5,400), Andres Gimenez ($4,000), Franmil Reyes ($3,100)
Hopes that Giolito would turn his season around have dissipated at this point. He has a 4.69 ERA through 16 starts. At home, that ERA shoots up to 5.30. On top of that, righties have hit .315 against him this season, which is why I have two guys who can hit right handed in this stack.
Well, Ramirez has an 1.010 OPS against righties and an 1.020 OPS on the road, so maybe that's all you need to hear. I suppose I could also mention his 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. Gimenez has really emerged this season, as he's slashed .296/.357/.478. The shortstop also has 10 home runs and seven swiped bags. Since I wanted a righty, I'm going with Reyes. He has a career .482 slugging percentage, and over the last three weeks he's slugged .470.
