This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the end of the work week and the halfway point of July. Friday has 15 games on the schedule, but 13 that start at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Looking at that baker's dozen of matchups, here are my recommendations for your DFS lineup.
Pitching
Alek Manoah, TOR vs. KC ($9,000): Manoah is an elite pitcher with a 2.34 ERA and, as chronicled by Jeff Passan on ESPN, fashions himself as an innings-eating workhorse. The Royals are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, but frankly I didn't even need to look at that for this recommendation. Kansas City is missing several players who didn't get vaccinated. The lineup is stripped down to say the least.
Tyler Wells, BAL at TAM ($7,400): These are two bottom-10 offense, but the Rays are banged up a bit and are scrambling on the mound for this one after Shane Baz was shut down. Wells, on the other hand, has a 3.28 ERA in his first season as a starter. Yes, he doesn't strike anybody out, but the Rays lack the punch to take advantage of that.
Zach Plesac, CLE vs. DET ($7,200): Yes, Plesac is 2-7, but win-loss record is not entirely in the hands of the pitcher. He has a 3.99 ERA, and a 2.85 ERA at home, and there's a good chance his run support will suffice in this matchup. Detroit is last in runs scored and 29th in team OPS.
Top Targets
The fact Friday's game is at home for Jose Altuve ($5,400) and the Astros is huge. He has an 1.060 OPS at home. On top of that, Cole Irvin's 3.32 ERA is reliant on Oakland's ballpark. In road games he has a 5.27 ERA. Now, Altuve does have a leg contusion from an errant pitch, but that isn't too serious. With a lefty on the mound, if Altuve is out and you still want an Astro I'd probably go with Jeremy Pena ($4,800) as a replacement.
C.J. Cron ($5,400) and his .296 average are back. And so is his OPS over 1.000 at home since joining the Rockies, of course. Jose Quintana surprisingly has a 3.59 ERA, but a 4.41 ERA on the road. Plus, since 2020 he has allowed righties to hit .293 against him.
Bargain Bats
Though Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) has played for three different teams over the last three seasons, each time he's shown acumen against left-handed pitchers. In that time he has an .869 OPS versus southpaws. Meanwhile, the lefty Alex Wood has allowed righties to hit .288 against him in 2022.
The power of Coors Field also helps visiting players. Daniel Vogelbach ($3,400) truly cannot hit his fellow lefties, but since 2020 he has an .839 OPS against righties. German Marquez has spent his entire career with the Rockies, but he's been hurt by Coors more than ever. This season he has a 7.17 ERA at home and has allowed 2.5 home runs per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals vs. Reds (Hunter Greene): Nolan Arenado ($4,800), Tommy Edman ($3,300), Juan Yepez ($3,300)
It's the same story for Greene in his rookie year. He has a heavy-duty fastball, strikes out a lot of batter, and is getting absolutely lit up anyway. Greene has a 5.70 ERA and has allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings. He's actually faced lefties and righties almost equally, and righties have hit .262 against him with 13 homers in 187 at bats, so I have three guys who hit right handed here.
His overall numbers – including 18 home runs – are strong, but Arenado has been hot recently. Over the last three weeks he has an 1.010 OPS. Edman has seven home runs, but he's more of a speed guy. He's got 19 stolen bases after having 30 last season. As a rookie, Yepez isn't getting on base much, but he's still managed to slug .459 with 11 home runs. Plus, he has a .794 OPS against righties.
Braves at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Dansby Swanson ($5,600), Austin Riley ($5,500), Travis d'Arnaud ($4,700)
Well, Corbin has managed to drop from a 5.82 ERA last year to a 5.70 ERA and from allowing 1.94 home runs per nine innings to 1.43 homers per nine. So, um, there's that. I have three righties against the southpaw, given that since 2020 Corbin has allowed those hitters to tee off on him to the tune of a .308 average.
In addition to having 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases this year, Swanson has a .923 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Since remaking himself as a hitter in 2021, Riley has a .905 OPS with 58 home runs in 249 games. Oh, and he has an 1.098 OPS against lefties in 2022 as well. D'Arnaud can be slotted in as your catcher, and he's hit .262 and slugged .464. Also, yes, he has a .904 OPS against lefties.
Blue Jays vs. Royals (Zack Greinke): Teoscar Hernandez ($4,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,700), Matt Chapman ($3,700)
Is it too-cute-by-half to stack three Blue Jays and not include any of the "big names" in the lineup? Perhaps, but you can save some salary, get some quality hitting, and also take advantage of a worthwhile matchup against a team that is shorthanded. Greinke is 38 and has a 4.52 ERA. However, on the road he has a 7.46 ERA. The Royals can't just save him for home games, though, so the Jays get a shot at him this week.
Hernandez has 11 home runs and five stolen bases, and he's been quite good at home. This year he has a .910 OPS in Toronto. Gurriel is hitting .304, and over the last three weeks he has a .983 OPS. He also has an .830 OPS against righties since 220. Chapman isn't hitting for average at all, but at home he has an .812 OPS. Eleven of his 14 home runs have come at home as well.
