This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Welcome to July! MLB has 10 games Friday starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Here's hoping we can all get off on the right foot on the DFS front. To try and help make that happen, here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL at PIT ($10,600): Burnes has followed up winning the Cy Young with another strong campaign. He has a 2.41 ERA and has struck out 11.47 home runs per nine innings. Burnes now get the opportunity to face a Pirates team that is 28th in runs scored. The salary expenditure is well worth it Friday.
Cristian Javier, HOU vs. LAA ($9,200): Javier has pitched in the rotation and in the bullpen, posting a 2.76 FIP in the process. He also has an 1.95 ERA at home. The Angels are in the middle of the league in runs scored, but they have had struggles after the start to the campaign, so much so that Joe Maddon got fired.
Marco Gonzales, SEA vs. OAK ($7,400): Gonzales has a 3.31 ERA, even though he barely strikes anybody out. That may not be an issue against the Athletics, though. Oakland is last in team batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. Clearly the A's aren't threatening many pitchers.
Top Targets
Somehow, Trea Turner ($6,000) has slashed .305/.352/.487 with 11 home runs and 15 stolen bases and it feels like he's going under the radar. If that wasn't enough, he has an 1.061 OPS against lefties since 2020. The lefty Blake Snell has struggled since returning from injury, as he has a 5.60 ERA this year.
It took a bit to get going, but Kyle Tucker ($5,300) has picked it up nicely. He's got 14 stolen bases, his final total from last year, and he has 15 home runs as well. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen has allowed lefties to hit .268 against him this year, and he has a 6.14 road ERA as well.
Bargain Bats
He doesn't hit for average, but Christian Walker ($4,200) has power. He has 19 home runs this year and has slugged .465. Now he's at Coors Field, and he'll be facing Antonio Senzatela. The Rockies pitcher has allowed righties to hit .296 against him since 2020.
It's been a rough year for Adam Frazier ($2,400), but he is a career .275 hitter. Since 2020 he has a .708 OPS against righties, and the southpaw has been better at home in 2022. James Kaprielian has a 6.11 FIP, has allowed 1.90 home runs per nine innings, and has allowed lefties to hit .271 against him in his career. Frazier has the capability to handle this matchup.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees at Guardians (Aaron Civale): Giancarlo Stanton ($5,500), Anthony Rizzo ($5,000), DJ LeMahieu ($4,700)
It's been a brutal year for Civale, who has a 7.20 ERA. Since 2020, he's allowed righties to hit .288 against him, and this season lefties have hit .288 him for good measure. The Yankees are, of course, a top offense, so any chance you have to stack from the Bronx Bombers is usually worth it.
Stanton's average has dropped, but the power remains. He's slugged .524 this year with 19 home runs. Even over the last three weeks when he's hit .158, he's slugged .544 with seven homers. Rizzo has himself 21 home runs and six stolen bases. This year he has an .846 OPS against righties as well. LeMahieu often leads off, and with a .359 OBP that makes sense. Across the last 21 days he also has a .395 OBP.
Mets vs. Rangers (Glenn Otto): Pete Alonso ($5,600), Brandon Nimmo ($4,400), Jeff McNeil ($4,200)
Well, Otto's 5.31 ERA is better than his 9.26 ERA from last season, but it's still bad. Plus, after missing a couple weeks he returned to allow six runs in two innings against the Nationals. One New York-based stack is good. Two is even better, at least this Friday.
Alonso may not hit 53 home runs again, but he's hit 22 of them in 75 games and has slashed .280/.359/.560 to boot. Also, the righty excels against his fellow right handers, having put up a .962 OPS in those matchups in 2022. Nimmo doesn't bring a ton of power, but he's hit .285 and posted a .390 OBP over the last three seasons. There's been a bit more power recently as well, with a .522 slugging percentage in the last three weeks. McNeil has hit .323 this year and seems likely to hit over .300 for the fourth time in five seasons in his career. He also has an .888 OPS against righties this year.
White Sox at Giants (Alex Cobb): Andrew Vaughn ($4,000), Jose Abreu ($3,900), Yoan Moncada ($2,400)
In his first season as a Giant, Cobb has a 5.48 ERA in 10 starts. Over his last five starts his ERA is up to 6.66. The White Sox doesn't really have a lefty to use to target the righty Cobb, but this is a worthy stack anyway.
Vaughn has posted a .307/.360/.465 slash line in his second season. On top of that, he has a .959 OPS on the road. Speaking of excelling on the road, Abreu has an 1.043 OPS in away matchups this year. Also, he has a .983 OPS over the last three weeks. Moncada is a switch hitter, so he can bat from the left side of the plate. His numbers are bad, but he's only played in 31 games and just returned from an injury. Last year he had an .816 OPS against righties as well.
