This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
DraftKings has decided to go with the afternoon slate for its featured contests. While it has excised the 12:35 p.m. ET start between the Rays and Reds, there are 10 games worth of players to pick from. Here are some DFS lineup recommendations for you.
Pitching
Justin Steele, CHC at OAK ($9,700): I don't think this is necessarily sustainable for Steele, as he has an 1.42 ERA through three starts. However, he quietly posted a 3.18 ERA (and 3.20 FIP) last year, his first full campaign as a starting pitcher. More to the point, the Athletics are looking like one of baseball's worst offenses, and they play in one of the friendliest ballparks for pitchers.
Alex Cobb, SF at MIA ($7,700): I'm a little concerned that Cobb hasn't made it to through four innings in two of his three starts, but he has a 3.14 ERA. Plus, last year he made 28 starts, and in 23 of them he went at least five innings, so this feels anomalous. The Marlins being in the bottom three in runs scored? That doesn't feel anomalous.
Martin Perez, TEX at KC ($7,400): Perez surprisingly returned to Texas in 2022 and posted a 2.89 ERA, and his 3.26 FIP was also the best of his career. While he has a 5.11 FIP through three starts, he has a 2.87 ERA, and so far he has had to face the Phillies, Cubs, and Astros. The Royals are struggling to get about .600 in team OPS to start 2023, so this is a major step down in terms of matchup.
Top Targets
Um, nevermind any worries about Marcus Semien ($5,700) having a slow start to the season. He's now homered in three-straight games, a reminder that he hit 45 home runs two seasons ago. Since joining the Rangers he's preferred to be on the road, as he had an .836 OPS in away games in 2022. Last season was the first time with an ERA under 4.00, but after allowing four homers to Atlanta in his last start, Brady Singer has a 7.88 ERA this year.
While he had more extra-base hits than walks, Willy Adames ($5,300) still pleased fantasy players thanks to his 31 home runs from the shortstop position. You don't have to worry about free swingers against Marco Gonzales, because few starters if any are less of a risk to strike out opposing batters. The lefty struck out a mere 5.07 batters per nine innings in 2022, and he's at 5.06 to start 2023. There's a reason he's had a FIP over 5.00 each of the last two campaigns.
Bargain Bats
Sure, Corbin Carroll ($4,100) may be allergic to walks at this point in his career, but he wasn't the top hitting prospect in baseball because of a keen sense of patience. No, it's more like the skills that have allowed him to hit .274 with four home runs and six stolen bases so far. Maybe he is this season's Julio Rodriguez. Jake Woodford primarily pitched in relief prior to this season, but since 2021 he's allowed lefties to hit .312 against him.
Even when he was a Rockie, Connor Joe ($3,800) didn't show a ton of power, but last year he had a .747 OPS at home and a .744 OPS against lefties. Well he's back at Coors on Wednesday, and he'll face a lefty in his former teammate Austin Gomber. Gomber has a 5.24 ERA since joining the Rockies, and he has an 8.16 ERA through three starts in 2023, even though two of those starts were on the road.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta at Padres (Nick Martinez): Austin Riley ($5,700), Matt Olson ($5,600), Sean Murphy ($4,800)
Martinez struggled mightily with the Rangers before disappearing to Japan to try and right the ship. He returned to MLB in 2022, mostly pitching in relief for the Padres, and he had a 4.42 FIP. Now a starter, Martinez has a 6.72 FIP through three starts. Even at Petco, I want to stack Atlanta players.
Riley is a guy who did remake himself as a player. Over the last three seasons he's slashed .289/.361/.530 and hit over 30 home runs in each of his last two campaigns. The lefty Olson is also a 30-homer kind of player, and last year he was better against righties (.824) as expected. However, he also was better on the road with his new team, putting up an .819 OPS in away games. Murphy, like Olson, is a former Athletic now in Atlanta. He's a catcher who popped 18 homers and added 37 doubles in 2022, and he's been hot to open the season with his new squad.
Cubs at Athletics (Mason Miller): Dansby Swanson ($5,500), Patrick Wisdom ($4,500), Cody Bellinger ($3,300)
The Cubs have gotten some unexpected offensive contributions to start 2023, but the iron is hot, so why not strike it? That is especially true with Miller making his MLB debut Wednesday. The 24-year-old is quite the unproven commodity. He made one start in Double-A, one start in Triple-A, and then got called up this season. Miller began last year in rookie ball! This is a tough matchup to throw a guy that raw into, and I think it might not go great for him.
Swanson has brought everything but the homers to start his Cubs tenure, but he's hit at least 25 homers in each of his last two seasons so that should change. He also stole a career-high 18 bases in 2022 but was caught seven times. The new base-stealing landscape could easily get him over 20 for the first time. Wisdom has already hit eight homers and obviously that is a big surprise, and assuredly not sustainable. That being said, he slugged .465 over the previous two seasons and hit at least 25 home runs in each of those campaigns. Bellinger's hot start is nice to see, after the struggles the one-time MVP experienced the last couple of years. Even with his issues, he hit 19 homers and stole 14 bases in 2022, and the lefty will be facing the right-handed Miller on Wednesday.
