Collette Calls: Value in the Scrap Heap for 2024

It is hard to believe this is the tenth time I've written this annual piece, but it is my favorite piece as it officially kicks off heavy lifting season for draft preparation. I have also contributed 100+ player profiles to the overall staff effort in recent weeks, but this article and the forthcoming bold prediction series is what I truly look forward to every winter as I stare out the window and wait for spring. 

I have a solid track record in this piece, with several big hits (and misses) each season. You can't hit them all, but the fact remains that there's plenty of value in the fantasy scrap heap every season. Previous seasons saw this article outline the upside to bargain finds such as Yandy Diaz, Lance Lynn, Brandon Nimmo, Corbin Burnes, Luis Arraez, C.J. Cron, Triston McKenzie and Tyler O'Neill before each player had breakout fantasy seasons. The following table shows the hitters and pitchers in last season's installment of this article, as well as their final earned auction value in 15 team standard mixed leagues and where they were being drafted when the article was written in early January:

Three out of the 15 players in the article worked out, with Rodriguez leading the charge. However, I'm not happy with a .200 batting average nor am I happy with how poorly my hitting spotlights worked out, as Belt was the only hitter to return any positive value on the season. As Moff Jerjerrod told Darth Vader in Return of the Jedi when Lord Vader visited the Death Star to communicate The Emperor's displeasure with the construction schedule, I shall double my efforts to improve this season and I hope you are more forgiving than the Imperial leadership. 

In order for players to qualify for this piece, I am looking for players whose ADP is currently outside the top 300 and who returned less than $5 of fantasy value in 2023. I'm using the ADP from the 19 different Draft Champions leagues which have already taken place as of writing, since that format results in 750 players being taken so just about everyone has an ADP. I am also avoiding any of the middle relievers featured in my most recent article.

Pitchers

Jon Gray had a terrible close to the season pitching through injuries (again) to the tune of a 5.32 ERA and a .291 opponent batting average. However, Gray did have a 3.29 ERA and a .230 batting average against before the break. The biggest problem for Gray last season was that the league punished his fastball (.346 BA, .551 SLG) while struggling to hit his breaking balls (.187 BA, .299 SLG) and his offspeed stuff (.211 BA, .268 SLG.) The expected stats for his fastball weren't great, but the pitch hadn't performed this poorly since 2019. He should be better and will enjoy the run support the loaded Texas lineup provides.

Varland debuted inauspiciously last year, allowing three homers in a start at Yankee Stadium which set the tone for his season as he would end up allowing multiple homers in half of his 10 starts before moving to the pen. He had one bad outing out of the bullpen while otherwise dominating opposing hitters. Minnesota has to replace both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray in their rotation, and Varland is one of the names being considered for another shot at starting. He struck out 159 batters in 149.2 innings of work, but the homers must be resolved for this to work out. As it is, Varland has a better than 20 percent whiff rate on all four of his offerings, so the pieces are there for him to be good if he can avoid serving up the longball. Paddack is the other name being considered now that he is a full two years recovered from his second Tommy John Surgery. Last season's body of work is too small to see whether Paddack finally has a breaking ball to go with his fastball/changeup combination, so we don't know whether he will be another Trevor Richards or not just yet. Richards was able to parlay a workable fastball and deadly changeup into 105 strikeouts over 72.2 innings last season, so there may be some hope for Paddack in 2024.

The other Gray (Josiah) nearly cut his 2022 homer total in half last season, but he still allowed multiple homers in 6 of his 30 outings while walking three or more batters in 17 of his starts. His breaking balls remain filthy pitches, generating swings and misses more than a third of the time, but opposing hitters have taken his fastball out of the yard 49 times over the past three seasons. He threw seven different pitch types last season as he continues to look for the best path forward to career success. He took positive steps forward in 2023, even if his current market value doesn't reflect that.

Manaea opted out of his deal with San Francisco, and who could blame him? He had some rather unusual usage last season and pitched to a 4.82 ERA and a .260 opponents' average as a starter but was tougher out of the pen in nearly twice the sample size with a 4.18 ERA, a .217 opponents' batting average and a 19% K-BB%. He isn't too far removed from being a successful starter, and perhaps landing in a spot that would use him in a regular bulk capacity could help Manaea deliver some late value. Martinez falls into a somewhat similar situation, as he's been a swingman for the past few seasons, using his breaking balls and offspeed stuff to get the job done. Martinez switched up his primary fastball last season from a four-seamer to a sinker, but it was still rather hittable. He has the repertoire to re-join the rotation on a new team, but like Manaea, he may be best served in a bulk role behind an opener.

Kopech is currently sitting outside the top 500, which would have been unthinkable even last year. A modern day Nuke Laloosh with all the talent in the world, but little command of where it is going. His three primary offerings generate swings and misses more than a quarter of the time, but he also served up 28 homers off those pitches. The hope here is that the combination of Brian Bannister in the front office and Ethan Katz in the dugout can finally get Kopech to achieve his abilities, as last season's recipe of walks and homers was an absolute disaster. 2021 was not that long ago, and perhaps that is the path forward for making Kopech great again. Speaking of walks and homers, Fujinami is looking for a new home for his fastball (which touches triple digits) along with his splitter and cutter. He quickly lost his spot in the rotation in Oakland but looked better out of the pen for both them and Baltimore. We are just a season removed from a reliever overcoming control problems to become a major force out of the pen with Yennier Cano, so is it that far-fetched to think that Fujinami could take off if he can find better control?

Finally, two names out of the pen — one we know a lot about, and one that's likely flown off your radar. Hoffman could always spin a breaking ball, but Coors Field made that problematic. His relocation to Cincinnati didn't help matters with his homers, but Hoffman found a home in Philly last year toiling in later leverage situations. Hoffman's .247 xwOBA was the fifth-best in baseball last season behind only Felix Bautista, Tarik Skubal, Josh Hader and Tanner Scott. Hoffman really leaned into his slider last year and the league couldn't do much with it, as its .074 average against and 44.6 percent whiff rate can attest. Jose Alvarado isn't exactly the model of health, as he twice went on the injured list in 2023 with forearm issues, and Hoffman has shown he has the stuff to step up big in late situations. White was someone who was turning so many heads in Grapefruit League play in 2022 that he nearly made the Opening Day roster before his elbow popped. Prior to last season's rehab work, White had struck out 133 batters in 81.2 innings in the minors. He will be two full years recovered from his surgery and likely one of the first names up from Durham if everything goes well this Grapefruit League season. 

Hitters

Rizzo's 2023 season was one to forget, and he likely forgot most of it considering he played through an undiagnosed concussion all summer long. He had 11 homers and a .303/.376/.507 triple-slash line before the concussive incident on May 28th and then went onto hit .174/.272/.227 with one homer the rest of the season. As long as the concussion symptoms are behind him, this early ADP is going to be comically low even as Rizzo is currently the 28th first baseman off the board. Anderson, too, was playing through an issue, but when he wasn't getting punched out in a fight he started, he was trying to play through a sprained knee — which did not go well. The knee is an easy way to write off Anderson's fall in sprint speed, as he went from a perennial top 25th percentile guy to one in the bottom 50th percentile overnight. A hitter is nothing without a healthy lower half, and Anderson's rapid decline at the plate after a solid four-year run of production was tough to watch. Shortstops don't age gracefully, but they also don't fall off a cliff this quickly.

Duvall had some moments of glory in Fenway with a strong start to the season and a red-hot August that saw him hit 9 homers and drive in 21 runs while hitting .304, but the ever-streaky slugger had more valleys than peaks in his charts. He can barrel a baseball with the best of them, but he also feels like Hunter Renfroe's long-lost twin brother with their matching arm strength and affinity for barreling baseballs around plenty of empty swings. You have to live with the batting average risk with Duvall, but getting 25+ homer potential in the reserve rounds certainly helps if you find yourself a little thin on power after the active phase of your draft. The same could be said with Tellez who hit 35 homers in 2021, but dealt with right forearm inflammation and a finger injury last season. Tellez is a much more disciplined hiter than Duvall, but his lack of speed robs him of more hits than the new shift rules could gift him. How much would Tellez's value bump should the Yankees decide to add him as a cheap insurance policy behind Rizzo? Just sayin'.

Vientos is a man without a position, both at draft day and with the Mets. His 19 games at third fell one game short of most qualifying rules, so his UT-only eligibility all but assures the talented slugger goes undrafted or runs late into the reserves. Vientos has not yet hit at the big-league level, but he's done too much hitting throughout his ascension in the New York system for fantasy managers to give up on him. Pederson is another bat-first hitter who couldn't repeat his 2022 success in his second full season with the Giants. There is still a lot to like in his offensive profile if he lands in the right park and grabs all the playing time against righties that the club can give him. His 2022 batting average (.274) may be tough to repeat again, but the power numbers are very repeatable for him.

Now we get to two players more well known for the time they continue to miss rather than what they do on the field. How far has Rendon fallen? So far that he's currently being drafted after a guy who has played all of 50 games over the past three seasons in Mondesi. The one-time speedster missed all of 2023 as his recovery from knee surgery never got to a point where he could resume play, so he now becomes a reclamation project at age 27 for another club. Billy Hamilton had a similar career demise at age 28, and Mondesi could very well do the same. Yet, there is the enticing thought that if his legs are great, it would be fun to see what Mondesi could do on the bases. Rendon has hit 22 homers in four seasons with the Angels while making $140M in that time. He still takes walks and does not strikeout, but when he does put the ball in play these days, little good happens. If this were a sale, Rendon's jersey is hanging on the clearance rack at an 80 percent discount on what he once was. The good news is that you now can just use a reserve pick to see if Rendon can finally have a somewhat productive season out west.

Lastly, we come to two interesting situations. Carlson needs a trade for any fantasy value to surface this season as the club has already said Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman and Jordan Walker are the leading candidates to start in the outfield with Tyler O'Neill and Carlson left fighting for scraps. Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Cardinals tend to run into outfield logjams and trade someone they later regret dealing as that player materializes elsewhere. I am not saying that Carlson is going to do what Tommy Pham, Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena did after they left St. Louis, but Carlson's prospect pedigree is not that far in the rearview mirror. Andujar made his way to Oakland this winter, but the club does not yet know where he is going to play. Andujar has never had a true defensive home, but he has the arm to play right field and could at least slot in as a platoon partner with Seth Brown given Andujar is out of options. Brown is also arbitration eligible after the 2024 season so there's no guarantee he even sticks around the entire year. In short, Andujar has a chance to get regular playing time at the big-league level in the land of fantasy misfits and hit .338/.404/.536 in Triple-A last season over 465 plate appearances.