This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Last week, I broke down pitchers who could potentially be on the move in the coming weeks. This week, I'm looking at hitters from teams with less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs by the Fangraphs odds as play began on June 29th.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (40.1% chance)
Shohei Ohtani was covered last week
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
One has to believe this club will wait until the last possible moment to make any moves given that they have already acquired both Moustakas and Escobar in separate deals. They continue their attempt to maximize their final year of the Dynamic Duo, but the odds favor the Astros moving forward despite the Angels having the better record. Renfroe's power hitting could be a nice fit with several contenders, opening up a potential return to his old stomping grounds in Milwaukee or a move to Cleveland, who continue to search for offense most nights. One would have to imagine Jo Adell, currently hitting .276/.368/.579 with 21 homers in Triple-A, would be the biggest beneficiary of any playing time should an outfielder be dealt.
Cleveland Guardians (35.2% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
Bell has only recently begun showing signs of life offensively and it would be unlikely he decides to opt out of a guaranteed payday of $16.5M for 2024 unless he has a tremendous second half.
Last week, I broke down pitchers who could potentially be on the move in the coming weeks. This week, I'm looking at hitters from teams with less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs by the Fangraphs odds as play began on June 29th.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (40.1% chance)
Shohei Ohtani was covered last week
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
One has to believe this club will wait until the last possible moment to make any moves given that they have already acquired both Moustakas and Escobar in separate deals. They continue their attempt to maximize their final year of the Dynamic Duo, but the odds favor the Astros moving forward despite the Angels having the better record. Renfroe's power hitting could be a nice fit with several contenders, opening up a potential return to his old stomping grounds in Milwaukee or a move to Cleveland, who continue to search for offense most nights. One would have to imagine Jo Adell, currently hitting .276/.368/.579 with 21 homers in Triple-A, would be the biggest beneficiary of any playing time should an outfielder be dealt.
Cleveland Guardians (35.2% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
Bell has only recently begun showing signs of life offensively and it would be unlikely he decides to opt out of a guaranteed payday of $16.5M for 2024 unless he has a tremendous second half. Bell has played for four teams over the past three seasons so he may be looking to play in the same place in consecutive seasons rather than be on the move again. Rosario has thus far hurt his free agent value with a poor season at the plate and has struggled in the field, so perhaps a trade should Cleveland change directions helps snap him out of it, as he hardly resembles the fantasy bargain he was in 2022. Rosario's playing time could go to Brayan Rocchio, who is on the 40-man roster and is hitting .279 with 16 steals in Triple-A Columbus.
San Diego Padres (25.0% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
If the Padres don't turn it around soon, they'll likely sell these bench parts off to other clubs looking for more depth, but I don't personally see how any of these types is going to gain value in a new location. I honestly do not see much fantasy relevance either with these names departing or with anyone who fills in the depth chart as this offense has been one of the worst in baseball with runners in scoring position as you may have seen in a recent installment of the Joe Sheehan newsletter. Don't believe him? Check out the "leaderboard."
Cincinnati Reds (20.3% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
Votto is back and the Reds have certainly been more entertaining to watch of late than they were two months ago. They still have an uphill climb with the Brewers the overwhelming favorite in the projected odds given that likely only one team from the NL Central is making the playoffs. The fact Cincinnati currently leads the division and yet their playoff odds are thirty percentage points lower than Milwaukee's tells you all you need to know about this situation. It would be a crushing dénouement to what has been one of the best baseball stories of the summer if the Reds made the decision to trade the elder statesman of their franchise, unless that trade meant sending him home to Toronto to boost their postseason chances.
Chicago Cubs (15.4% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
- none
Options:
- Cody Bellinger (mutual options)
- Trey Mancini (player option)
- Yan Gomes (club option)
- Tucker Barnhart (player option)
We're all still holding out hope for Bellinger to look anything like he did from 2017 to 2019, but we aren't holding our breath. The expected boon of hitting in a weaker division and in Wrigley Field has not played out as anticipated, and the fact he hasn't even played 50 games yet this season around his injury hasn't helped. One could make the case he currently resembles the 2018 version of himself, but that player played in every game that season while this one has not. The other players would be complementary players in other places, much as they are here.
Boston Red Sox (13.3% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
Duvall is the most intriguing of the UFAs because of his power upside. He has struggled mightily since returning from his wrist injury, managing just one homer in 68 plate appearances, so his value will be diminished. Hernandez hasn't been the same valuable, versatile guy as he was previously and Mondesi is like "fetch" — it's never going to happen. Turner has a player option but would be risking things to decline a guaranteed $13.4M next season to hit the free agent market as a 39-year-old. Should playing time open up, the speedy David Hamilton could benefit from the time in the outfield.
Seattle Mariners (12.8% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- None
Seattle's magic last year was built upon one-run wizardry, which is not a skill as much as chance, so their struggles this year are not terribly surprising. They have enough young, talented pitching to keep things interesting, but their offense has been problematic all season long. Pollock and Wong were being counted on to provide some help, but even combining their efforts doesn't match a replacement-level player, while Hernandez has done his part with homers, but the adjustment from Rogers Centre has been an expected struggle. Hernandez could find better power pastures with a trade at the deadline should Seattle see the reality in front of them in time.
New York Mets (11.3% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- Omar Narvaez (player option)
- Mark Canha (club option)
Little has gone well for the Mets this season, but that isn't Pham's fault. Pham has a 129 wRC+ this season with 8 homers and 9 steals along with a .273 batting average. His career .354 on-base percentage could be a nice fit in a contender's lineup looking for OBP skills and his passion for fantasy football. Pham has hit very well of late and should be moved to a team (Cleveland) looking for offense (Cleveland) and some more veteran leadership down the stretch, like Cleveland. Once Pham is dealt, maybe Mark Vientos can finally get the playing time his upside deserves.
St. Louis Cardinals (8.1% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
- None
Options:
- Paul DeJong (club option)
The team could consider dangling the final year and a half of Paul Goldschmidt, but they would righteously want a ton for that at this time. DeJong is more marketable given his defensive flexibility and power upside in what is essentially a walk year.
Chicago White Sox (6.5% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- Tim Anderson (club option)
I honestly expect all three to find new homes as the club looks to hit the reset button on what has been a disastrous season. That said, I'm not sure any of these players get the same volume of playing time they get with Chicago. Anderson has been a massive disappointment this season, while Andrus returned to his former terrible self and Grandal is aging by the month before our eyes.
Pittsburgh Pirates (5.3% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- none
There are other players on their UFA list, but McCutchen is the only one with any fantasy value. The homecoming story was nice, but Cutch deserves better in what could possibly be his final year than merely playing out the season. He has a .395 on-base percentage this year and is a homer and steal away from a double-double season. He could be a very nice piece for a contending team looking for an experienced right-handed bat and some OBP skills, such as Minnesota. I don't believe his playing time will be impacted by a relocation should one come about.
Detroit Tigers (2.1% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
- Javier Baez (opt out at $25M)
There is next to zero chance Baez opts out of his deal, which will pay him $98M over the course of the next four seasons. He is a shortstop in his 30s and that position simply does not age well, and he's already problematic. Any trades in Detroit will be minor from the hitting side of the ledger as there simply isn't anything here of any value.
Kansas City Royals (0.0% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- none
All the focus for trades with this team is in their bullpen. Duffy will likely find a new home but will see his playing time reduced, which impacts three of you forced to roster him in 12-team AL-only leagues.
Oakland Athletics (0.0% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Options:
- Manny Pina (club option)
I don't even know what to say here. Kemp's positional versatility could be traded to another club, but he isn't even rosterable in mono-league formats right now unless you're in a 12-team league and dealing with injuries.
Colorado Rockies (0.0% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
- None
All four of these players should be traded, but given it's the Rockies, I am guessing maybe two of them will be. Cron's value is typically enhanced by playing at Coors, but he's been a better run producer on the road this season (86 wRC+) than home (55 wRC+) with disappointing overall numbers. Grichuk is the only player who we've seen produce well away from Coors, but that too was enhanced by Rogers Centre. This team is terrible for a reason, and these four underperforming bats are a reason why. I wouldn't expect anyone to gain value in a new home, but playing time could open up more for Michael Toglia.
Washington Nationals (0.0% chance)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Player Options:
- None
Candelario is one of the more intriguing names who should be available, as he's having a solid season both at the plate and in the field for the Nationals. He's playing every single day with the non-contending club, but there are several contending teams dealing with below-average offensive output from the hot corner such as Milwaukee, Miami, New York and Philadelphia. How nice would Candelario look in Brewer pinstripes, allowing Brian Anderson to move to platoon situation that he is better suited for?
All in all, I do not expect much from the hitting trade front after writing this list, as some of the bigger names are on teams that may just push through and see what happens. I'm more focused on some of the lesser adds such as Candelario, McCutchen and Pham, who could see their fantasy fortunes improve in better lineups.
