This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Sunday, April 6
Thanks to the incessant garbage weather in Stillwater this season, Oklahoma State has had another game postponed. Now, that should be a Sunday doubleheader. The Sunday slate is a tad limited this weekend, but I found something worth playing.
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California vs Clemson Odds
Clemson Tigers (-188)
Cal Golden Bears (+145)
Total: 14 (O: -115 | U: -115)
The Clemson Tigers were the subject of this week's Future Wednesday article in the form of winning the ACC. Thus far, they've taken two from the Cal Bears, coming off a 13-3 mercy win Saturday. Going for the sweep is always difficult, no matter who you play. I have been wrestling with the decision to take either the game line or Clemson team total, but I'll tell you why I like the game line better.
Granted, the Tigers scoring eight runs at -115 is still a solid look, coming off putting up a baker's dozen. This season I have avoided Clemson on the line because their usual Sunday starter, Justin LeGuernic, is absolutely dreadful. This week though, they're rolling out BJ Bailey, a primary reliever who may be working his way into a more full-time starter role.
Bailey's 0.65 ERA, and 33 K/10 BB ratio in 27.2 innings has provided a lot of stability for this team. In his first start against a dangerous Georgia Tech lineup last week on the road, Bailey was marvelous, and I like him for a strong encore. In a series deciding win last Sunday, he went 6.2 innings, allowing 1 run, and 8 K's. Facing a Bears lineup that's scored only seven runs this series, there should be an opportunity for a good outing.
The biggest thing for the Bears offense has been power (44 homers). They have limited speed and don't get on base a ton (.368 OBP). It's primarily three good hitters for them in Jarren Advincula (.389 average/1.036 OPS/5 homers), Cade Campbell (.387 average/1.1119 OPS/8 homers), and Jacob French (.374 average/.988 OPS). As long as Bailey can keep the ball in the yard, there's a good chance he can hold this offense down.
Cal will be going with Ethan Foley and his 7.30 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. While he doesn't walk batters (5 in 24.2 innings), he does give up homers (6). Foley has been a disaster this year. Coming off allowing six earned against Louisville last week, four runs (in 5.1 IP) the week before against San Francisco, and four earned the week before (1.2 IP) against UVA, the Tigers offense should be able to inflict damage.
On paper, the Clemson offense hasn't lived up to their potential, but it's still been pretty solid for them. The Tigers have 37 homers, 42 bags (48 tries), and a .423 OBP has provided enough production combined with their pitching to lead them to a 29-5 (8-3 ACC) record. Tough there's only three hitters with a .300+ average (Jarren Purify, Cam Cannarella, Dom Listi), everybody in this lineup contributes something positive. The pitching advantage is a big decider for Sunday, though. Furthermore, Cal has lost every Sunday game this season except for one, whereas Clemson has taken four of their last five including wins against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina. I know sweeps are tough, but let's roll with the Tigers.
Pick: Clemson ML -188 (DK)
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